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TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

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Yes, let's see ...



That's good news. Those 27 Models by 2022 don't even include the first 2 Audis and the Taycan. Assuming only 40k-50k per model per year that should get them to a million cars per year, which seems to be a decent start. The bad news is, that they are aiming for only 150k EVs in the Zwickau plant by 2020, apparently ~100k of those will be VW IDs ... i had hoped for more and a faster start. So while potential competition for Tesla is not quite there yet, especially when it comes to volume, it's definitely emerging over the next 2-5 years.

A majority of those BEVs are earmarked for China?
 
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Excuse me, but if we modestly assume 50 kWh battery per car, then that would require 50 GWh of batteries annually.

This is more than double the current annual, global automotive battery production.

That would put current production in the range of something like 25 GWh, which simply can't be true. Overall consumption (including storage and devices) in 2018 is estimated to be around 150 GWh. Tesla alone will probably consume cells with a yearly rate of more than 20 GWh in 2018. I also suppose, that at least 100 GWh of those 150 GWh are used in vehicles of all kind today.

Lithium-ion battery consumption to reach more than 148 GWh in 2018, says new report - Energy Storage Networks

Unlike for supplies of transmissions and similar ICE-components, the VW group cannot just call some local company which will then deliver this enormous amount of batteries right on time at almost zero margin.

So I am very curious to learn how the supply of battery cells (or packs) for 1 million cars annually will be secured. Automotive cell production in Europe is currently non-existing and for a production on that magnitude even securing the raw materials will be a challenge.

It's not like they simply try to call the local electronics store to get those batteries. I'm sure you remember the articles from some month ago, that they have been trying to secure supply contracts for battery cells with a volume close to $50 billion. They seem to be doing this today, to be prepared when they need them 3-5 years from now.

Regarding those missing factories in Europe, the VW Group has plants all over the world and plans to produce EVs in several locations. So a lot of those cars will probably be sold in Asia and the plants will be supplied by battery factories in Asia. Looking at current capacity projections on a global scale they currently seem to be between 250 and 350 GWh by 2022, depending on where you look and how old the data is. There have also been quite some announcements, when it comes to new european battery factories.

Not to be misunderstood: I can not be sure that the VW will achieve that goal until it happened. Maybe it's less and they can only ramp to 600k or 800k? Maybe it takes them until 2023 since things are delayed? I don't know and i don't really care, since it's not very important for the point i was trying to make, if they are a bit later or volume is a bit lower. It's just something i'd want to be aware of, if i was long TSLA.

Of course everyone here is free to believe nothing of this will happen and it's simply more lies and vaporware announced by VW, as Krugerrand demonstrated with his really fine and well thought-out post over here ...

Yep, maybe in a year or two, definitely in 2-5. *yawn* Been hearing that for over 6 years already.

Edit:

A majority of those BEVs are earmarked for China?

I don't know for sure, but i think so. I'd guess at least 40-50%.
 
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