TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[tivoboy]

Gene understands better than Wall Street

'Tesla Fighter' Nio Gets Poor Reception on IPO

I took a bite this morning at 5.75$.. it then proceeded to drop to 5.5$.. at this point its basically just option pricing.

 

[beachbum77]

I took a bit this morning at 5.75$.. it then proceeded to drop to 5.5$.. at this point its basically just option pricing.

Should have bought it. $6.64 now.

 

[tivoboy]

Should have bought it. $6.64 now.

I did.. at 5.75$

 

[Alphacrux]

Front and rear motors? I thought it was only rear wheel drive with one motor per wheel, but that doesn't seem to be exactly what there picture shows. The article says "“two rear-mounted electric motors producing a combined target output of just over 610PS and a colossal 950Nm of torque.”" and shows this:

I don't see anything showing the front wheels being driven...

“The rear-wheel drive Rapide E’s twin electric motors will drive through a Limited-Slip Differential, which combined with revised spring and damper rates ensures the pure handling characteristics for which the petrol-powered Rapide S is already renowned.”

So it looks like a rear wheel drive with front and rear motors connected by a mechanical linkage. Positively Stone Age.

 

[beachbum77]

I did.. at 5.75$

Smart. We bought in at $6.00. Agree, at this price why not take a small position since it is priced like an option? There is room for many EV players. Time will shake out the winners here and around the world. 51 million shares already traded.

 

[TrendTrader007]

I'm loving the price action today. What about that gap well below us now from the 9/7 and 9/10 trading days, between $268 and $271? It's a small gap, but those usually get filled at some point, right???

it is an island reversal aka morning star candlestick pattern
unless there is a resumption of downtrend these gap ups typically do not get filled and are strong bottom reversal signals

 

[Alphacrux]

“The rear-wheel drive Rapide E’s twin electric motors will drive through a Limited-Slip Differential, which combined with revised spring and damper rates ensures the pure handling characteristics for which the petrol-powered Rapide S is already renowned.”

So it looks like a rear wheel drive with front and rear motors connected by a mechanical linkage. Positively Stone Age.

Unless the front is a battery pack instead of a motor.

 

[tivoboy]

Smart. We bought in at $6.00. Agree, at this price why not take a small position since it is priced like an option? There is room for many EV players. Time will shake out the winners here and around the world. 51 million shares already traded.

If we see new tariffs discussed for imports to mainland China, this stock will fly and Tesla, well, not so much. At 6B mkt cap, for a current concern I think it could easily double in the next 6 months. I'll take that bet at 5.75$.

 

[Hogfighter]

Arguing with an idiot is two idiots arguing.

 

[pz1975]

Well gang, this is the end for me. I have been forced to liquidate all my Tesla stock...but for a good reason. I am taking delivery of my AWD Model 3 on the 24th!

My intention when buying into the stock was to give my down payment the opportunity to grow instead of idling away in a savings account. I sold the rest of my shares this morning and it is going to allow me to do all the things I wanted it to do. I wish you all the very best in your investments (and I use that word VERY specifically). I will be watching from the sideline as Tesla goes on to bigger and better things.

I can't wait to get my car and become a supporter of the company through being an ambassador with test drives and long conversations about how wonderful it is. I wish I could continue to support it through stock ownership but that just isn't in the cards. It's been fun...most of the time. LOL!

Dan

You'll be back. FOMO is strong.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Only reason I go to SA anymore is 'cause they have nice single page view transcripts of ER conference calls.

Tesla (TSLA) Q2 2018 Earnings Conference Call Transcript -- The Motley Fool

 

[TrendTrader007]

we are basically bouncing off hard the lower bollinger on MONTHLY chart
last 2 times it happened $TSLA bounced approx 49% and 61% off the lower bollinger, conservatively
i suspect rally upto $373 to $403 CONSERVATIVELY by November 2018
anything better is also good

 

[beachbum77]

Well gang, this is the end for me. I have been forced to liquidate all my Tesla stock...but for a good reason. I am taking delivery of my AWD Model 3 on the 24th!

My intention when buying into the stock was to give my down payment the opportunity to grow instead of idling away in a savings account. I sold the rest of my shares this morning and it is going to allow me to do all the things I wanted it to do. I wish you all the very best in your investments (and I use that word VERY specifically). I will be watching from the sideline as Tesla goes on to bigger and better things.

I can't wait to get my car and become a supporter of the company through being an ambassador with test drives and long conversations about how wonderful it is. I wish I could continue to support it through stock ownership but that just isn't in the cards. It's been fun...most of the time. LOL!

Dan

Enjoy your new car! You are not getting rid of the TR-6 are you?

 

[theschnell]

If we see new tariffs discussed for imports to mainland China, this stock will fly and Tesla, well, not so much. At 6B mkt cap, for a current concern I think it could easily double in the next 6 months. I'll take that bet at 5.75$.

