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TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

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its a 2020/21 car so probably the Model S at that time should be much better, but the E-Tron has great styling, a better interior and faster charging than the current S. It's the first non-Tesla electric car I could actually own one day.

If anything it stresses what Elon says that Tesla has to keep innovating to keep its moat. I'm interested to see how this charging speed stuff plays out.

It’s ~17% faster charging, but ~22% lower miles/kWh(vs Model S 100D, which is closest in terms of battery). Overall charging speed in miles/hr is lower.
 
I’m not even sure what a union would do at Tesla. They already have competitive wages, excellent benefits and a good(and improving) safety record.

Unions have been allowed at Tesla since the beginning. They have never been able to justify their dues to their value, so have never been able to penetrate. Tesla employees are happy, and obviously don't think they need a union to speak up for them, other than the occasional gripe about having to work long hours. You are right. Tesla employees are also not sure what a union would do for them at Tesla.

This is California. I've never worked anywhere that had a union in my whole life.
 
It’s ~17% faster charging, but ~22% lower miles/kWh(vs Model S 100D, which is closest in terms of battery). Overall charging speed in miles/hr is lower.

Indeed, this is something that needs to be called out more often. Manufacturers like to give out charging specs in terms of kW under ideal circumstances. What matters is mi/hr under typical circumstances. The two do not correlate as strongly as the marketing materials would like you to believe.
 
Well ....sometimes...I am sure the kids working at the Cobalt mines could use some representation.
Of course that is an extreme example but is relevant to expose what happens when the balance of power is so far out of balance.

Some unions do get voted in by workers. Some unions protect lazy slob's.

I try not to paint with too broad a brush.

I would like to work in a place where I was protected by a union... unless I had reasonable and fair stock options. If I had shares, I would want to max the productivity of my company and increase the value of those shares, and I would see the union as an impediment towards that goal.
 
its a 2020/21 car so probably the Model S at that time should be much better, but the E-Tron has great styling....

Great styling, if you need a grille. What's that for? Oh, yeah, all that heat it generates while driving fast.

Looks like an Audi, nothing against Audie B. I personally would never buy one. Not even in 3 years when they actually have it for sale.
 
I think one thing what is holding price down is also comments about working 80hours a week. I think Elon should clarify this comment, because fear is that workers will be afraid to go to work at Tesla factories. I think that Elon was referring to top executives(who also take work home) not the average assembly line employees.

Negative, people can not wait to work for Tesla. Tesla is the hottest company in 2018 for job seekers.

The 20 Hottest Companies for Job Seekers in 2018
 
It’s ~17% faster charging, but ~22% lower miles/kWh(vs Model S 100D, which is closest in terms of battery). Overall charging speed in miles/hr is lower.

I believe the faster charging part when I see it.

Jaguar did claim faster charging with the i-Pace too and it is just not doing it. We just had a 1000 km cannonball EV race in German with the I-Pace, Kona a.o. and who did win? The 3 of course.

Also I suggest never to talk about faster charging without taking in the same sentence about the effect on the batterie degradation into account. There is a very good reason why the company that builds the most advanced batteries today does not go to the charge rate of Porsche or Audi.

Elon and Straubel talked about this during the Q3 Q&A and it did sound like they really know and this guys are real experts have years and years of experience. How much experience does Audi have with Battery charging and degradation?

Fast charge may look good on paper but if you loose after 2 years 30% of your battery range than you may feel betrayed and after 3 years forced to buy a new EV again. Sounds familiar? Have had that feeling before ?

P.S. have seen this morning between Munich and Ingolstadt at the Autobahn an e-Tron SUV with camera mirrors. Looks slick and I did not know that they have approval to drive them already in Germany. Maybe an exception for testing. It was still dark but good looking car. Just hope they get the specs right in particular the Batteries. All new for them so expect a longer learning curve.
 
I have a friend that is short Tesla and I am trying to convince him that Tesla will reach 500-700 USD per share next year. His arguments are the following:

a) Competition is coming and the order book of Tesla Model 3 is quite small. If you want a Model 3, you can order it today and you get it within weeks. This just means that order backlog is already gone.

b) Market capitalization of Tesla is a whooping 60 USDbn at the moment with revenues of 18 USDbn and they are barely cash flow and net profit positive. Maybe they'll go profitable now - but even then - what is the reason for a market cap of 60 USD bn? If you compare that market cap to BMW - for example - which has revenues of 115 USD bn (8x more than TESLA today) and does make profits with relatively high margins - it cannot just be the future and the Supercharger network - thats insane? BMW had net profits of 8 USDbn in 2017!!!!

Why is Tesla valued at 60 USDbn and BMW valued at 50 USDbn when BMW is far more profitable and has 10x more revenue?


Does somebody have a good answer to that?

a) Non North America order book still huge and untapped. Competition does not produce in high enough quantities to have significant effect.

b) Revenues growing at 50% per year on average. Margins higher than BMW.

Both of your “friend’s” questions have been the talking points of shorts since I invested in 2014 and look where it’s gotten them.
 
