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TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

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A lot of retail investors are waking up and realizing the price difference between 380 and 420 isn’t worth the risk to hold on. If you need the investment money, selling now is prudent. Myself, I more than doubled my long position at this price point yesterday. I’ll take every freebie Elon throws my way (last one was the SCTY arb). When the deal is finalized, I may very well sell that large stake I bought yesterday at 420, just keeping my regular long position in private Tesla.

If the deal falls apart (very unlikely IMHO), I’ll be stuck holding a bunch of TSLA stock for quite a while I suspect.

Speaking for this retail investor: We are good owning Tesla public, we are good owning Tesla private, we are good with $k a share squeeze pricing, we are good with $420 a share, we are good holding.

11.3 million shares in 62 minutes: slowing down and climbing up?
Expect investors are acquiring...
 
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Are you counting registered debt holders? Asset Line creditors?

I haven't finished reading, but $420/share is well above "par" share price for all TSLA convertible notes (nearly $3.3 billion principal outstanding).

"
If: ... we are a party to a consolidation, merger, combination, statutory or binding share exchange or similar transaction involving us pursuant to which our common stock would be converted into, or exchanged for, cash, securities or other property or assets, or any sale, conveyance, lease or other transfer or similar transaction in one transaction or a series of transactions of all or substantially all of the consolidated assets of ours and our subsidiaries, taken as a whole, the notes may be surrendered by a holder for conversion at any time from or after the date that is 30 scheduled trading days prior to the anticipated effective date of the transaction (or, if later, the business day after we give notice of such transaction) until the close of business on the 35th trading day after the actual effective date of such transaction or, if such transaction also constitutes a fundamental change, until the close of business on the business day immediately preceding the relevant fundamental change purchase date.


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sorry for pic - didn’t have time upload_2018-8-8_10-40-4.jpeg to look up link online
 
So that was a big drop from 383 to 373 in about 5 mins and now a slow climb. Anyone think this could be shaping up to be a bear attack like July 3? Sudden dump, slow buy back, sudden dump etc.?

It was likely an attempt to drop the price, but the demand prevented it (and only so many share available). At this point, I consider all purchasers as planing to hold until 400+ thus taking them off the table in the near term....
(but I'm mongo...)
 
This local intraday stabilization is still $4 above the open price.

I think for near term stock movement prices (which don't matter to long longs), the most important post today was Neroden pointing out the thing that was pointed out yesterday:

Remember that margin calls aren't always made instantly; they usually go out the next day, and then aren't due for some days. For instance, for long share margin I get 4 trading days on my account from the time of margin call for regular margin calls. For instance, the causing event happens on the 27th, the call goes out on the 30th, and it's due the 3rd. That's event + 5 trading days.

Sure, the holding companies could be doing different things for different holders, but there is going to be some days, probably event + 5, for this to take hold. Tuesday event, Wednesday call, Th Fr Mo Tuesday could be the day it's due. And it might not even be due til the end of business day. Some others will owe it sooner or later; is there a rule about that?

There's always the "at any time" clause, but I'm guessing anybody who hasn't had the rug pulled out from under them today will probably not get much activity until something big happens like a solid offer from the board, or some solid information about what buyers and shareholders are interested in; actual experienced traders could offer some insight into that, but they'd be making better guesses than me is all. There might be a little bit of end of week book closing going on such as with weekly options.

I like that trading means you really have to know English. For instance, "margin call" is different than "call option". "Long term" is much different than "I am long". "Long term short" and "long term long" mean two totally different things, whereas "short term long" and "long term long" are a matter of strategy and action. (Short means bet against and long means bet for, unless it's a modifier for time, in which case it's a modifier for time.) (I have an idea of how it's historically derived; to be long would have been to bet for the company; to buy it for a quick short term trade would have had a less interested look at the long view of the company so not been as convinced about its total outcome. The only meaningful use of that sense today is to say "I'm long" which is to say you are betting for it.)
 
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Any possibility Apple is one of the many funding this deal?

I always thought Apple as a company that melts software and hardware together should jump for real into the much bigger hardware market mobility and bring their ecosystem with them, an electric car with IOS, Siri, and all the other stuff makes perfect sense, that said, I don't see a coherent plan of Apple when it comes to cars and there are no hints that Apple is interested in Tesla.

I think it has something to do with the Saudis
It seems that the Saudis wanted to buy primary newly issued shares from Tesla and Elon was not a fan of it and let it pass (btw. another example that the short thesis Tesla can't raise more money it nuts). There are now two possibilities why he was not a fan of it a) he had no interest to unnecessary dilute the stock but was interested to get the company private and he found with the Saudis finally the heavy pockets to do it b) after Musk found out that the Saudi muscled their way in the stock anyway he thought **** this I go private.
 
Grrr... I'm so frustrated!!! Opened new trading account yesterday and it said it would fund in 30 minutes. This morning tried to get in at 367, and no go. Have to wait until my bank opens in an hour and a half. meanwhile, my other trading account is maxed out

I have to roll over an old 401k to an IRA to enable brokerage... well, we'll see....

750k shares in 4 minutes: $7 drop
233k shares in 1 minute: $4 drop
$4 net change to present: priceless.
 
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Apple likes to have control, over everything. It is pretty unlikely Tesla would give them control.

Google ventures, Sequoia and other VCs are likely suspects. Some money may come from China.

Apple is certainly one of many possible candidates. Remember the constant stream of "Apple should buy Tesla!" articles from analysts over the course of this year? They're flush with cash and seem not to know what to do with it.

The Saudi Sovereign Wealth Fund is another one. They're worth trillions and looking for good hedges against oil.

I'd also add the Norwegian Sovereign Wealth Fund. Huge fund, they only do environmentally friendly / morally responsible investment, and the country is big on EVs in general and Teslas in particular.

China these days seems to be throwing cash at anything that moves, particularly if it has a plug.

Should we bother to bring up that Musk is good friends with Larry Page?

There's tons of possibilities.

It's important to remember that $420 is only 20% more than $350. They're not offering that huge of a premium for investment in a private Tesla over a public one. And for that, they get to kick out all of the shorts that are driving down the price at present.
 
Speaking for this retail investor:
We are good owning Tesla public,
we are good owning Tesla private,
we are good with $k a share squeeze pricing,
we are good with $420 a share,
we are good holding.

...

OT, but I was waiting for the closing line that rhymes, as this really does read like a Dr. Seuss story (I mean this as a compliment).:D
 
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So basically the conversion rate is proportional to the change in market cap (+ cashout). So if this is considered a tender offer, then if the stock is trading below the tender offer price immediately before the stock is purchased away, the convertible holders will get more stock to reflect the arbitrage gap.
 
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