Let me get this straight. You're short TSLA with a price/sales ratio of 5 based on 2017 revenue, and a P/S ratio of less than 3 by the end of 2018 at current valuation, for a company with a 500 million loss and a P/S ratio of 857 and a loss of 71X revenue.

I realize its a small bet and it may play out ok for you, but that's some major speculation compared to just buying TSLA...

 

[capster]

Well gang, this is the end for me. I have been forced to liquidate all my Tesla stock...but for a good reason. I am taking delivery of my AWD Model 3 on the 24th!

My intention when buying into the stock was to give my down payment the opportunity to grow instead of idling away in a savings account. I sold the rest of my shares this morning and it is going to allow me to do all the things I wanted it to do. I wish you all the very best in your investments (and I use that word VERY specifically). I will be watching from the sideline as Tesla goes on to bigger and better things.

I can't wait to get my car and become a supporter of the company through being an ambassador with test drives and long conversations about how wonderful it is. I wish I could continue to support it through stock ownership but that just isn't in the cards. It's been fun...most of the time. LOL!

Dan

Congrats Dan!

You and the AWD Model 3 are why the shorts will have trouble convincing people when they try to move the goal posts using “demand FUD” once their cash flow scarecrow is taken down.

Anyone who drives the AWD Model 3 will realize it handles better than any German sedan, certainly at anywhere near the price (I’ve some experience with German cars).

If my AWD Model 3 is any indication, Tesla both has the car and they’ve mastered the manufacturing.

Given the enthusiasm of owners and the response of prospective owners — I just gave my first non-family demo drive this morning — demand will not be a problem for Tesla.

 

[beachbum77]

Let me get this straight. You're short TSLA with a price/sales ratio of 5 based on 2017 revenue, and a P/S ratio of less than 3 by the end of 2018 at current valuation, for a company with a 500 million loss and a P/S ratio of 857 and a loss of 71X revenue.

I realize its a small bet and it may play out ok for you, but that's some major speculation compared to just buying TSLA...

People said the same thing about Tesla versus Ford and GM in 2008...

 

[Zhelko Dimic]

seems like market doesn’t care what Romit Shah of instanet thinks. I’m surprised by this bump...what’s the reason...beginning of institutions piling on before q3 delivery report?

I think his excuses for bailing on the stock were lame fwiw.

So it looks like Ben Kallo will be The big winner when this is all done. Only guy who stuck with Tesla

Someone is accumulating. Check that Chaikin oscillator, going over zero is sign of accumulation.
Signal started flashing on Sep 7, day of the biggest drop, as oscillator turned up

 

[scaesare]

Well, I think it makes sense to carefully parse what Elon and JB said about this in the 2017/Q4 conference call:

Analyst: "Yes. Thank you. It sounds like from the letter that you could do more than 100,000 S and X in 2018, but you're constrained by the 18650s. And I'm just curious what would it take to see the 2170 cells in these vehicles?"

Elon: "Yeah."

Jeffrey B. Straubel: "Well, this is JB. It's something we've of course contemplated, but it's quite a large change to the architecture of the module and the battery pack overall. And while the 18650 supply is somewhat of a cap at about 100,000 units per year, even just a few months ago we didn't feel that expanding and making some long-term bets on expanding that supply with Panasonic in Japan was really the right risk. It's something we could consider, but right now we're pretty happy with that balance and it matches our other production capabilities and our other investments."​

I believe JB would have mentioned it if the changes went beyond the battery pack. Changing the battery pack is of course still a major change, but it's still a lot better than significant changes to the chassis - which would basically require a re-design and re-qualification of the whole car and would require major tooling changes as well in Fremont, because chassis and interior dimensions would change as well.

Given that 2170 has lower mass per kWh, I believe their plan is to fit it into the form factor of the existing battery pack with very few changes required on the chassis and elsewhere (beyond battery pack integration and maybe the cooling compressor: increasing the cooling compressor's capacity would make sense anyway).

Plus Occam's Razor: I'm pretty sure they already knew that 2170 would fit when they picked 21700 as their form factor back in 2016. I mean, killing the 'easy' expansion path for the Model S/X would have been an unforced error of epic proportions...

One of the S pack teardowns (by wk057) noted there's ~1/4" (~6.5mm) deadspace in the bottom of the existing pack casing. The new 2170 cells are 5mm taller than the old. So ostensibly the new cells could be used in the existing pack casing with minimal internal rework.

 

[mongo]

One of the S pack teardowns (by wk057) noted there's ~1/4" (~6.5mm) deadspace in the bottom of the existing pack casing. The new 2170 cells are 5mm taller than the old. So ostensibly the new cells could be used in the existing pack casing with minimal internal rework.

Especially since the 2170s on the 3 only have bus bars on the top, vs top and bottom.

still up ~$8 today

 

[Krugerrand]

Maybe this rise is because Elon musk hasn’t done something stupid in over 5 days

So the SP fall yesterday was because....