TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[dqd88]

I’m not happy about this reversal. It smells like a major set up. Nobody/no company changes 180 degrees like this unless Elon Musk/Tesla.

No sirree, I am not convinced by this report.

Andrew Left lives in Bevery Hills. Is he a neighbor of Musk? Maybe not, but I'm sure he's seeing lots of Teslas on the road, and has friends who are driving Teslas. I wouldn't discount the impact of that on someone's psyche.

 

[ggr]

My point was C ain't compatible with anything but C ( but at least you can plug it in upside down).

No you can't, whichever way you plug it in, it's right side up.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Based on #2 I think it would be funny if Tesla started posting their charging costs like gas stations do outside of some well placed Superchargers, so that other EV drivers get jealous of the pricing.

QUICK! Somebody tweet this to Elon IMMEDIATELY!

P.S. Can we make it visible from space for the Shorty Air Farce?

 

[Words of HABIT]

Not sure what all the euphoria today is for. If tomorrow's Earnings Call confirms sustained 5k/wk M3 and, and shows a profit, TSLA should be at its ATH and we are barely scraping $300. If it gets there tomorrow great. If not, it just means we need to be patient and wait a little longer. And for those who think they can time Mr. Market, today shows you why you can't. Buy long holders are rewarded. Don't give in to the FUD. Focus people. We are in the bottom of the third inning and the Tesla ball game is just getting started.

 

[mongo]

No you can't, whichever way you plug it in, it's right side up.

Actually...
Once one side is plugged in, the other end does have a right side up and upside down. There is a signal line (CC) that indicates whether to use the top or bottom set of connections for the enhanced super speed 3.0 data lines (four pairs total, only two pair used in 3.0 3.1). USB fast 2.0 can handle stubs better, so the two D+ and D- connector pairs on the connector can be shorted together (only one pair exists in the cable) no need for a multiplexer.

 

[oneday]

Hmm, did they get your permission to use your charts? If not that's a copyright crime because they used them for a commercial purpose. Could be big money suing them for infringment.

As Left said on TV today. “It’s just business”

 

[MikeC]

Priced jumped up $2.00 in AH. Any thoughts on the move?

It ended up $3.44 on 265k shares. I think it means we’re not done yet.

 

[elasalle]

OT

 

[tivoboy]

I call bull on this one. They may have some cost advantage. On things like door handles, windows, stamped panels sure. But certainly not on things like electric drivetrain components. The battery, electric motors, inverters, and control components they will have a significant cost disadvantage.

I was referring more to the fact that the full 7500$ tax credit will be in place for all other manufacturers (save for maybe GM) for all of 2019 and probably much of 2020. Whereas for Tesla, the amount will drop to 3750 for H119, and 1875 for H219. So, for a car a in the 35-50K range the after tax credit price comparisons will be signifiant.

Please don't start on how many take advantage of the tax credit. Not now.

 

[oneday]

I was referring more to the fact that the full 7500$ tax credit will be in place for all other manufacturers (save for maybe GM) for all of 2019 and probably much of 2020. Whereas for Tesla, the amount will drop to 3750 for H119, and 1875 for H219. So, for a car a in the 35-50K range the after tax credit price comparisons will be signifiant.

Please don't start on how many take advantage of the tax credit. Not now.

My mistake. I thought you were talking about manufacturing cost advantages.

 

[AZRI11]

Ok interesting that caterpillar is investing in fisker based on solid state lithium ion battery tech but I am missing something. Where are patents related to this. If you are close enough to attract significant investor from a large company why are there no patents to protect their advancements. Are there some that I have missed? Also don’t understand caterpillars interest in this tech. Heavy equipment to use battery tech? Doesn’t sound right

Compete against boring company's soon to be announced boring machines?

 

[Artful Dodger]

Non native speaker here. Seen this word being used here a few times. But isn’t capitol where the government resides and capital the stuff you can buy TSLA with?

Lol, Capital is the stuff you can buy the Capitol with, and Government (SEC) resides (rides) TSLA.

Pardon from a native English speaker, non'murikan.

 

[Off Shore]

Why do some people put “not an advice” on their posts? Is there some sort of mandatory disclaimer for financial advisors posting on discussion boards? Also why not just say “not advice”. Sorry if this is a stupid question. * Not an apology.

Local culture. Go with the flow.

Edit: An advice.

 

[Intl Professor]

Not a stupid question. I'm a relative newbie, but the "not an advice" is partially to tweak people's noses. This was discussed... recently? Sometime in the last month or so. That spawned a few other "tweaks", like this whole post being a rather mute point, or did I just beg the question

Sometimes people feel like putting a disclaimer for whatever reason that made sense to them at the moment. And sometimes its just having fun

There was a time when uber bulls like Trend Trader 007 got blamed when people took his beliefs bought high and blamed him for the recommendation when it went low. Sparked a lot of discussion about personal responsibility for your own stock purchase. Then people felt the need to remind, not an advice. That evolved into a funny. Or just a tradition that no one remembers why it started. Like a lot of wars.

