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TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

Discussion in 'TSLA Investor Discussions' started by AudubonB, Dec 30, 2017.

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  1. Beltsbear

    Beltsbear Member

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    Tesla could come out with a P120D using the old form factor cells. The chemistry inside the cells can be upgraded while continuing to use the existing form factor and manufacturing lines for it. This preserves the 10gwh yearly production until they are not constrained on manufacturing. I expect them to be constrained through all of 2019 even with new lines added to GF1. Heck, they will be constrained in 2020 if they actually start building semis even with many new lines at GF1.
     
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  2. Artful Dodger

    Artful Dodger "Ducimus, lit"

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    So then, the top question on most people's minds right now is "what happens tomorrow, and the day after the Earnings call?" To get some guidance from the recent past, this table presents the Top 5 Day-over-Day Gainers for 2018 TSLA YTD:

    TSLA.Biggest.Day2Day.Swings.2018.YTD.png

    Today (Oct 23) was the 4th largest day-over-day gain for TSLA in 2018. The top five days this year were, in order:
    1. Day after Q2 Earnings + Conf. Call
    2. Day SEC settlement announced
    3. Day of the 'Taking private' tweet
    4. Today: Q3 Announc. & Short Reversal
    5. Tesla AGM shows a confident Elon Musk
    So what can we take from this?
    • Clearly, on big news days the upside approaches $50
    • Markets do NOT like the SEC nosing about
    • 3 things move the market in a big, sudden way:
      • Financial Reports move the market
      • a Confidence CEO moves the market
      • reversals in sentiment move the market
    I suggest Wed/Thu will be moving daze. Trade accordingly, and good luck to all.

    Cheers!
     
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  3. Boomer19

    Boomer19 Active Member

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    the 18650s are proprietary to tesla.

    but even so, i guess they can change them a bit for another manufacturer and get around that. i’m not sure why were questioning what happens to the 18650 anyway, i guess it will just end of service, end of life, like many other products.

    But,
    until the S & X conversion to 2170 occurs which, may be a few years.
    - i think even elon said it’s no simple redesign, 2170 are taller
    - your plan isn’t so crazy. keep full utilization of the pana japan shop..up the range on the flagship cars.
    customers aren’t going to really care which format and chemistry they’re getting (even if the 18650 has more cobalt, ok, then take your engagement ring off dear, sorry)
    - gives tesla more time to expand gf1, start gf3, feed some of the demand for Tesla Energy, which is in dire need.
    (i’m assuming over time TE will be using 2170s exclusively)
     
  4. winfield100

    winfield100 Supporting Member

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    spoke to my solar installer today, there is a lot of stuff going on in Puerto Rico vis a vis electrical grid and PV n such
     
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  5. ZachShahan

    ZachShahan Active Member

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    Right, something we haven't discussed in a while is whether high Model 3 sales are leading to more S & X demand. Hmm ...
     
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  6. ZachShahan

    ZachShahan Active Member

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    I'm guessing Speigel bails before Wahlman.
     
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  7. UnknownSoldier

    UnknownSoldier Unknown Member

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    Doesn't Smeagol only have puts now? There isn't any bailing to do I guess, when his puts go to zero, that's the end.
     
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  8. bdy0627

    bdy0627 Active Member

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    I think this is prudent advice. Volatility is not going anywhere. We may hit $315 tomorrow night and then drop well below $300 again Thursday. Expectations for this earning's report have suddenly gone through the roof. Are they going to be that spectacular? I don't know. I think they will be solid. Remember, Q4 is supposed to be the real stunner. There will be some momentum for sure because of the intensity of this 180, but when we hit resistance, shorts will be piling on again with vengeance. Prudent to take some profits at some point to be able to take advantage of the shorts' shenanigans.
     
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  9. defc0n

    defc0n Active Member

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    It felt for awhile that Tesla was doing huge things there and then we never heard anything else about it. Has still been in the back of my mind.
     
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  10. Singuy

    Singuy Active Member

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    Lots to look at this ER. Profitability is only part of the picture. Lets not forget the guide. Our last guide was pretty spot on from a company that usually under deliver. What will q3 guide look like now with MR into the mix? We haven't seen a major uptick in production numbers..from mid 4k to around 5k in a quarter which means there's a bottle neck somewhere(most likely batteries). So are we going to see 7-8k/week numbers in Q4 with the help of MR and new lines coming online at GF1? There might be all sort of surprises in this ER beside just profitability.
     
