TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[shortburn]

I honestly don't want to be responding to a person I ignored, but seekingalpha is garbage. I don't even care if it is a Tesla bull writing the article. Its like the case with the guy who tossed an old hard drive that had a hundred million $s worth of bitcoin. Only crazys would search that landfill. Additionally, even a broken clock is right twice a day. Even if an author "gets it right" once, they aren't consistent. So, I don't even click on any SA articles when I see it in the link; it is a waste of my and everyone else's time. Many authors have no idea what they are saying and are often wrong - I won't even back up this claim because then I would be giving them clicks, so take it as a opinion or whatever - even while pretending to be knowledgeable on the subject matter.

Sorry for the rant but SA is just trash. It had to be said. Sorry to any good authors out there who work hard on their blogs if they even exist (call me a skeptic... but not from Montana).

 

[beachbum77]

It’s been their explicit policy.

When I found out about it several years ago as an SA contributor, I called IR at Tesla and discussed it with them. Spoke directly to VP of IR at the time. He told me Tesla and their attorneys were well aware of this. He heavily hinted to me that it was their impression that SA did this as a dodge of legal responsibility.

For years I’ve basically viewed SA as a pre-meditated safe haven for misinformation. Coming out of finance, it’s not surprising it’s founders knew there was a massive market opportunity for creating such a safe haven.

see,

Of course, I don’t know that’s why they created SA, but strongly suspect.

strongly suspect same of Business Insider, cofounded and led by Henry Blodget, who,

“Due to his violations of securities laws and subsequent civil trial conviction, Blodget is permanently banned from involvement in the securities industry.[2] Blodget is the CEO of Business Insider.”

Henry Blodget - Wikipedia

and strongly suspect same of street.com, founded by same Jim Cramer as seen in that video pounding the table on the importance of getting your false narratives to be aired through the media. hey, why not just found a media outlet to do this through?

Hmmm. Two bullish writers who post on here too would be interested in that information. They have both had to recently retract articles for related reasons. My honest opinion is the editors of SA are strong Tesla supporters. That is why their articles got published to begin with. Then the fact-based readers set upon them until the articles got retracted. I have had valid articles (my opinion) go through endless re-writes until I just gave up and waited for another subject on a different set of numbers.

So if you think there is a bias against Tesla at SA boy are you mistaken.

 

[Tslynk67]

Gene understands better than Wall Street

'Tesla Fighter' Nio Gets Poor Reception on IPO

 

[PaulusdB]

How do you know? Is there any statement I missed that Tesla will for the 3 not run the same process they do with the S and X and guide them through Tilburg.

If so please send a link otherwise I assume Tesla will continue to bypass that tax.

You’re free to assume the tax will be bypassed. It isn’t 100% impossible, but something wil have to get moving soon for this to happen.
As things are now, Tilburg assembly hall’s capacity is 90 (S & X combined) cars per day. Sure, this can be massively extended, or maybe a third party (like Magma) can be contracted. But this isn’t very likely.

Maybe US <-> EU trade negotiations will see a change in the right direction, sooner than those scenario's.

 

[winfield100]

looking good today, A/D is positive

 

[winfield100]

 

[Chickenlittle]

Quit feeding the troll. This is ridiculous.

I could not agree more. Ignore the trolls including beach bum. There is no more sure fire way to get them to leave than just not responding. The posts will become more convoluted and outrageous hoping to elicit a response. By responding you are essentially reposting their claims and carrying on a conversation with him. He will go away when we stop responding. It can be hard to not respond to nonsense but his persona will die quicker rather than responding

 

[RoadsterPlease]

glad to be back in this stock and browsing this forum! Today's market action was pure joy imo. Have a great rest of the day everyone, I think we are out of the deep water for good.

 

[BornToFly]

Why the pop?

Because 007 said so yesterday....

 

[Dan Detweiler]

Well gang, this is the end for me. I have been forced to liquidate all my Tesla stock...but for a good reason. I am taking delivery of my AWD Model 3 on the 24th!

My intention when buying into the stock was to give my down payment the opportunity to grow instead of idling away in a savings account. I sold the rest of my shares this morning and it is going to allow me to do all the things I wanted it to do. I wish you all the very best in your investments (and I use that word VERY specifically). I will be watching from the sideline as Tesla goes on to bigger and better things.

I can't wait to get my car and become a supporter of the company through being an ambassador with test drives and long conversations about how wonderful it is. I wish I could continue to support it through stock ownership but that just isn't in the cards. It's been fun...most of the time. LOL!

