I would try to give a modest contribution to real Q3 production numbers of M3 using official Tesla and EM statements.
Tesla stated on 2nd August that cell annual production at GF1 reached 20 MW. Based on 75KW battery pack, it would be about 5130 M3/week. Reduce it by 5% for ongoing battery storage projects and another 5% for fast ramping, possible cells production in august is enough for cca 4600 M3/week, during July for about 4000/week production rate and when multiplied with 11-12 weeks (reduced for holidays, maintenance, upgrading production lines and time for EM to tweet
) we get about 50-55k for Q3, as stated during call.
With additional three cell lines starting production from late September (possible modest impact on Q3 production) to the end of the year (additional 30% at least, I believe that new cell lines are significantly better) , production of M3 during Q4 could be about 70-75k at least, considering cell production.
Also, Tesla already has introduced better paint technology and body production reached for the first time rate of 800/day during Q3 call.
The number of cars in transit for deliveries in US and Canada could be at least Tesla cars production for two weeks, one example:
I believe that Tesla is trying now to make the best compromise between production rate, quality and M3 gross margin.
Personally, I will look at gross margin of M3 at the end of Q3. Any percentages above 10% should be multiplied by at least 5
and added to share price.
I would like to see some good comments on Market Action today, so
grr please, move this post to corresponding thread.