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TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

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... I also think the ABS may have been preparation for this. Most S/X leases are offered through lease partners, so Tesla doesn't have to fund them itself, but initially i think more model 3 leases could be in-house - until there is a track record of residual value.
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Actually resale values (technically not residual values since the latter is contractual and may or may not reflect expected resale value) depend on many variables other than the vehicle. In practice automotive leases have two components; money factor-translates to interest rate and residual value- the contractually set vehicle value at end of the full term lease. Either or both can be 'subvened' in which one party subsidizes either interest rate or residual value or both. Tesla subvened residual value for both leases and loans when Model S and X were launched, and the contingent liability for those, while diminishing rapidly, still is on Tesla's books.

New model introduction is a 'black art' for residual value, but entities like Automotive Lease Guide devote major effort to establishing justifiable comparable data, so not much major error takes place any more. They, and others, were very reluctant to bet on Electric vehicles, especially after the gigantic bath that had already been in their minds from the original BMW 7 series (losses of >$14,000 per vehicle), plus a plethora of losses on specific models that seems easily predictable. That all ended out with pretty much zero enthusiasm for Model S, itself in a category that typically has >60% of volume in leases in the US and UK. Thus, Elon personally placed residual value guarantees at effectively MB S-class typical levels. As it happened, Tesla has ended out with negligible losses on that arrangement.

Now to Model 3 where among the most frequent trades are vehicles that range from ~50% leases to ~80% leases in US/UK. The typical segment resale values are very well documented, but Model 3 remains an outlier not only because of Tesla but due to sedan and high performance versions. My personal point of view is that Model 3 leasing will begin in the US Quarter 1 of 2019, probably in partnership with a major operator that can also assume S and X, since the existing servicer is pretty much illiquid right now. Some, like Chase, Wells Fargo and Ally, are past masters of devising creative lease offerings and can fund Tesla operations quite easily. Chase also operates 'captives' for JLR (distinctly branded Jaguar and Land Rover), Mazda, Subaru, Maserati and others. Chase has pioneered some quite creative exotic car deals through the years. Tesla now has the volume and credibility to attract major attention in this sector and can also do some stellar financial engineering for other items (Superchargers?, Stores?, and the list goes on...

The markets will quickly get excited about such deals because they'll reduce costs, facilitate increased sale volume and dramatically reduce direct working capital requirements. Pretty rapid value can be released this way.
 
It was low, $36.5K. Bought in March, VIN 68XX, 7,500 miles, no AP nor FSD, 18" wheels (w/some rim rash), grey. With sales tax offset, worth $39K to me here. Paid $49K with tax credit effective $41.5K. My 18 year-old daughter had major back surgery Friday so my focus was 'easy', not $.
As additional data point, got $42500 from a broker for my Jan 2018 RWD, Red, 19’ rim, AP, with 15.000 miles so pretty good. Tesla was offering $39.800 for it. Jumped to a PM3.
 

Ford not looking so good....

Screen Shot 2018-12-20 at 1.48.51 PM.png
 

While simply stating the obvious for anyone whose looked into Tesla firsthand, this is a revolutionary video to air on Bloomberg... 5+ minutes of a guest speaking realistically about Tesla, and not just politely dropping his points when the hosts repeatedly try to push back with gibberish (which is what they did).
 
Tomorrow is Triple Witching Day, the quarterly expiration of stock index futures and options and individual stock options. Open interest and today’s volume in TSLA December 21st $320 puts is huge. Interest in the related calls is quite modest. I’d expect market makers and hedge funds to defend $320 to shut out put owners. In fact the situation is similar at the $330 strike price. The deep pocket writers of those puts may want to push the share price above that level too.
December is a QUADRUPLE witching month, so EXTRA witching

I know NOBODY wants to hear this, but 29x. coming.. maybe not today, but I think she's coming. Not a bd thing long term.
 
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Then the accurate thing to say here is that "Tesla vehicles have a higher profile in the media for battery related fires."

I never claimed to have statistics for this, I don't expect anyone who has access to data is interested in tallying them up for the public. But you can at least get an impression as to how much negative Tesla events are over reported by the media. There was a recent non-Tesla EV fire that barely got mentioned here, much less in the mass media. Which serves as a caution to using media report rates of incidents as a proxy for their real occurrence rate.