Dan

 

[Toolsmack]

View attachment 334295

That short interest vs price chart has me questioning the short impact on share price lately. The coordinated lowering of short interest along with the stock price the past few weeks and the rise in price along with rise in price yesterday tells me there are currently bigger influencers than shorts moving this.

 

[TrendTrader007]

$TSLA just broke out of a month long down trending channel on big volume today
i expect fast and furious rally taking us back to or Exceeding AUG 7th highs over the next several days to weeks

 

[bdy0627]

I'm loving the price action today. What about that gap well below us now from the 9/7 and 9/10 trading days, between $268 and $271? It's a small gap, but those usually get filled at some point, right???

 

[beachbum77]

I just got the below...looks like they are offering refunds if you dont like your vehicle:

View attachment 334287

Anyone see this on refunds and coming $100 referral credit for Supercharger ?

 

[defc0n]

I'm loving the price action today. What about that gap well below us now from the 9/7 and 9/10 trading days, between $268 and $271? It's a small gap, but those usually get filled at some point, right???

Debated selling and jumping in at a lower price point, but not worth the risk. Also a small chance that Apple reveals a car today...

 

[beachbum77]

I could not agree more. Ignore the trolls including beach bum. There is no more sure fire way to get them to leave than just not responding. The posts will become more convoluted and outrageous hoping to elicit a response. By responding you are essentially reposting their claims and carrying on a conversation with him. He will go away when we stop responding. It can be hard to not respond to nonsense but his persona will die quicker rather than responding

Sorry Chicken. But I have been here for over a year while many actual trolls have come and gone. You seem to miss there is a difference between a bear and a knuckle-headed troll.

 

[jkirkwood001]

Everything you just said there is untrue - ordinarily bond traders don't give a crap about stock price, in this case they care a little more (but not a whole lot) because of the potential of debt conversion to equity.

However the bonds are tanking because it's becoming apparent to almost everyone (aside from some delusional outliers) that Tesla are really going to struggle to fund the debt, R&D for the Y, the Truck and continue to ramp up production for lower margin cars, all at the same time. The math doesn't add up even with the most optimistic forecasts. Everyone knows Q3 and Q4 will look rosey because of the higher ASP models being focused on right now. The rubber hits the road in 2019 when higher proportion of lower priced cars are being sold at the same time as debt obligations coming due, a needed boost in R&D, a focus on the semi and additional competition in the market, along with (what is apparently waning demand) because original reservationists were counting on the Fed Tax refund and won't get all of it.

This isn't FUD (in fact it's absolutely certain and there is very little doubt), it has nothing to do with short sellers, it has nothing to so with Musk's antics, it's simply a reality bond traders especially are considering and (it would seem) hedging somewhat heavily.



While this would reduce long term commitments, it might not make sense because new debt would be surely issued at a higher rate, and I don't think Tesla can manage this with the above factors I mentioned. All that cash flow needs to go into R&D, global factories and ramping up semi production.

Last word: I'm not joining the chorus of FUD - I'm a fan of Tesla, I have my $75k Performance almost in my hands, but dismissing this as 'typical' and 'cyclical' and they could 'just buy their bonds back' is nonsense.

I agree with much of what you say, but I think you're overestimating the importance of the North American market, especially focusing on the federal rebate. 3/4 of Tesla's world market still can't buy a 3. There's a good 2 years of full-on production with the current wait list, and more, as we safely assume, based on past data, that word-of-mouth will grow the 3 market even more than the half million who reserved.

I do agree the capital raise is significant for all they want to do, but on the income side, things are rosy for at least the medium term, and arguably at least as rosy long-term as production efficiencies improve and battery costs come down.

 

[Tslynk67]

Latest rally based on possible new China trade talks. 15% tariff always better than 40% tariff on cars shipped to China.

possible, sure. More likely Administration smoke screen to spread out risk prior to November 6, 2018

No worries, Q3 earning call should knock $TSLA out of the park regardless...

 

[Alphacrux]

Rapide-E. ‘Limited slip differential”- is that a *mechanical linkage* between the front and rear motors? And limited production- only 155 units?

Sorry to post here- can someone point me to the right forum?

 

[MP3Mike]

Rapide-E. ‘Limited slip differential”- is that a *mechanical linkage* between the front and rear motors? And limited production- only 155 units?

Front and rear motors? I thought it was only rear wheel drive with one motor per wheel, but that doesn't seem to be exactly what there picture shows. The article says "“two rear-mounted electric motors producing a combined target output of just over 610PS and a colossal 950Nm of torque.”" and shows this:

I don't see anything showing the front wheels being driven...