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  11. ZachShahan

    ZachShahan Active Member

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  12. RobStark

    RobStark Well-Known Member

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    upload_2018-10-23_19-52-38.png
     
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  13. MXWing

    MXWing Well-Known Member

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    Q4 isn’t going to be worse than Q3 and guidance will reflect that killer tailwind.

    They can provide updates on the MR orders which is Q4 revenue recognition.

    You can sell at whatever but it’s a big assumption to just get shares back at 300.

    Historically, this is a safe bet but not sure if I want to bank on past performance leads to future performance.

    When is Amazon going to be sub 1000 again? That was a huge wall.
     
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  14. ZachShahan

    ZachShahan Active Member

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    Have been thinking about this a lot (of course). I agree it is aiming to maximize tax credits and then can start shipping to Europe, China, etc. I don't remember perfectly what happened with Model S, but think there was a similar approach, and by the time Tesla was ready to ship to US again, word of mouth had blown up demand. Then a case of back and forth up to a stable demand level.

    Mid to long term, it's practically impossible to see the Model 3 not selling at ridiculous volumes — TCO of a Camry or Prius and far better. I just wonder sometimes how long it will take for 50% of the market to become aware of the car, that it's available NOW, that its TCO is so low, and that its performance and overall quality is so wicked.
     
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  15. ZsoZso

    ZsoZso Supporting Member

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    #51935 ZsoZso, Oct 23, 2018
    Last edited: Oct 23, 2018
    So, when will the SEC sue Andrew Left for manipulating TSLA and harming the shorts ?
    His performance today has moved the market much more than Elon's tweet in August!

    ps: and I bet he will cash out on the gains (pump & dump) pretty soon, unlike Elon
     
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  16. wipster

    wipster Gold Member

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    We may find out tomorrow... why don't you ask him Zach?
     
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  17. Thekiwi

    Thekiwi Active Member

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    Profitability isnt the big number I think the market will focus on tomorrow (although it will be good if it happens - which I think probably will)

    More important numbers in my opinion:

    1.) amount of Postive Cashflow which I’m hoping will be at least $500 million, but could be substantially higher given the amount of vehicles delivered in final month of the quiarter (which helps cashflow more than cars delivered earlier in the quarter).
    2.) Model 3 Margin - will it meet guidance, and if it beats guidance, by how much?
    3.) Q4 guidance (I’m presuming at least 60,000 model 3 will be the low end target - but maybe the upper limit is a bit more than expected)

    I think those 3 numbers will be more market moving than whether or not they were slightly above or below break even in Q3. But then again I’m usually wrong with anything involving Stock Price movement predictions.
     
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  18. RFernatt

    RFernatt Solar/EV Owner/Enthusiast

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    Could moving up the ER date have anything to do with some type of co-announcement/agreement from the Saudi FII? Tomorrow should be interesting no matter what. :)
     
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  19. dc_h

    dc_h Active Member

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    Following the short squeeze rise to 269 I went for a long run and had an epiphany that Tesla had outrun its intrinsic value and I should sell some, but the following Monday the stock fell and I felt locked in and never sold. It’s 3 years later and I’m still here, but have added to my position. I have no special insight, but believe Tesla is below its intrinsic value now and any run up is likely more secular. Apple reaching ascendency in cell phones is like a bond or currency, once the brand is on top, its run will be long lived. Most brands that reach ascendence do so due to design and functional differentiation. Apple often lags in some innovations, but consumers, understand the solid performance and security that may be lacking in android phones. Apple is also a very holistic product, while other products are more limited or niche products. Tesla consumers see similar differentiation in design, safety, range, charging and innovation. Aspects like continual improvement are not normal options.
    What I’m saying is that a bull run now will be different than the model S bull run. We now have a sustainable company, with cash flow to back up the corporate vision. That change should lead to a steadier longer run to some of the values some of our more loony bulls have talked about for years on the forum. I wouldnt mind a short squeeze, but would prefer a steady run to 500 into q1 and then a slow rise to 1000 as the China plant comes online. A secular brand lead stock run can last a decade or more and while there are still ups and downs, the trend is much more powerful than a short term tactical run. If there’s a short squeeze over 1000 this week, I might unload some shares and pick up some when we fill some gaps, but I think we are entering a new era for tsla.

    Apologies if I’ve just jinxed the earnings report, but I do think we’ve entered a new phase, the beginning of the middle for Tesla. The beginning of the end is not likely for some time. Tomorrow, for good measure, I’ll publish a nice poem.
     
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  20. defc0n

    defc0n Active Member

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    I believe shorts will predictably once again attack the increase in accounts payable as the main reason Tesla is cash flow positive. I do not know if that attack will help them at all.
     
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