TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[AlexS]

I think we should do what Zac and Jesse are asking and bomb 60minutes with twitter. if shorts do that why wouldn't we. maybe we can get the full transcript out

 

[Hogfighter]

No way IMHO: if the take-rate for Performance is 10% then this limits the total number of Q3 Performance deliveries to ~5,600. But I'd say about half of those were P+ already, and this only affects the P- sales, and not all of them will be taking the refund.

$5m for every 1,000 refunds.

My bet is that most owners don’t frequent these forums, or have any way of knowing what the heck they’re talking about.

 

[Hogfighter]

OT



Unfortunately, the feature disables itself when leaving the car, like the other Easter egg modes.

The keep-climate-on-when-exiting, however, is a genuinely awesome feature that many have been waiting on. Myself included. Even when rolling out 'useless' updates (as the headline of this update wherever it's covered is certain to focus on Emissions Testing and Romance Mode), Tesla continues to push further beyond other manufacturers by including functional improvements.

If you leave the door slightly ajar, shut-but-not-all-the-way-shut, everything stays on. True for both S and 3....don’t know about the X

 

[wipster]

So this is what it's like to "loose" 50k .
Actually not too bad...all in all.

Where did you set them "loose" at? I'll try to find them... but it's finders keepers!

 

[kbM3]

Yeah, 100kW charging would be pretty difficult without liquid cooling.

I don't write off VW at all. The amounts of money they're talking about are the sorts of investment needed to actually compete. I don't trust them, but I don't write them off.

The devil is very much in the details (actual charging curves, actual prices, actual ranges, interior quality / features and at what price points / trim levels, how CCS networks evolve, how LG's scaleup (and VW's other supplers) fare and at what price points, etc), and it's going to be a long time before these things clear up. All we can look at are the "goals", and simply make observations like "They're using a less efficient form factor which means more battery costs and slower charging", "The car is smaller", "The target horsepower is lower", "100kW is only decent for 2020 if they can maintain that to nearly full", etc. But also the comparison to VW's credit, that they're shooting for a very ambitious price target. Whether they actually hit such a target, and - the really critical question - do so at volume, unsubsidized - is the open question.

Keep your skeptics' hats on, but don't write them off. Tesla has gone from "quaint outsider" to "serious threat". Those who see the writing on the wall are not going to take this sitting down.

I was thinking about this same topic yesterday... here's how I looked at it...

A Toyota Corolla starts at about $19,000 in the US, including it's ICE drivetrain.

Take out the ICE drivetrain $X thousand dollars,

Put in a 50 kWh battery, electric motor, inverter, etc. perhaps, $8K-$10K,

I doubt the net added cost is more than $3K-$5K.

And, of course, there are less expensive ICE than a Corolla (Yaris starts at $15.6K).

Nothing magical required for VW to produce a 200 mile EV that is a vehicle of comparable material and build quality to a Toyota Corolla, and sell it at about breakeven or for a small profit at about $25K.

While executing such a product well would almost certainly lead to some amount of reduction of people stretching for a Model 3, I think Tesla's general guidance of 500,000-800,000 of Model 3 demand has been conservative. I think the Model 3 will do better than the BMW 3 series at its peak, as it will still pull in significant amount of "stretch" buyers even with a $25K VW out there. Among other things, overall long range EV production at $25K-$40K will still be about 1/40 of ICE production even if VW makes 500K per year. A large gap between supply & demand for well executed long range EVs looks very very probable. (fwiw, Tesla never explicitly stated that 500K-800K demand range, but, that's the implied range of their expectations of demand I've picked up from various comments over time).

IIRC VW initially said the ID would start at the same price as a well equipped Golf diesel. The Top Gear article left out the “well equipped “ part.

 

[Carl Raymond]

No. They will meet their goals. This doesn’t stop institutions from treating TSLA like a pump and dump penny stock

My noob thinking...

Eventually profits outrun growth, all debt is paid and keeping cash surplus to needs has no appeal, so like APPL they pay dividends. At that point the share price minimum is straight math.

Am I wrong?

 

[anthonyj]

My noob thinking...

Eventually profits outrun growth, all debt is paid and keeping cash surplus to needs has no appeal, so like APPL they pay dividends. At that point the share price minimum is straight math.

Am I wrong?

Maybe in 10 years. Elon already said that they wouldn’t pay a dividend

 

[wipster]

Hate to bring up SA, but nice article about building the Y in Lathrop as a "shooting brake."

Definitely worth a read.

 

[AZRI11]

Tesla stock watching reminds me of a Hunter Thompson quote "What a long strange trip it's been"

My favorite Hunter quote is "when the going gets weird, the weird turn pro"

 

[wipster]

Tesla stock watching reminds me of a Hunter Thompson quote "What a long strange trip it's been"

I thought that was Jerry Garcia... although it certainly could apply to Hunter S. Thompson!

 

[Unpilot]

I thought that was Jerry Garcia... although it certainly could apply to Hunter S. Thompson!

You're probably right...I'm old and tired so errors do occur.

 

[Carl Raymond]

Maybe in 10 years. Elon already said that they wouldn’t pay a dividend

He’s also said that growth won’t be limited by lack of cash. Ipso facto, surplus cash. It has to go somewhere, and a dividend is a quick share price stabiliser.

 

[Smokey4141]

Tesla draws a lot of traders.

As far as the institutions, I don't think they see Tesla as a penny stock. They own about 65-70% of Tesla, or 80-90% of Tesla not owned by Elon Musk, and, they value Tesla more than they value GM or Ford. All this with a multiyear firehose of misinformation designed to separate less informed investors from their Tesla holdings. I think it's quite apparent that these institutional investors have done their homework and see great value in Tesla. All those traders buzzing around Tesla simply gives these institutions discounted entry points many times a year.

Concerning the value that institutions see, you might consider that many of those same institutions ~still~ own hundreds of millions of shares of GE.... I'd post a chart, but.....it's bad...
Just a thought, if you're looking at institutional holdings as your go-by... I'm sure they "did their homework" there too...
Good luck!

 

[wipster]

You're probably right...I'm old and tired so errors do occur.

Don't feel lonely my friend... especially after days like this.

 

[JRP3]

OT but worth watching

 

[tsunamiofhurt]

Model S appears to have caught fire, no collision. Amanda del Castillo on Twitter

 

[JRP3]

Model S appears to have caught fire, no collision. Amanda del Castillo on Twitter

Very odd the way the fire seems to be in front of the car.

 

[KarenRei]

OT

Look for an app called TURO, you could rent other peoples M3 for your entire stay, instead of just a short test drive. They do accept foreign drivers license and you can buy insurance from them for the trip, just like an airport rental.

It's a possibility. Although then I'm not sure how much time I'd actually be spending with my family over Christmas, lol! "Hi Mom and Dad, thanks for flying me down, Merry Christmas! Now if you'll excuse me, I'm going to embark on a week-long road trip across the desert southwest!"

 

[Opus BC fan]

Very odd the way the fire seems to be in front of the car.

OT
Maybe he shot the bullet through the center console?

Okay seriously now. How long did he drive on that flat tire and rim?

 

[SteveG3]

Concerning the value that institutions see, you might consider that many of those same institutions ~still~ own hundreds of millions of shares of GE.... I'd post a chart, but.....it's bad...
Just a thought, if you're looking at institutional holdings as your go-by... I'm sure they "did their homework" there too...
Good luck!

Comment was simply a response to a comment another poster had made regarding institutional positions in Tesla. Institutional ownership of TSLA has next to nothing to do with my long position in Tesla. Comes down to my assessment of the company's underlying value.