TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[uselesslogin]

I think we've entered into a holding pattern waiting for Q3 financials and presentation of new board members. Hopefully there will also be news about the DOJ investigation being dropped.

One catalyst I'm curious about in the second half of October is the CR reliability survey. Last year Model S received 'above average' and no one noticed because the Model X received 'far below average.' I'm thinking the X will improve and we might just get a decent rating on the 3 as well.

 

[anthonyj]

Based on what?

Based on market action. I’m long with $150k on the line but this is brutal

 

[beachbum77]

Careful:

• Vehicles "in transit to customers" are not unsold inventory, they are matched to real customers and the delivery acceptance rate is beyond 99%.
• We don't know the inventory levels , they are only disclosed as a lump sum of "finished goods", where composition is guesswork based on probable ASP and probable vehicle mix. Extra difficulty are vehicles traded in and put into CPO inventory - common when a lease is refreshed.
• For the Model 3 we could try to add up all production and subtract deliveries. Will do that later today.

So vehicles in transit are the wrong kind of inventory: they are sold inventory, not unsold inventory.

Already done for you . Here you go for Model 3

The surplus inventory also includes test drive and showroom models. They are not all just sitting on lots somewhere. The bold numbers come from Tesla each quarter. So the math is pretty easy.

In Q3 45,191 units from production were available to be sold. When you combine this with the number of in-transit units from Q2 (which we presume all got delivered) you have your total possible deliveries. If the actual number delivered is less you had a surplus for that quarter.

 

[keydiver]

Recently out from Gali:

I especially liked how Gali showed that there has been "ZERO CANIBALIZATION" of the S and X models. More FUD from the shorts debunked. I think a lot of people go into a Tesla Store to see the Model 3, and then become truly amazed at the S or X. Nothing wrong with a high margin up-sale.

 

[traxila]

Wish I could short this. Think we’ll see $270 by Friday unless Elon releases earnings early or Saudi/China announce stake.

LOL. What is stopping you? Short away. Everyone else is.

 

[MartinAustin]

"ZERO CANIBALIZATION" of the S and X models

?

I notice the Model X has been outselling the Model S recently... according to the estimates anyway.

Is this because the Model X is finally coming into its own and occupying its rightful place at the top? (since SUVs sell more)

Or is it because there is now another, less expensive Tesla sedan that we can now choose? Surely that will impact the Model S some.

I would like to think it's a combination of both. I don't think it's fair to say there is zero cannibalisation.

$292. BAH... wish I had some dry powder

 

[Off Shore]

A lot of that has to do with the new Saudi prince, who seems to (thankfully) want to drag the kingdom kicking and screaming into the 21st century.

Saudi Arabia has had all of it's eggs in the oil basket. It only makes sense to invest all that money into "post-oil" technologies as a hedge for when that money runs out.

Many people don't know how truly dependent on oil the SA kingdom currently is. It's really incredible when you dig down into the details. If the oil were to run out tomorrow it wouldn't take long to SA to turn into another Yemen. The new prince knows this and is trying to change it.

Or perhaps the 12th. His human rights record is pretty bad.

 

[KarenRei]

?

I notice the Model X has been outselling the Model S recently... according to the estimates anyway.

Is this because the Model X is finally coming into its own and occupying its rightful place at the top? (since SUVs sell more)

Or is it because there is now another, less expensive Tesla sedan that we can now choose? Surely that will impact the Model S some.

I would like to think it's a combination of both. I don't think it's fair to say there is zero cannibalisation.

$292. BAH... wish I had some dry powder

Meh. I bought in the $260s recently. I have dry powder, but I'm not going to buy in the $290s days after buying in the $260s

Also too cheap to sell. Sort of a coasting period for me.

Q3 report boost should be great but not durable. It will have a profit on it. Why am I so confident? Same reason I was that Tesla wouldn't break the tax credit limit in Q2: Tesla controls all of the levers here, and they have so much riding on it. They've staked so much reputation on it that they'd burn their seed corn in order to make it happen. Even if they were coming short, they could always cut - R&D, capital, you name it - to make it happen. And there was more than enough evidence of them micromanaging the pricing levers throughout the quarter to make it happen. So I'm highly confident that we'll see a profit in Q3.

 

[MXWing]

?

I notice the Model X has been outselling the Model S recently... according to the estimates anyway.

Is this because the Model X is finally coming into its own and occupying its rightful place at the top? (since SUVs sell more)

Or is it because there is now another, less expensive Tesla sedan that we can now choose? Surely that will impact the Model S some.

I would like to think it's a combination of both. I don't think it's fair to say there is zero cannibalisation.

$292. BAH... wish I had some dry powder

Model 3 product cannibalization of course.

It's a better value than the S $ for $.

Waiting for the disagree from the person with 5 kids and a big dog they have to fit in the 3.

 

[CyberDutchie]

They don’t matter until they matter.

Do you f*ckling like your car or not?