 

[Off Shore]

I'm going to just toss this out there... its AH, right?

This forum has been incredibly helpful. It not only has provided insight into $TSLA and Tesla, but also into investing generally. I have specifically benefited from (not an) advice here. Both in a financial and avoiding stress way. The knowledge and the caring are both wonderful.

In fact, the helpfulness is so broad that the idea of enumerating those that have helped me seems rather silly. I try to provide my perspective (and a bit of levity) as some small compensation, but truly, there's no way to properly thank you all. Still, I feel it is worth the attempted expression.

Thanks!

There is a way to properly thank Our Gracious Hosts, with a small contribution.

 

[Sudre]

Based on #2 I think it would be funny if Tesla started posting their charging costs like gas stations do outside of some well placed Superchargers, so that other EV drivers get jealous of the pricing.

It would be even funnier if it was in miles per gallon with an assumed 30mpg.
So like 80 cents per gallon. (or whatever it maths out to in the local area)

Can you imagine the confusion at the superchargers that are at gas stations?
Or should we call it enlightenment?

 

[RobStark]

That's true, broadly, but I believe their wording was always a cautious "approximately 100,000 units" - which allows for higher production, if Panasonic is able to deliver more cells.

Currently, the Chinese market is closed off to Tesla.

Last year Tesla said China accounted for 17% of Tesla automotive revenue.

They did not say 17% of unit sales but I would say at least 12%.

It is really quite amazing Tesla Gen II vehicles still production constrained without access to world's largest BEV market.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Compete against boring company's soon to be announced boring machines?

Lithium Fluorine batteries have a theoretical gravimetric energy density that's competetive with diesel once you account for the increased efficiency of electric motors vs ICE.

Li-F batteries could approach 6KWh/Kg vs 32 for diesel, but with triple the efficency and a hundreth of the cost. Further, weight isn't usually an issue in a D-10 Cat. Indeed, that's what puts the 'bull' in 'bulldozer' and EV motors have monsterous torque.

BTW, Cat Marine diesels are what currently powers alot of those ocean-going bunker-oil burners. Just imagine a ship's bunker full of batteries. It's the last piece of the puzzle.

Theoretical-Energy-densities-of-battery-chemical-couples:​

Cheers!

 

[EngRyan]

Ok interesting that caterpillar is investing in fisker based on solid state lithium ion battery tech but I am missing something. Where are patents related to this. If you are close enough to attract significant investor from a large company why are there no patents to protect their advancements. Are there some that I have missed? Also don’t understand caterpillars interest in this tech. Heavy equipment to use battery tech? Doesn’t sound right

Caterpillar is heavily into mining as well as construction. Battery tech is a new and soon to be big thing in underground mining. One of your biggest costs for underground mines is the ventilation system. As a rule of thumb you need 1m^3/min of air for each person underground while you need 3m^3/min of air for EACH horsepower of diesel equipment underground. So never mind the fuel savings which are also decent the ventilation system savings are much more. So if you can get the cost of battery equipment down even close to diesel equipment it's a no brainer.

For open pit mines the Komatsu 930 and new 980 are some of the largest and popular ultra class haul trucks. The diesel engine is used as an AC generator that power the two wheel motors in the rear axle/tires. They use electric motor retarding but shunt the energy to a grid box to bleed it off as heat energy as they have no on board batteries (that's a lot of lost energy seeing you go up and down a ramp for each load in and out of the pit). Caterpillar still uses a mechanical drive train for its popular 797 and pretty much all other haul trucks. Fuel is one of the largest costs in for a open pit mine, and in mountain operations you lose a lot of capacity due to thinner air.

I once did a little excel sheet exercise to see if you could make a Komatsu 930 fully a BEV, but with Teslas battery numbers it's still too heavy and costly. My guess is Cat sees both the current underground market that is already going electric and the opportunity in the open pit market once batteries are energy denser and cheaper.

So Cat is no dummy and knows what dense and cheap batteries mean for the mining industry. Whether Fisker is the right horse to put your money on, well, they were always known for their sexy design lol. Doubt it's Cats only bet though.

 

[Yamantasdivar]

Yes, they further improve Tesla's addressable market - but the numbers I cited do not include these factors, as they change by country and by state: incentives are larger in the U.S. but gas savings are lower - while it's the other way around in Europe.

Great! Thanks! Demand in Europe will be interesting to see.