TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[cheshire cat]

Pedo dip! Nice option opportunity before we move into profitability. When are 3Q earning out?

Not sure you haven't just invented a new phrase there.

 

[beachbum77]

The term "Market Manipulation" from you of all people? Really? Now THAT'S funny.

Dan

Glad I could provide you some humor on this otherwise gloomy TSLA day.

 

[AWDtsla]

August 2018 YTD U.S. Passenger Car Sales Rankings - Best-Selling Cars In America -

Model 3 is #5 best selling passenger car in US last month, up 2 spots from July.

If you add up their total for Model 3, it comes out to under 57k. Bloomberg is reporting 84k today. That's quite a spread.

 

[ZachF]

Check this out, August sales by brand:
U.S. Auto Sales Brand Rankings - August 2018 YTD -

TESLA is now brand-wide outselling Audi, BMW and Mercedes!!

 

[dmckinstry]

I now regret giving you a sincere reply earlier. Please consider it revoked... to you only.

Well he's confirmed his true nature when insisting on calling Elon's predictions/goals/aspirations as "promises".

 

[OBX John]

I put a "buy" order in at 280 some months ago... and today it looks like I'm now an official TSLA shareholder! Hello everyone! ;-)

 

[Matias]

I can't understand this price action.

 

[K_Dizzle]

If you add up their total for Model 3, it comes out to under 57k. Bloomberg is reporting 84k today. That's quite a spread.

BloombeRg estimates production these are sales

 

[N5329K]

I can't understand this price action.

Try "Twitter".
Robin

 

[MarcusMaximus]

August 2018 – 20,450 Tesla Model 3 sold, according to estimates from "Good and Bad car". For the first month, Tesla is in the top 10 for cars sold in US, including ICE.

Miguel PeraIv0 on Twitter

That’s a minimum(assuming 100% of those were RWD black Model 3s with no options) of $1,000,000,000 in revenue on the 3s alone, just for August.

 

[uselesslogin]

Check this out, August sales by brand:
U.S. Auto Sales Brand Rankings - August 2018 YTD -

TESLA is now brand-wide outselling Audi, BMW and Mercedes!!

Also, 450% yoy growth.

 

[jkirkwood001]

I don't believe Bloomberg's estimation model, because the calculations that go into that model are public and can be manipulated.

See this thread: TeslaCharts on Twitter

Specifically, this:

I assume your point is that their are some very high outliers. Even if true (which I doubt since I saw a photo of a VIN in the upper 90k's) just a visual examination supports a total production in the 80k range that Bloomberg is reporting. What bothers me, and seemingly no one else, is that the latest reported VIN in the chart is more than ten days old. Look at the line at the bottom for 9/2. Today's chart is exactly the same except it shows 9/4. The most recently added point was about 8/20. What good is this chart if you're not going to keep it current?

I got VIN 5YJ3E1EB8JF107xxx yesterday by email from my DA. I submitted to Bloomberg but the chart doesn't reflect it yet, or even go above 100xxx.

 

[FS_FRA]

I had to finally sign up here to be able to put a bunch of people on Ignore.... the forum which I've been reading for a couple of years now has become - almost - unreadable without "Ignore"....

Long-term long. Buy+Hold. Don't care about volatility, fully believe in this company.

Have a sell-order in for my total TSLA holdings @ €3000

 

[MarcusMaximus]

If you add up their total for Model 3, it comes out to under 57k. Bloomberg is reporting 84k today. That's quite a spread.

I don’t think that’s right... that site shows 59,000 just YTD, not counting any from 2017(granted, that doesn’t add that much).

 

[bdy0627]

as far as total port-
i’m kinda loaded on stk right now. not looking to add a significant amount more unless it drops further.

trying to salvage some options contracts
sept - lost cause
oct - most likely lost cause
dec - trying to avg down
jan:
- exercised one position based upon private prospects and loading up on shrs (hence the reason i’m not adding a significant amount more)
- other contracts not touching

this last month hasn’t been good to me, i know i’m not alone. such is tsla

still waiting for 3 delivery. maybe that will cheer me up. but not likely, i was up 2Ps now down a base (chump change for some of you, i know).

positioned for comeback though. if it doesn’t comeback well then this will be the most expensive purchase i’ve ever made. life goes on. still have health, fam, and friends. and the dog is relatively happy hahha

You definitely are not alone in having options deeply red from this latest drop. This was about like a black swan event for me due to adding options when the stock was up high when I would typically never add them. Depending upon your strikes, I wouldn't say any are a lost cause yet. September monthlies (SEP21) still have 12 trading days. That's quite a bit yet. October and beyond are still totally in play. If strikes are way out of the money in SEP and OCT, you will probably lose some money there. Consider shifting a small amount to shorter term lower strike once this dip bottoms. That's what I'm looking at. I'm also shifting some to June 2019 OTM for more time safety.

 

[Fact Checking]

I can't understand this price action.

The $TSLA drop at the beginning of the day was in lock-step with the -1.5% drop on NASDAQ, i.e. standard correlation. The high volume spikes looked like long position stop orders cascading.

Rest of the day so far was dip-buying with a fair amount of shorts covering as well I believe: $280 price levels are pretty good to cover at, for those shorts that shorted at around $300 levels sometime during the year and who have no intention to risk holding a short position across the Q3 deliveries and production letter which is only 3.5 weeks away, and the Q3 quarterly report which is 7.5 weeks away.

There was no significant TLSA-specific selling pressure that I've seen so far, price action was mainly macro driven.

I'd hate calling a bottom because the probability of getting the call right is so low statistically, but during most of the day buying pressure was at least equal to selling pressure, despite the very negative macro environment. Absent some negative event it's a pretty good discount if you are bullish about the rest Tesla's financial year.

 

[Dan Detweiler]

Try "Twitter".
Robin

I follow Elon on Twitter. I have seen nothing controversial from him for a while. What did I miss?

Dan

 

[LordAstinus]

I follow Elon on Twitter. I have seen nothing controversial from him for a while. What did I miss?

Dan

Ryan Mac on Twitter

 

[Sabre Man]

That’s a minimum(assuming 100% of those were RWD black Model 3s with no options) of $1,000,000,000 in revenue on the 3s alone, just for August.

And don't forget Canada. Does anyone have any numbers for Canada?

 

[Zaxxon]

InsideEVs is now out with their estimates, which are more conservative than Good Car Bad Car. I've updated my chart to reflect InsideEVs' estimates, and have added a brand total US marketshare number. If InsideEVs' #s are correct, Tesla is now selling more vehicles in the US than Audi or Mercedes-Benz. BMW is ahead by only about 500 vehicles and will likely fall in Sept.