-
Want to remove ads? Register an account and login to see fewer ads, and become a Supporting Member to remove almost all ads.
- Status
Slight amendment: modules that go into the Model 3 SR are fractions of batteries that don't go into 3P+ overseas.
Also, 1 RWD motor = 1/2 AWD motors.
Etc.
With the tax credit window closing, Tesla could use 2019 to push some extra SR+PUP in the USA.
Just a handful of months ago, the narrative was they couldn’t sustain 2,000 Model 3’s per week.
Buckminster
Well-Known Member
UK Prime Minister is likely to be available for Tesla chairmanship soon. She is well versed in robot technologies and screwing up Brexit means she will surely indulge Elon's Twitter habit.
I don't expect a lower LR fraction on average outside the US than in it. There will of course be variations between markets (I expect for example a lower ASP in China than Norway), but overall, the US is probably a pretty good baseline.
I do agree that a "true $35k" Model 3 is a good ways off. 2H '19 perhaps. It's only logical - as with Model 3s in general - to start off with the most optioned-out configs. SR AWD PUP should still have both plenty of buyers and good margins (as well as freeing up some much-needed cell production capacity)
Tesla's delivery estimates for the domestic SR give some insight into that. They only have the one factory and it's at full stretch pumping out premium models for the RoW it can't be making significant numbers of SR.
We all know that. I think some of you are typing at the same time before responses get a chance to post.
So Wing. What percentage of Model 3 reservations would you attribute to:
1) U.S. versus the rest of the world?
2) Here in the U.S. SR vs LR?
3) SR vs LR in the rest of the world?
Assuming 500,000 total reservations...
Completely agree!
I actually think the true $35,000 Model 3 configuration should be built and exported from the new Chinese plant once it is finished and not built in Fremont ever. I think there is enough demand for an optioned SR to last until the Chinese factory is operational. That will keep margins up until then. That is just how I would move the chess pieces on the global board.
Your take on the global LR percentage is spot on too. Here in the U.S. the SR base model will be a popular commuter car. But globally, there are cheaper commuter car EV options. Global buyers are going to pick a Model 3 for the speed and acceleration and creature comforts. My friends in Europe buy lifestyle cars, not basic transportation.
Last edited:
Please don't post links like this without at least a short description of what it is.
Fact Checking
Well-Known Member
BTW., beyond moving the goalposts note the sleight of hand shorts are performing there as well: the real financial metric to look for is what led to Amazon's meteoric rise: which is not profits but cash generation ability.
And that's going to be a huge story in Q3: over 1 billion dollars of cash generated, ~$600m of that invested into payments for Model 3 lines, the rest positive cash flow in the $600m-$700m range:
| … |
| s deliveries |
| x deliveries |
| s+x deliveries |
| 3 deliveries |
| 3 production |
| revenue |
| zev credits |
| total auto |
| services/other |
| total revenue |
| gross profit |
| [capex outflow] |
| net change in cash |
| cash & eq end |
Amazon was barely profitable during much of its corporate life, yet it became a trillion dollar company because it was barely profitable: it reinvested most of its internally generated cash into future growth:
That trillion dollar Tesla outlook is what shorts are trying to divert attention from.
And once the Q3 report is out this will become very obvious through the financials, and I think shorts are going lose control of the stock price quickly.
Not advice though.
Last edited:
Either I'm misreading or misunderstanding, or they actually reduced the effect of the previous mandate? It says that the previous mandate was reduction of 30% by 2021, now it is 20% by 2025?
X Fan
Active Member
[Insert reminder #389182 to Americans that there exists a world outside of America]
In Tesla's case, about 2/3rds of their market.
Also a reminder that Tesla is not yet offering vehicle leases, maintains only a sparse store network, does zero advertising, that word-of-mouth (which has worked brilliantly for Model 3) spreads proportional to the number of cars on the road, that many people prefer not to get a car that's in its first 1-2 model years, and about a dozen other things.
I'd add that within the next quarter, Tesla should have another 100K sales people, the happy customers that own a 3.
As this product proliferates in U.S. markets, many more will jump on board and order.
WentOffGrid
Member
Always seem to buy on the way down...but never down enough.
Me too, I am not good at this... but by staying long, a few $ should not be significant enough to worry over.
Looking at it continue to fall still makes me angry even though I know darn well it will go back up to new levels.
Sounds stupid to me, given that they only delivered 1/4 of the pre-existing reservations, and the order book is increasing.If after burning up a huge portion of the pent-up demand only produces a small profit through some creative engineering of the levers, where is the sustainability? THAT is what is holding down the SP.
Does that language sound better to you?
Anecdote: had by booster shot of Shingles vaccine today, and one nurse asked if I was doing anything interesting for the rest of the day. I mentioned I was getting a new car. The two of them went gaga that I am (hopefully, still won't believe it until it arrives) getting our M3 in a couple of hours.
jhm
Well-Known Member
Tesla has its own way of moving goal posts, too. They keep pushing them further ahead of the competition.
... until they are sold in 3-6 months, when they become income. Just like the other old inventory that gets regularly sold off.
Big institutions buying and selling shares move the share price, which can be readily seen by looking retrospectively at the periods in which Tencent and PIF were building their positions. Those institutions hold less than the 5% disclosure threshold so there is no visibility of how they are others may be adjusting their holdings as they evaluate all the controversies in the last several months.
EVNow
Well-Known Member
The main point about NYT and other traditional news organizations is that they don't lie. But, they do print sources who lie. That is why they are supposed to check with multiple sources - but if those sources co-ordinate behind the scene, NYT will get it wrong.
Ofcourse, what they print depends on who they talk to. They select who they talk to - like all journalists - based on tips or contacts they already have. That is where the systemic errors creep in.
- Status
Similar threads
- Locked
- Locked
- Locked
- Poll