How much experience does Audi have with Battery charging and degradation?
They know enough to make sure the battery will fail right after warranty, so replacement would be a steady income stream to make back some of the loss caused by selling the car in the first place.
We know how much they charge for parts, it could cost more than a new car no kidding.
 
Having the Ds running the House will mean the potential exists we'll see an end to *radical* gerrymandering. Many obscenely convoluted maps will be redrawn in 2021. Hoping sanity rules the 2020 elections...

Sorry to tell you: every party in charge gerrymanders. Politicians are so predictable both when not in charge and then in charge (ie Republicans complain about debt when not in power but when in charge spend like drunken sailors).

Using NC as an example, the Democratic Party gerrymandered for a 100 years and now Republicans do the same.

Advice from a 60ish person: if a politician is talking, they’re lying. Don’t fall for party hacks: all they want is power and money.

What we need is good economic policy so all folks can do well and protect the environment so our children can thrive in a climate not impacted by climate change.

And in a future where everyone drives a Tesla :)
 
I have a friend that is short Tesla and I am trying to convince him that Tesla will reach 500-700 USD per share next year. His arguments are the following:

a) Competition is coming and the order book of Tesla Model 3 is quite small. If you want a Model 3, you can order it today and you get it within weeks. This just means that order backlog is already gone.

b) Market capitalization of Tesla is a whooping 60 USDbn at the moment with revenues of 18 USDbn and they are barely cash flow and net profit positive. Maybe they'll go profitable now - but even then - what is the reason for a market cap of 60 USD bn? If you compare that market cap to BMW - for example - which has revenues of 115 USD bn (8x more than TESLA today) and does make profits with relatively high margins - it cannot just be the future and the Supercharger network - thats insane? BMW had net profits of 8 USDbn in 2017!!!!

Why is Tesla valued at 60 USDbn and BMW valued at 50 USDbn when BMW is far more profitable and has 10x more revenue?


Does somebody have a good answer to that?

Ah, I see the PREVIOUSLY CAUGHT ASTROTURFER has returned to our forum.

Mods, you know what to do.

(We seriously need permabans for astroturfers. On an IP level. Shorts who are on the level are very welcome here. Liars are not.)
 
I have a friend that is short Tesla and I am trying to convince him that Tesla will reach 500-700 USD per share next year. His arguments are the following:

a) Competition is coming and the order book of Tesla Model 3 is quite small. If you want a Model 3, you can order it today and you get it within weeks. This just means that order backlog is already gone.

b) Market capitalization of Tesla is a whooping 60 USDbn at the moment with revenues of 18 USDbn and they are barely cash flow and net profit positive. Maybe they'll go profitable now - but even then - what is the reason for a market cap of 60 USD bn? If you compare that market cap to BMW - for example - which has revenues of 115 USD bn (8x more than TESLA today) and does make profits with relatively high margins - it cannot just be the future and the Supercharger network - thats insane? BMW had net profits of 8 USDbn in 2017!!!!

Why is Tesla valued at 60 USDbn and BMW valued at 50 USDbn when BMW is far more profitable and has 10x more revenue?


Does somebody have a good answer to that?

A. The reservation backlog is worldwide. Far from being gone.

B. Why do people keep discounting the energy side? I think that will be bigger than the vehicle segment.

But instead of trying to have him change his position, talk him into shorting more! Then you can thank him for getting a lower price. And if there is a squeeze, you can thank him for funding your new car, house, retirement, etc.
 
Re, E-Tron's "150kW" charging:

1) There are almost no charging stations in the world today which can provide that. All of those "175kW" and the like CCS stations are V1 CCS, which has a max 200A limit; to get 175kW you have to charge at nearly 900V, which no EV supports. Real EVs cap out at 80-90kW on them. Only V2 CCS can handle 150kW for "normal voltage" cars (max current 500A, liquid cooled cables). These are the "350kW" stations that they're only just beginning to install. Unless E-Tron can switch halves of its battery pack from parallel to serial (ala Taycan) to up the voltage for charging, it cannot get 150kW from current chargers. Not that there's even that many V1 chargers at 150kW+.....

2) Model 3 appears to be at least 150kW, possibly 180kW. We've been told that it already supports higher charge powers, and that all of Tesla's current production line can already handle V3 powers. The battery pack supports 525A, so capping out over 180kW at realistic voltages for max current. Ingineerix argued that the cabling only supports 430A, so over 150kW at realistic voltages. But that's A) at steady-state temperatures, B) without any heat-sink effect, and C) without any air circulation. I'm not sure that all three of these conditions apply to the Model 3's charge cabling (the first one certainly doesn't for the first couple minutes of warmup time)
 
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A. The reservation backlog is worldwide. Far from being gone.

B. Why do people keep discounting the energy side? I think that will be bigger than the vehicle segment.

But instead of trying to have him change his position, talk him into shorting more! Then you can thank him for getting a lower price. And if there is a squeeze, you can thank him for funding your new car, house, retirement, etc.

Don't feed the astroturfing troll.
 
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