TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[ggr]

NOW you're talkin'!

Dan

There's a howling logical error in all you guys' thinking. Which is that it's better for the stock to go up from where it is, than to go down and then go back up.

I haven't caught up yet today, but the price chart this morning shows @Papafox's "icicles" very clearly, despite trending upward overall. Bounced off $290 twice, it often breaks through on the third try as the shorts run out of their dry powder.

 

[Krugerrand]

Why the pop?

Why not?

 

[bdy0627]

I’ll resell sept 290$ calls against full position if we can get above 11$. Currently 10.5$

I think we are likely to get up in the $320 range over the next 15 trading days, but there certainly will be volatility along the way.

 

[avoigt]

Yes, given the predicament with an important and prestigious industry literally poisoning the tax-paying electorate, it is quite possible that a new EV incentive will be introduced.
Since the legislators try very hard to exclude Tesla, I can imagine a policy that not only reserves a given amount of money for incentives (which the taxpayers will appreciate), but one that also limits the number of eligible cars per manufacturer. I basically imagine that the legislators will instruct each German auto maker to estimate how many EVs they will sell in Germany within some number of years, given a stipulated incentive (and no talk about fines to emissions cheaters). Some weighted average of this estimate will then become the cap for each EV maker - maybe counting all EV-sales so far in Germany, if that helps to minimize the number of eligible Teslas. I guess only historical EVs sales with at least 5 seats would be counted against the quota (of eligible cars with any number of seats), for the benefit of BMW. Yes, legislating is difficult.

Back in 2014 I managed to get a Tesla brochure from the Munich store, it hangs at my office door, so I already have a long list of people that I had to promise a test drive once my Model 3 arrives.

PS. Should "will have no chance to extend" be read as "will have no chance but to extend", or no?

Correct

 

[Opus BC fan]

This has to be because I put in a buy order for 11 shares at 268 last night.

 

[avoigt]

There are other German EV incentives, yes. E.g. the added income tax on company cars goes from 1.0% of list price per month to 0.5% for EV’s. For reasons of German unemployment rates, hybrids are considered EV’s as well.

As things look like now, there will be an EU import duty of 10% on Tesla Model 3. So far these duties were bypassed by assembling S and X in Tilburg, The Netherlands. This will not be the case for Model 3.

Just returning the 10% EU import duty would be an equally good incentive as the German one, when replacing it EU-wide.

How do you know? Is there any statement I missed that Tesla will for the 3 not run the same process they do with the S and X and guide them through Tilburg.

If so please send a link otherwise I assume Tesla will continue to bypass that tax.

 

[sdtslafan]

Maybe this rise is because Elon musk hasn’t done something stupid in over 5 days

 

[SteveG3]

Today's FUD on CNBC

View attachment 334199

Is CNBC really referring to Seeking Alpha as a partner? SA is a blog site... it explicitly has a policy of not fact checking their “contributors.”

 

[Priigoat]

Again: I heard that there is a presentation held today at Morgan STanley Conference Center with Tesla, whatever that means, cannot find the article.

 

[tivoboy]

I think we are likely to get up in the $320 range over the next 15 trading days, but there certainly will be volatility along the way.

I think we have to spend some more time down here. 290$ seems to be a new level of resistance. We’d have to get some real news to clear it and close significantly above 300$ to make a new run to 320$ which is the NEXT level of resistance.

Nobody wants to hear it but I think we’ll retest 269 before 32x

 

[anon]

When did June 2020 options become available? I only just noticed.

 

[Hogfighter]

MMD

 

[MartinAustin]

Why the pop?

Because the shorts use a combustion engine to sell their stocks, and it take a little while to warm up.

Now it's running... $289 down to $282.

Alternatively, perhaps investors are selling TSLA and buying NIO ?

 

[Mich]

MMD

Nasdaq is down 1%, tesla up 2%.

 

[Dan Detweiler]

Maybe this rise is because Elon musk hasn’t done something stupid in over 5 days

...or maybe it's because more people are figuring out that what the media screams and wails is irresponsible behavior is actually completely irrelevant and the company is on the verge of demonstrating itself being a resounding success.

Dan

 

[bdy0627]

I think we have to spend some more time down here. 290$ seems to be a new level of resistance. We’d have to get some real news to clear it and close significantly above 300$ to make a new run to 320$ which is the NEXT level of resistance.

Nobody wants to hear it but I think we’ll retest 269 before 32x

I agree with $290 resistance, also $300 resistance. Also very possible to have a temporary dip of about 5%. Neither changes my opinion about the likelihood of $320s within 15 trading days.

 

[beachbum77]

Is CNBC really referring to Seeking Alpha as a partner? SA is a blog site... it explicitly has a policy of not fact checking their “contributors.”

Where have you been? You have to get through the fact-checkers before the editors will even look at your submitted articles. Been that way for a long time.

 

[bdy0627]

Big down day for Nasdaq is having an effect, but this pattern sure looks familiar. Shorty shorts, doing their thang again today. IMO, momentum-wise, it's pretty important for them to do what they can to negate a solid climb today. Frankly, I'm surprised they have had such a tough time negating the climb given the huge help they have gotten from the Nasdaq.

 

[JRP3]

Where have you been? You have to get through the fact-checkers before the editors will even look at your submitted articles. Been that way for a long time.

Fact-checkers must have blinders on over there considering the garbage which gets published.

 

[beachbum77]

@beachbum77 Donn
Potemkins, all the way down, is Seeking Alpha, 99% click bait
Still waiting on Anton W's article "Hello Kitty, San Rio (6v) driveway kiddie car, Tesla killer or whatever, you decide"

Don't confuse articles with blog posts. There is no editorial review of blog posts. But you will get pulled from blogging if you cannot back up what you write. Writers also do not get paid for blog posts.