TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[jelloslug]

He was on Twitter yesterday - just re-Tweeting some stuff, not his own musings...

But I'm pretty sure he's thinking that "this stock is about to take off to the moon any time now, maybe as soon as tomorrow".

And this time he's probably correct.

$400 by friday!!1!!one!eleven

 

[Tslynk67]

$400 by friday!!1!!one!eleven

If it did, just if it did, then isn't that a big enough catalyst for a squeeze, or is that already a squeeze in itself, shaking out the weak retail shorts?

 

[mongo]

Who still believes that short squeeze is imminent?

Mongo does.
Mongo thinks the earthquake needed to cause the tsunami has already happened, though it may only look like a ripple upon the sea, the ripple is many miles long representing a massive volume of displaced liquidity that shall soon crash upon the shore and, as it does, rise to a massive breaker.

But Mongo only pawn in game of life...

 

[zdriver]

I just got a call from risk management at my broker.

What broker, if you don't mind my asking?

 

[shlokavica22]

If it did, just if it did, then isn't that a big enough catalyst for a squeeze, or is that already a squeeze in itself, shaking out the weak retail shorts?

As someone mentioned earlier in the thread, the fact that IB increased the margin requirement for TSLA will only help squeezing the retail shorts.

But Mongo only pawn in game of life

Let's hope Mongo right.

 

[hoang51]

I just got a call from risk management at my broker. They are calling those with high concentrations of TSLA to inform based on in house experts and options activity, they see a 37% move in the stock after earnings release tomorrow. If on the downside, that would create a call for my portfolio (37%!!!...no *sugar*) so they asked me to keep an eye and be ready to either sell some stock or make a deposit. Never had a call like that before in my 35 years of trading. Trying to stay rational (I am long) despite the unprecedented amount of FUD...this being the icing on the cake. Tomorrow will be huge either way....I certainly hope the market reacts to bad earning in a good way as it has acted in a bad way with positive earnings elsewhere as of late. Getting the popcorn out and the checkbook ready....it will take a lot more than I have seen to shake me out of my long position.

Hmmm...

So my first thought is what information are they basing this recommendation on?

Dan

It's in the second sentence of IamJohnGalt message: based on in house experts and options activity. What constitute the supportive evidence for the house experts to determine such move, who knows... Maybe from a flip of a coin?

 

[shortburn]

Who still believes that short squeeze is imminent?

Let's go.

 

[Lessmog]

It's in the second sentence of IamJohnGalt message: based on in house experts and options activity. What constitute the supportive evidence for the house experts to determine such move, who knows... Maybe from a flip of a coin?

Or a monkey throw? I hear there's been some cruelty to monkeys from the anti-Tesla creVW.

 

[shlokavica22]

I hear there's been some cruelty to monkeys from the anti-Tesla creVW.

For the people not getting the hint, clues here: Dirty Money | Netflix Official Site

 

[YasB]

Why would longs try to prop up the stock? We're confident it will get there eventually. Perhaps some traders desperately want it to go up so they can sell an down again to buy, rinse and repeat ... but longs confidently hold.

Fine, let's go with that. It should be easy to see, that shorts are confident that the stock will trade lower. Otherwise they wouldn't be short. So why would they try to talk down the stock? The same logic is applicable there.

If you believe, that it is possible to simply talk the share price of a big company up or down over a prolonged period of time, who would have the bigger incentive to do so? That Jim Chanos guy has about $2b assets under management, quite a bit is in long positions and usually that money seems to be scattered among dozens of different investments. I'd be really surprised to learn, he has put more than a $100 million or so in a Tesla short. The bigger institutions own between 1 and 4.5 billion in Tesla stock. Where are the accusations that those guys prop up the share price? Let's just assign a value of $30b to Tesla mobility. I mean, why not? For some longs it seems to be completely unthinkable, that Mr. Musk is saying things every now and then, simply to help the share price before a capital raise or get a bond deal done.

Now let's look at the smaller fish for a moment, shall we? If you read TMC only, it's obvious that guys like Montana Sceptic or other shorts on Twitter and SA are lying all the time, making up stuff to influence the price and are probably paid by somebody else. It's often regarded as improbable, that those guys are honestly convinced of what they say. It has to be some kind of evil cabal, since every person opening their eyes can clearly see why Tesla will prosper. Shortie has been wrong with his assumptions! He's a liar! And an idiot! At the same time, people like ValueAnalyst or Victor Dergunov have been quite wrong with some of their past projections too, because ... well, projections are hard. Everybody gets it wrong from time to time.

Why is it like that? Imho, the same level of criticism, scrutiny, trust and goodwill should be applied to both sides of the trade. Everything else leads to bias, which is just a milder form of self-deception and usually not a good thing.

It's in the second sentence of IamJohnGalt message: based on in house experts and options activity. What constitute the supportive evidence for the house experts to determine such move, who knows... Maybe from a flip of a coin?

I would think overleveraged shorts may get the same warning call? I've seen this sometimes with european brokers, when they expected higher than usual volatility after certain events and they've been raising margin requirements for shorts and longs. (The Brexit votum comes to mind) ... It's not hard to imagine a polarizing and volatile stock like TSLA can lead to a lot of margin calls, if you are on the wrong side of the trade and enough people panic.

 

[HG Wells]

Yeah. Must be the Martians.

