TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[Fact Checking]

during WWII it was "your family will be enslaved by the Nazis if you lose"

Nazi plans were to eradicate most of the Russian population as a lesser race, but I digress ...

The Red Army also used "Barrier Troops" who shot retreating troops:

Barrier troops - Wikipedia

 

[scaesare]

I agree with you. My spreadsheet shows Q3 revenue will be around $6B. Last year the whole year was only $10B. Next year revenue will be around $25B. While spending will also go up, it will be nowhere near the revenue rate. My estimate for 2021 revenue will be about $50B, 20% gross margin. I am switching more asset into TSLA now. For most people, don't leverage, just add shares with cash at great buy point like now. Then save more cash, buy more shares. Shorts and traders can't do much about it.

If Q3 is going to be ~$6B (i.e. ~$24B/yr) as they are in the neighborhood of manufacturing 5K/wk at the end of the quarter, then I'd expect 2019 revenue to be significantly more than only $25B, as they would be likely starting at something greater than 6-7K/wk and ramping towards 10K throughout the yr.

 

[davecolene0606]

Yeah, except all of them were gone within 3 hours LOL

It's totally different, all these people have paid a reservation, or ordered the car. It's just a quick way to get them out to the customers.

Sounds like it was a bit chaotic, but as a first effort, very successful.

Gotta remember Don IS a car salesman.

 

[Zhelko Dimic]

Donn is currently trying to muddy up the model 3 delivery threads btw

You are embarrassing yourself.
If you actually read what @beachbum77 posted, you would see that he was both positive and informative.
And about five days ago, he actually described that this kind of solution (mass delivery, match of cars with customers) would help Tesla improve delivery bottlenecks. He referenced that being done in Toronto and Vancouver. This was before Tesla sent an email Friday evening and had it going at Kato Rd. this weekend*.

*Seeing all the confusion, how email wasn't clear, there were few different waiting lines and purpose of the line wasn't marked, process was shaky on Saturday and better on Sunday, presence of many volunteers from other Tesla's departments, it seems like they started organizing it on Thursday or so...
Wow, it's almost like Jerome listened to beachbum, probably because it was a bad idea!?

 

[Zaxxon]

For anyone who was wondering, someone in the Fremont delivery event thread mentioned that they asked a Tesla rep at the event where these immediate-availability vehicles came from. The answer was that they are vehicles that missed or couldn't fit into transport pipeline heading East.

Makes sense to me that with Tesla shooting for profitability this quarter and presumably being on the edge of making it or not, they'd make a rush to get these vehicles sold to folks who can take them this quarter.

 

[geneclean55]

You are embarrassing yourself.
If you actually read what @beachbum77 posted, you would see that he was both positive and informative.
And about five days ago, he actually described that this kind of solution (mass delivery, match of cars with customers) would help Tesla improve delivery bottlenecks. He referenced that being done in Toronto and Vancouver. This was before Tesla sent an email Friday evening and had it going at Kato Rd. this weekend*.

*Seeing all the confusion, how email wasn't clear, there were few different waiting lines and purpose of the line wasn't marked, process was shaky on Saturday and better on Sunday, presence of many volunteers from other Tesla's departments, it seems like they started organizing it on Thursday or so...
Wow, it's almost like Jerome listened to beachbum, probably because it was a bad idea!?

Tell me more about how people migrate across Europe just due to war and famine

 

[Zhelko Dimic]

Tell me more about how people migrate across Europe just due to war and famine

O, wow, miss-quoting!
Favorite weapon of FUD-sters

I'm however now embarrassed of stooping so low to answer to your provocation.
To self: Great job Z. Continue arguing with Internet trolls, because that's always useful...

 

[TradingInvest]

If Q3 is going to be ~$6B (i.e. ~$24B/yr) as they are in the neighborhood of manufacturing 5K/wk at the end of the quarter, then I'd expect 2019 revenue to be significantly more than only $25B, as they would be likely starting at something greater than 6-7K/wk and ramping towards 10K throughout the yr.

