TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[Revhappy2]

Does your crystal ball say we’re done falling?

I wish I knew But if I have to guess, whatever bad news had to come out has come out, I cant imagine anything worse until the most awaited Q3 deliveries and profitability. I think all the drama is over for now and TSLA can start its boring slow climb back up to the 300 level and then the ER will dictate how the price moves from there.

 

[gringotuanis]

I hear you. Samsung as a phone manufacturer? And I'm concerned for the American car companies, but I think Toyota is going to do fine with EV. They are currently king and I think will remain there.

I'd be surprised (though, being a shareholder, ecstatic) if Tesla ever became a major car manufacturer, but I think they will remain like Apple -- producing quality products with the industry's highest margins but having a minority market share. Musk isn't interested in dominating the automotive market, just pushing it to EV sooner rather than later. (With other energy related goals as well, but that is outside the automotive market).

Even with Tesla breaking ground I think another startup would be a major undertaking and you'd be chasing the leader (Tesla) while having no market recognition.

Personally, I think Musk will succeed and force the other manufacturer's to adopt EV. It may take a long time and, IMO, they will suffer more the longer they take to do it. Egregious delays will only give further opportunity for additional EV startups to accelerate market share loss.

Incorrect, Tesla needs to take major market share or the ICE companies will revert to prioritizing ICE vehicles where they make alot on parts and service. Tesla needs to keep growing. Long TSLA.

 

[gringotuanis]

I wish I knew But if I have to guess, whatever bad news had to come out has come out, I cant imagine anything worse until the most awaited Q3 deliveries and profitability. I think all the drama is over for now and TSLA can start its boring slow climb back up to the 300 level and then the ER will dictate how the price moves from there.

Oh young, naive padawan, I once thought this too at $300, $290, $280, $270....

 

[generalenthu]

"We are about to have the most amazing quarter in our history, building and delivering more than twice as many cars as we did last quarter"

Surely he's only talking about Model 3 here. If they produced twice as many cars as last quarter that would mean 107k cars produced in Q3. Can't be true can it?

I think he is talking only about deliveries (S+X+3). Building 107K cars is not on the cards. Delivering ~81K Cars is close to the top end of their guidance.

 

[neroden]

He said deliver not produce... Q2 deliveries were 40,740 vehicles, of which 18,440 were Model 3, 10,930 were Model S, and 11,370 were Model X

If they deliver 55,000 Model 3s and 27,000 S&Xs that's 82,000, more than double Q2.

That's $6+ billion of cars in one quarter... Revenues were $7 billion for all of 2016!

Oh, that adds up. But he said "building and delivering", so no.

 

[dailo]

I wonder why he didn't want to deal with Tesla Energy? Maybe there is a separate COO in the wings for Energy... or maybe Musk is bored with cars and wants to build self-sufficient houses instead...

I also hope that Jerome will be able to fill the missing staffing positions for Tesla Automotive. It's not 100% clear what they are and I suspect a lot of the needed positions are basically highly trained secretaries to handle internal communications. (Someone whose full time job is to keep track of automotive regulatory and procedural stuff for different jurisdictions and distribute information about them to the sales, service, and delivery people would, in fact, have a full time job, for example.) His Daimler experience may make him more open to making those hires?

I think just handling automotive is a huge task itself and where all his experience is really. I am guessing JB is the main guy handling Energy for now.

 

[TradingInvest]

To achieve what you suggest will take a battery pack and drive system that costs 1/2 or 1/3 what it costs today. That will be the only way to draw large numbers of buyers to make the switch. Even matching the cost of ICE will not be enough. Getting people to make a big change in their habits can be very tough. Humans are very much creatures of habit.

An extreme example I read about recently was a small diner in New England that made the switch from wavy-cut french fries to straight cut fries because the only blades they could buy were flimsy, kept breaking, were expensive, and the owners insisted on using fresh potatoes. Their loyal customers went berserk up to and including boycotts and death threats over this simple change according to the news reports. So good luck getting the masses to make the BEV switch in short order. A certain percentage of the population is always ready for something new, better, or different. The rest...not so much.

Tesla vehicles are not just slightly better, they are WAY better than ICE cars. More and more of my friends are switching to Tesla for real. I talk to them ask what they think. This is clearly an iPhone moment. The switch will pickup speed.

 

[FS_FRA]

What is your comment about that? Just curious.

I’m particularly happy about Jerome getting to where he is. He was instrumental in the success of Model S customer happiness at the start.
Also President = COO.....isn’t that what everyone has been screaming for? Maybe he can be what Shotwell is to SpaceX.....?

 

[loky]

But , please post the link of the source. Some members of the thread do not want to give free clicks.

But , please post the link of the source. Some members of the thread do not want to give free clicks.

Would be so kind to explain , what is your problem( s)?

 

[Xpert]

OK, there are some good decisions in here. In fact, there's a reorg hidden in here.

Jerome Guillen is now President: Automotive. He controls engineering, supply chain, production, distribution, sales, and service.

In other words, he's the COO for the automotive business. I guess he didn't want to handle Energy too. But there you go, Tesla has its COO.

Kevin Kassekert is VP: People and Places, in charge of HR, construction, and infrastructure. (It's confirmed that Toledano quit due to overwork. Work-life balance, Elon!) He seems well equipped for the construction and infrastructure job; he seems to be pinch-hitting at HR, unfortunately.