OT
On the fire issue, of the first three MS that were hugely publicized (two in TN) all were collision-related not spontaneous. Both TN fires were the result of collisions with road objects and were well controlled for safety. I believe the Mexico fire at the same time was the result of a collision at over 100 mph. There is a general public sentiment it seems to equate a Lithium cell with all of them so if a laptop or phone catches on fire a car using Lithium cells must also be a fire risk.
 
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Well, either I'm super great full for the people selling Tesla and letting me buy it on sale again or I'm a huge sucker and those guys get to enjoy my money. If it's the latter, maybe they can name their yacht after me?

OT
On the fire issue, of the first three MS that were hugely publicized (two in TN) all were collision-related not spontaneous. Both TN fires were the result of collisions with road objects and were well controlled for safety. I believe the Mexico fire at the same time was the result of a collision at over 100 mph. There is a general public sentiment it seems to equate a Lithium cell with all of them so if a laptop or phone catches on fire a car using Lithium cells must also be a fire risk.
Which is also dumb because it's not like people are avoiding laptops or cellphones. Clearly nobody feels it's a real risk. The stories are working though as my well meaning but not tech savvy mom mentioned that she heard that Teslas caught on fire a lot and she was worried. Sigh.
 
December is a QUADRUPLE witching month, so EXTRA witching

I know NOBODY wants to hear this, but 29x. coming.. maybe not today, but I think she's coming. Not a bd thing long term.

Ok then, good timing. Heading home for Christmas to visit my aging mother who has (mostly mining) stocks. Maybe I can convince her to move some into TSLA. Won’t be easy. When I say electric car she thinks golf cart.
 
December is a QUADRUPLE witching month, so EXTRA witching

I know NOBODY wants to hear this, but 29x. coming.. maybe not today, but I think she's coming. Not a bd thing long term.
I'm going to have $335 and $360 puts execute on me this and the next week. But if I weren't listening to you, I'd still be short on $370 put that I bought back first time you warned. So thanks.
BTW, I'm thinking about exchanging tommorow's $335 put for Jan $310 put even (both short of course), Thoughts?
 
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December is a QUADRUPLE witching month, so EXTRA witching...

Triple Witching Day is what it was called when I was in the financial news business in Chicago. It was invented by traders at the Chicago exchanges. It referred to the major quarterly (Mar, Jun, Sep, Dec) expirations of stock index futures, stock index options, and individual stock options. Actually that involves thousands of specific asset types, but could be divided into three classes.

Witches have often come in threes in mythology and literature including Shakespeare, not fours. Triple Witching Day is a clever and appropriate term. Then one day one of the exchanges added a product and asked the media to refer to Quadruple Witching Day to aid their marketing. Those less knowledgeable bowed to that. I and many others stick with the classic term.
 
First, if anyone is actually concerned, ignore the fire stories. It is not a risk to be concerned about, and the stock impact from these same repeat stories only last a few days - nothing new here, this is predictable noise.

The triple witch thing has me spooked - hesitant to buy more. Fed action is known and market has reacted. Is there anything besides Brexit and China Trade that I'm missing on the macro? IOW, is the bad news all out?

I want more stock. But general market is still heavy IMO with FAANG still overpriced. BUT Tesla has rallied 3X along side others, so don't want to miss it.

It really does boil down to asking myself "Do you feel lucky?"
 
Ok then, good timing. Heading home for Christmas to visit my aging mother who has (mostly mining) stocks. Maybe I can convince her to move some into TSLA. Won’t be easy. When I say electric car she thinks golf cart.
Use words like "apple, Amazon, Amgen, Genetech",,maybe those would trigger a FOMO response? AMGEN, best stock in history.
 
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First, if anyone is actually concerned, ignore the fire stories. It is not a risk to be concerned about, and the stock impact from these same repeat stories only last a few days - nothing new here, this is predictable noise.

The triple witch thing has me spooked - hesitant to buy more. Fed action is known and market has reacted. Is there anything besides Brexit and China Trade that I'm missing on the macro? IOW, is the bad news all out?

I want more stock. But general market is still heavy IMO with FAANG still overpriced. BUT Tesla has rallied 3X along side others, so don't want to miss it.

It really does boil down to asking myself "Do you feel lucky?"
Well, it IS looking more and more likely that we're going to have a federal government shut-down, vs. the deal that was made with 100% consensus in the senate yesterday. Now, appearing to be scuttled due to the OI

That's what is hitting is a second time today.
 
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