My calculation shows 2019 revenue will be between $24B to $30B. I like to use low end for my calculations, then gradually update it as the year progress.

 

[winfield100]

Since this is theoretically _market_ _action thread
at 9:40 am this rule was invoked for Tesla
"Specifically, the Rule requires that a trading center establish, maintain, and enforce written policies and procedures reasonably designed to prevent the execution or display of a short sale order of a covered security at a price that is less than or equal to the current national best bid if the price of that covered security decreases by 10% or more from the covered security’s closing price as determined by the listing market for the covered security as of the end of regular trading hours on the prior day. In addition, the Rule requires that the trading center establish, maintain, and enforce written policies and procedures reasonably designed to impose this short sale price test restriction for the remainder of the day and the following day when a national best bid for the covered security is calculated and disseminated on a current and continuing basis by a plan processor pursuant to an effective national market system plan.........."
https://www.nasdaqtrader.com/trader.aspx?id=shortsalecircuitbreaker

(zip down to 9:40am on above link if interested)

ie, Friday -->AND Monday 9/10/2018, so shorts may be a bit shackled Monday

In Case anybody missed it, amid the froth and such, _Friday_ was an -->accumulation<-- day.
The SP went down, but overall, folks bought at higher prices than sold at lower.
a lot of somebodies got more shares at cheaper prices
(tuesday, eh, , who knows)(monday should be

 

[Krugerrand]

I was referring to the Chief Accounting Officer Dave Morton, who might have decided that his sleeping-in-the-office days were over. While the *factory* workers are getting more of a life now, the execs? From what I can tell, not so much.

The execs are getting millions in options. A good percentage of people would grab that deal. It’s just camping, only with a roof, working toilets, temperature control, free cereal, coffee and juice. Do that for a year or two and you’re set.

If Mr Morton wasn’t aware of occasionally sleeping at the factory to get the job done then he was too stupid to work there. It’s not a secret that that happens sometimes at Fremont or on the roof of Gigafactory.

I don’t think he’s that out of touch with Tesla reality so that’s why I called his public statement bs and that more likely he was hired to take Tesla private and handle private investor fund etc... and when that didn’t happen he went and got another job at Anaplan.

 

[Krugerrand]

Look, Tesla made the right call in Q2 by trying to build up a supply of RWD units while holding back deliveries to not bust the 200K number before July 1. I think everyone expected that. What seems to have caught them (and everyone else) off guard was how many opted to switch to the AWD and P variants when they became available. Since then they are just not getting enough new orders for RWD to clear out that inventory. So they are doing the smart thing: Admit you have an inventory and clear it out fast.

Hopefully, they will do the same for S & X. It has already started with new inventory being posted to the website. For months they had no new cars listed for either model, when you could call a showroom and get called back within an hour with a selection of available cars.

You are completely out of touch with what Tesla is doing.

 

[Krugerrand]

Once Tesla publishes it then it needs to be more accurate than an internal email. As far as I know, lying to employees around production volumes doesn't break any laws while lying to investors does.

No it doesn’t, not when it’s specified right at the top that it’s an *email to employees*. If that’s not good enough for some people, then don’t read it.

And where did *lying to employees* come from? Is there some sort of history of Elon lying to employees that I’ve missed?

 

[Krugerrand]

Here is the timeline since Jerome came in:

1) Sometime Thursday Jerome was promoted to President - Automotive. I am sure a mandate to move inventory came with it. As an insider we know he knows where the problems are and what needs the most attention first.
2) Less than 24 hours later an email goes out announcing an inventory sale in Fremont beginning 9AM the next morning. Whether the email was intentionally vague is unknown but it was out in a hurry while at the same time they needed to set up people, cars, and the facility for a sale the next morning.
3) Cars got sold on Sat and today. Probably not 400 but more than otherwise would be down the road today. Tesla buyers are a forgiving bunch once they drive away and the smiles replace the frowns.
4) Will they do better each day? I think you can count on that.
5) While some went away this weekend unhappy the consensus was the staff did a great job and tried their best to be helpful even searching inventory at other locations.
6) A subsequent email on RWD units being available is also out today.