Chris Lister is running Gigafactory Operations, and apparently was critical to solving production problems there, so that's good.

Felicia Mayo, senior HR director and head of Diversity and Inclusion program, is now a VP, and reports to Kevin and Elon (ugh!). (Why not make her the actual HR director, I wonder?)
Cindy Nicola, VP of Global Recruiting, now reports to Kevin and Elon (ugh!) I hope these two talk to each other a lot.

Laurie Shelby remains Environmental, Health and Safety VP but reports directly to Musk not to Guillen.

Dave Arnold becomes director of communications -- dunno. Did communications for Virgin America (the airline) but has been working at Tesla for a year and 7 months, under the commnications director who left. I don't think this is going to help get Musk's communications under control, but on the other hand, having Branson as your eccentric major-shareholder / boss may have been rather similar...

Great move, Tesla. damage control reorg. With Jerome acting like a COO, this hopefully stops the sliding. I may get back in the stock next week.

 

[FS_FRA]

I wonder why he didn't want to deal with Tesla Energy? Maybe there is a separate COO in the wings for Energy... or maybe Musk is bored with cars and wants to build self-sufficient houses instead

I think Solar/Energy are very different from automotive. You need a different type of person there. Also - isn’t the idea to spread the load over as many capable shoulders as possible?

 

[ggr]

Sorry, may be I am wrong, but I have believed you are the moderator in here or you have been.

No, it was a joke post after I melted down. The current moderators are Audie and IntlProf (and technically I still have powers but not enough time to exercise them sensibly, and I make mistakes when I'm in a hurry).

PS: I did ban those two for 7 days. --ggr.

 

[UnknownSoldier]

OK, there are some good decisions in here. In fact, there's a reorg hidden in here.

Jerome Guillen is now President: Automotive. He controls engineering, supply chain, production, distribution, sales, and service.

In other words, he's the COO for the automotive business. I guess he didn't want to handle Energy too. But there you go, Tesla has its COO.

Kevin Kassekert is VP: People and Places, in charge of HR, construction, and infrastructure. (It's confirmed that Toledano quit due to overwork. Work-life balance, Elon!) He seems well equipped for the construction and infrastructure job; he seems to be pinch-hitting at HR, unfortunately.

Chris Lister is running Gigafactory Operations, and apparently was critical to solving production problems there, so that's good.

Felicia Mayo, senior HR director and head of Diversity and Inclusion program, is now a VP, and reports to Kevin and Elon (ugh!). (Why not make her the actual HR director, I wonder?)
Cindy Nicola, VP of Global Recruiting, now reports to Kevin and Elon (ugh!) I hope these two talk to each other a lot.

Laurie Shelby remains Environmental, Health and Safety VP but reports directly to Musk not to Guillen.

Dave Arnold becomes director of communications -- dunno. Did communications for Virgin America (the airline) but has been working at Tesla for a year and 7 months, under the commnications director who left. I don't think this is going to help get Musk's communications under control, but on the other hand, having Branson as your eccentric major-shareholder / boss may have been rather similar...

Well I mean this doesn't make sense, if someone is going to be the de-facto COO, then name him the COO. I don't get the beating around the bush here. Unless there's a formally named COO, there is no COO.

But let's see what happens now, especially with the hints that they are going well with production and deliveries.

 

[Tslynk67]

His mind is zig-zagging like a fractal, and for anyone paying attention and read his biography and all the countless other reports, this is nothing new. I'm convinced he's always been like this, only now he's very tired. He made some bad calls lately, for sure, but such is life for those who don't have the luxury of making all their mistakes in private. When the whole world is watching, all mediocrities get to look smart on TV freaking out about "bad judgment". All this brouhaha is just because of a big misunderstanding, really. People want him to act like a magnate. He's a magnet.

Yes, people, Elon Musk is weird. So what?

I don’t find him weird at all, but then again, people think I’m weird...

 

[FS_FRA]

How’s the after hours market looking?

 

[The Blue Owl]

I don’t find him weird at all, but then again, people think I’m weird...

Amen.

(I meant from the perspective of the buttoned down folks.)

 

[Sudre]

CNBC just reported that the U.S. Air Force is looking into Elon "smoking" pot. SpaceX is a major contractor, and I guess the gov frowns on contractors getting high (even though he didn't).

The hits just keep on coming.

We had a President that smoked pot "but didn't inhale".... I think everything will be fine.

 

[uselesslogin]

I’m particularly happy about Jerome getting to where he is.

Bring on the reckless growth!
(Ah the good old days. May they return.)

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

We had a President that smoked pot "but didn't inhale".... I think everything will be fine.

And now there’s a president who behaves like a toddler and controls the nukes. But Elon taking one puff of weed would not be acceptable to the USAF... Someone pinch me, I need to wake up.

The reorganisation is good news. Hopefully the stock will start climbing in the coming weeks. Bought 10 shares at 260 today, making an average of 295 for the total of 40 I have (had 30 at 307). If we go down I’ll buy some more. Still have room for another 10. I know, just a small investor. But I did invest in three Model S already ;-)

 

[ggr]

Please, post the source for the article, don't wont to donate free clicks.

Posting a whole article is against the terms of service of TMC, and also illegal. In this case I think the title is sufficient explanation, but maybe a juicy stupid quote or two would be helpful.