I like my iPhone hence I hold some AAPL forever.

I like Transformers, Jedi and frozen dolls so I got some in HAS.

TSLA, HAS and AAPL all have moats btw which help their investibility.

I love my Model X, the product is not the issue, it’s the market sentiment that rules at the moment.

 

[Revhappy2]

I absolutely do not understand what is happening today with the share price. I had no idea so many wealthy people were such idiots.

Normally, the natural trend of most shares is up. But in case of TSLA, it seems these days, the natural trend is down, unless, there is some positive news.

 

[beachbum77]

They don't have to show the VIN - and maybe they ave reserved VIN 100,000 for a special occasion?

You KNOW someone will look at and report the VIN... Already shipped VIN 100k. It was reported on another thread over a week ago.

 

[Rammstein]

What do you guys think of this video?


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5It3nHaOhZA&index=2&list=WL

 

[j6Lpi429@3j]

?
I notice the Model X has been outselling the Model S recently... according to the estimates anyway.

Is this because the Model X is finally coming into its own and occupying its rightful place at the top? (since SUVs sell more)

Or is it because there is now another, less expensive Tesla sedan that we can now choose? Surely that will impact the Model S some.

if the 3 had been available when I bought my S, I'd have got one, but NEVER the X, as living in rural roads in the UK, many of our roads are only just wide enough for the X. its like a WW2 tank on UK roads. The S is big enough as it is.

 

[bdy0627]

Normally, the natural trend of most shares is up. But in case of TSLA, it seems these days, the natural trend is down, unless, there is some positive news.

Except when the uptick rule is in effect and shorts are limited to selling at market price. We have seen just how the stock moves when that's the case and it's made it very obvious why TSLA "naturally" tends to drop these days when shorts are not limited.

 

[tander]

I have strong belief that a 35K Tesla ends up being a 35K Tesla.

...

I wonder if it will end up being a 34k, then 33, then 32... Ford did that with the model T and now there are so many cars they've changed the planet, and that horse manure problem is all but forgotten. My hunch is that is part of the impetus for going private is that it would be harder to lower the price as a public company. And even if margins dropped by doing it, they could still make money on them and pretty much force every other car maker to either go out of business or go electric.

Haven't heard anyone talk about the cost diff of motors vs engines for a while. It really is a big difference in the long term, engines just plain have more parts and maintenance.Did he say GM is still investing into engines? Kind of reminds me of when Blackberry was going all in on keyboards when the iPhone was coming out with a touchscreen.

 

[Chickenlittle]

What do you guys think of this video?


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5It3nHaOhZA&index=2&list=WL

Why is he wasting his time making/selling video rather than trading?

 

[MXWing]

I love my Model X, the product is not the issue, it’s the market sentiment that rules at the moment.

Market sentiment has always been a whipsaw so nothing new at all. You just have to pick either the Bull or Bear theory and ride it out.

Add to long position on dips.
Add to short position on rises.

Bull Thesis: Fundamentally, Tesla will win multiple market segments.
Bear Thesis: Fundamentally, Tesla will go bankrupt.

Those who actually OWN TESLA's have an asymmetric information advantage over those who do not.

Many drivers who picked up their Model 3 in Q3 gives absolutely zero f*cks about TSLA price movement. They like the car or they don't. They tell their coworkers, family, and friends.

All of them contributing to TSLA's eventually rise whether they know it or not.

Which is why asked if you liked your car or not. It's relevant..

 

[tander]

I love my Model X, the product is not the issue, it’s the market sentiment that rules at the moment.

Like a voting machine in the short term... weighing in the long. A quarter or two of profits, upgrades, and bond payments it should be back to a weighing machine at least for a while.

 

[MartinAustin]

Q3 report boost should be great but not durable. It will have a profit on it. Why am I so confident? Same reason I was that Tesla wouldn't break the tax credit limit in Q2: Tesla controls all of the levers here, and they have so much riding on it. They've staked so much reputation on it that they'd burn their seed corn in order to make it happen. Even if they were coming short, they could always cut - R&D, capital, you name it - to make it happen. And there was more than enough evidence of them micromanaging the pricing levers throughout the quarter to make it happen. So I'm highly confident that we'll see a profit in Q3.

Totally agree. More things to consider -

Sandy Munro's suppressed report on the variants of Model 3 indicate profit margin up to 44% on the highest variant
Tesla stating nearly all Model 3s made at the end of the quarter were AWD. (a fair number of these have gotta be the Performance)
Or put another way... average Model 3 ASP now at $62,000 on the #13-selling vehicle in the USA. The profit margin on this ain't zero
Decent profit on Model S + X as always
Reduced installations of Superchargers in September (anyone else notice that?)
They laid off 9% of their workforce (including some good ones in my local service center that surprised people)
Pushing out major efforts on Model Y and Semi
Elon stating that profit is required to legitimise "read car companies"

I think there have been similar posts like this already on this thread. #profitsecured