NO !
After receiving the beautiful red roadster that Elon so graciously delivered to us, we made the offer to sell up to one half the surface area of mars.
The agreed upon price was one model 3 per hundred square miles.

There is no way that we would interfere with Tesla.

Martian Supreme Comand

 

[RobStark]

I have called $400 no later than Valentines Day 2019

RobStark much better at predicting the future and strategizing on that vision of the future than Mongo. Sometimes it pays to be smart.

 

[jhm]

Reports Panasonic will expand from run rate of 27 GWh to 35 GWh by end of year.

Incremental 8 GWh is enough to increase Model 3 production by about 2000 per week.

 

[oneday]

Who still believes that short squeeze is imminent?

The squeeze is on Tesla time.

I’ve said this before and I think it bears repeating. The short burn cannot happen until all the not-a-flamethrowers are delivered. Coincidentally, I was just invited to a SF delivery event on 8/25. So this is indeed good news.

Off topic: I think I should really get on my business idea of selling Tesla branded shorts. The delivery event would be a perfect opportunity for some marketing. I just need a good business name. Who wears short shorts?

 

[Lessmog]

I’ve said this before and I think it bears repeating. The short burn cannot happen until all the not-a-flamethrowers are delivered. Coincidentally, I was just invited to a SF delivery event on 8/25. So this is indeed good news.

Off topic: I think I should really get on my business idea of selling Tesla branded shorts. The delivery event would be a perfect opportunity for some marketing. I just need a good business name. Who wears short shorts?

If you can time it right for delivery, you might call them Hot Pants On Fire?

 

[jelloslug]

Fine, let's go with that. It should be easy to see, that shorts are confident that the stock will trade lower. Otherwise they wouldn't be short. So why would they try to talk down the stock? The same logic is applicable there.

If you believe, that it is possible to simply talk the share price of a big company up or down over a prolonged period of time, who would have the bigger incentive to do so? That Jim Chanos guy has about $2b assets under management, quite a bit is in long positions and usually that money seems to be scattered among dozens of different investments. I'd be really surprised to learn, he has put more than a $100 million or so in a Tesla short. The bigger institutions own between 1 and 4.5 billion in Tesla stock. Where are the accusations that those guys prop up the share price? Let's just assign a value of $30b to Tesla mobility. I mean, why not? For some longs it seems to be completely unthinkable, that Mr. Musk is saying things every now and then, simply to help the share price before a capital raise or get a bond deal done.

Now let's look at the smaller fish for a moment, shall we? If you read TMC only, it's obvious that guys like Montana Sceptic or other shorts on Twitter and SA are lying all the time, making up stuff to influence the price and are probably paid by somebody else. It's often regarded as improbable, that those guys are honestly convinced of what they say. It has to be some kind of evil cabal, since every person opening their eyes can clearly see why Tesla will prosper. Shortie has been wrong with his assumptions! He's a liar! And an idiot! At the same time, people like ValueAnalyst or Victor Dergunov have been quite wrong with some of their past projections too, because ... well, projections are hard. Everybody gets it wrong from time to time.

Why is it like that? Imho, the same level of criticism, scrutiny, trust and goodwill should be applied to both sides of the trade. Everything else leads to bias, which is just a milder form of self-deception and usually not a good thing.



I would think overleveraged shorts may get the same warning call? I've seen this sometimes with european brokers, when they expected higher than usual volatility after certain events and they've been raising margin requirements for shorts and longs. (The Brexit votum comes to mind) ... It's not hard to imagine a polarizing and volatile stock like TSLA can lead to a lot of margin calls, if you are on the wrong side of the trade and enough people panic.

The big guys that are long are not on CNBC, Twitter, SA and any other platform trying to sell up the stock every single day,.

 

[scaesare]

. It's often regarded as improbable, that those guys are honestly convinced of what they say.

It's improbable as a result of their reaction to the assertions they make when rebutted with factual evidence and they do one of more of the following:

• Ignore the facts presented to them
• Sidestep by making a new specious assertion
• Block ther person providing the rebuttal
• Repeat the disinformation after having the facts presented

Example: "Tesla loses money on every car they produce, therefore the higher the production, the more dire their financial situation."

It's been pointed out as untrue when this originally came up for the S & X, and yet it was repeated. It's been pointed out that there's a crossover point where economies of scale kick in for the 3 for it also to have positive margin as well.

Yet just a week ago Spiegel vomited that nonsense again in response to Dan Neil's review.

So at least accusing them of being disingenuous leaves the possibility for intelligence. The other explanation is they are imbeciles.

Incidentally, I have no problem disagreeing with a long for the same reasons... and I have done so.

 

[Causalien]

He was on Twitter yesterday - just re-Tweeting some stuff, not his own musings...

But I'm pretty sure he's thinking that "this stock is about to take off to the moon any time now, maybe as soon as tomorrow".

And this time he's probably correct.

In one of his posts, he was challenging shorts to bring the stock price down below $300 cause that's where he'll get margin called. Sad day for someone on the same team.

 

[Lessmog]

In one of his posts, he was challenging shorts to bring the stock price down below $300 cause that's where he'll get margin called. Sad day for someone on the same team.

Yes. Still, he's a big boy and doesnt afraid of anything.
Me, I made some $20 only since yesterday on my 2 shares. Which translates to a whole bunch in his wallet.

 

[Tslynk67]

Bit of a buying spree here at the end of the day...