The new president is throwing back the curtain and getting down to the business of selling cars by admitting there are cars available for immediate sale he wants gone by 9/30. This is the kind of transparency Tesla has desperately needed.

That is a pretty amazing start. I think it is too bad Jerome was not in place months ago, but I guess the timing and BoD mindset was not right then.

There is ZERO indication Jerome had anything to do with any of that. It could just as easily have been planned all along by someone else.

Stop talking like you think you know what’s going on. You don’t know anymore than the rest of us. Indeed, many here have been following Tesla a lot longer and a lot more closely than you.

 

[MarcusMaximus]

You are completely out of touch with what Tesla is doing.

From where I’m sitting, Tesla is doing exactly what he described. They didn’t just run this event for fun, and it wasn’t just happenstance that it’s specifically RWD models. Note that this is *bullish*. They underestimated (higher margin) AWD demand and overestimated (lower margin) RWD demand.

That’s great going forward. Once they clear out this glut of RWD models, they can increase the percentage of AWD production and rake in even higher profits than they thought.

 

[RobStark]

If the spread between SR and LR is just 220 vs ~280-290, I’m not seeing a point in the SR. That’s something like 18kWh. And, as mentioned earlier by someone else: there’s not much point in a sub-200 mile Y. I’ll reiterate: I wouldn’t at all be surprised to see LR being the only option on the Y. That or the equivalent to the LR 3 being the SR Y.

I would be surprised if they put the same exact LR battery in the Model Y as they do in the 2018 LR Model 3.

I'll reiterate. You wan't the lowest possible price for a base Model Y and definitely under $50k.

 

[Krugerrand]

From where I’m sitting, Tesla is doing exactly what he described. They didn’t just run this event for fun, and it wasn’t just happenstance that it’s specifically RWD models. Note that this is *bullish*. They underestimated (higher margin) AWD demand and overestimated (lower margin) RWD demand.

That’s great going forward. Once they clear out this glut of RWD models, they can increase the percentage of AWD production and rake in even higher profits than they thought.

Read a little further and you’ll come across the post where an employee said the cars simply missed their shipment window east for one reason or another.

 

[RABaby]

From where I’m sitting, Tesla is doing exactly what he described. They didn’t just run this event for fun, and it wasn’t just happenstance that it’s specifically RWD models. Note that this is *bullish*. They underestimated (higher margin) AWD demand and overestimated (lower margin) RWD demand.

That’s great going forward. Once they clear out this glut of RWD models, they can increase the percentage of AWD production and rake in even higher profits than they thought.

Or maybe start offering the SR battery. Sure they want to maximize profits for Q3, but at the CC if they can also report that they are going to add the SR as an option that day, it would come close to closing the door on critics. Then again, only close to closing the door. The shorts and naysayers will keep their foot in the door and prevent it from slamming shut. I think the SR available in Q4 would inflict serious pain in the feet of shorts.

Eliminating inventory of rear wheel LR while adding options is a good thing. If people have to wait to get their cars, it adds a little value to the brand and decreases short ammunition.

 

[Intl Professor]

Are you saying regen requires heavier duty axles?

Not my intention. Four wheel independent power might if a mechanical linkage had to be added. I guess I was unclear. I understand mounting on each wheel a motor is one solution but that screws up the springing somehow. I vaguely remember Rimac may have done that. Don't know.

Edit: I think I got what's the problem with motors in wheels. For parts of the car that go up and down, best to keep the mass as low as possible. Also. for stability of passenger compartment, keep as much weight there as possible connected to a rigid frame. Probably obvious to you technically smart guys, unless I got this wrong!

 

[Intl Professor]

Read a little further and you’ll come across the post where an employee said the cars simply missed their shipment window east for one reason or another.

Wow!

 

[defc0n]

Looks like the shorts are more sure of themselves than ever that Tesla is going bankwupt soon. Even if TSLA posts a cash flow positive Q3 they won’t be going anywhere.