Plus you have to add in all the deaths due to carbon monoxide (ignoring general deaths related to ICE pollution).
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The life is so simple if you are long. You are just paying attention on your free cash flow, focusing fundamentals, outstanding business model, future, competitors, identifying FUD, decoupling your mind from Nasdaq...
You are happy and you save a lot of nerves.
You are happy and you save a lot of nerves.
OT
But for the last 10 years the Federal Reserve has paid interest on reserves: this changes the incentives, so now banks are parking tons of money at the Fed in the form of reserves, because free money.
Doing weird stuff at the central bank causes commercial banks to change their behavior.
Negative interest rates aren't working for Japan, though.
Yes, and the normal operation is that they minimize the amount on reserve at the central bank.
But for the last 10 years the Federal Reserve has paid interest on reserves: this changes the incentives, so now banks are parking tons of money at the Fed in the form of reserves, because free money.
Doing weird stuff at the central bank causes commercial banks to change their behavior.
It's always important to distinguish between borrowing rates and lending rates, and repo rates which are something else again. This is a repo rate so it's an attempt to discourage banks from dumping their bonds on the central bank.
Negative interest rates aren't working for Japan, though.
Ah, you knew about it too!
RobStark
Well-Known Member
OT
Tesla has very patient European and Chinese customers *and* a tariff reason to steer cars to China; they've also drained the US non-Standard-Range backlist; I think we're going to see unusually low US Model 3 sales during Q1 2019 due to the foreign deliveries, and accordingly no reason to start leasing.
Maybe Q2. But late in Q1 I expect to see the Standard Range car delivered to the US, which should carry them through Q2 without needing to lease Model 3...
They might get a new lease partner for Model S & X anyway though.
I'm guessing no chance on that timeline.
Tesla has very patient European and Chinese customers *and* a tariff reason to steer cars to China; they've also drained the US non-Standard-Range backlist; I think we're going to see unusually low US Model 3 sales during Q1 2019 due to the foreign deliveries, and accordingly no reason to start leasing.
Maybe Q2. But late in Q1 I expect to see the Standard Range car delivered to the US, which should carry them through Q2 without needing to lease Model 3...
They might get a new lease partner for Model S & X anyway though.
The "funny" rating is for the phrase "extra witching"
Any ideas about the timing? I have options at various strikes and expirations. I'll be fine with a 29x price at any time, but I'll have to manage my portfolio differently depending on the timing, so I wonder what scenarios you are looking at.
Lucky_Man
Member
OT
Good off-topic potential discussion that has significant potential to affect the TSLA SP.
I sense that a large decision point will be the ex-GM employee's attitude about their current UAW membership. Will they be willing to drop the union for a job opportunity at Tesla?
Even more interesting: what will be their governor's position? Or that of the state Reps and Senators? Those are the people that are in the pocket of the respective auto dealers associations who boug---, I mean, demanded protective legislation.
[MODs - feel free to move this to the politics area...]
He has a strong belief stock is going down. I priced it AMC and it was $50.54. That was near the low today. So he spent over $1.25 M.
That is triggered on a 10% drop from the previous day's close.
Fortunately, today wasn't that bad, only 5.28%
anthonyj
Stonks
Elon just stated in 60 minutes that he needs 5-6 months for SR. So, not Q1. I think it will take around 2 Qs to clear out high trim reservations backlog from Europe/China and once that's out of the way, SR comes out.
Wish it were, to match my confirmation bias
But pretty sure the stock will pop regardless, in early Jan when #s come out, and in Feb after the Q4 ER. It's just no fun seeing red on all the call options (and bull put spreads) in the meantime.
OT
I am told that "Triple Witching Hour" was an expansion of the original investment "Witching Hour", which was the period from 3 to 4 PM on monthly options expiration Friday, which was known for crazy, eerie, mysterious swings in stock prices.
I'm not sure how old the "witching hour" term is, but I'm wondering whether it predates listed quotes for options, which started in 1973. Curt might know.
Back before that, when all options were traded OTC, with no price quotes, and position sizes were secret, it was REALLY hard for anyone to predict what all the options holders were planning to do in the stock market on that day!
I am told that "Triple Witching Hour" was an expansion of the original investment "Witching Hour", which was the period from 3 to 4 PM on monthly options expiration Friday, which was known for crazy, eerie, mysterious swings in stock prices.
I'm not sure how old the "witching hour" term is, but I'm wondering whether it predates listed quotes for options, which started in 1973. Curt might know.
Back before that, when all options were traded OTC, with no price quotes, and position sizes were secret, it was REALLY hard for anyone to predict what all the options holders were planning to do in the stock market on that day!
The life is so simple if you are long. You are just paying attention on your free cash flow, focusing fundamentals, outstanding business model, future, competitors, identifying FUD, decoupling your mind from Nasdaq...
You are happy and you save a lot of nerves.
True. Wish I had never learned about options. Too much stress when I over-focus. I should just buy shares or deep ITM LEAPS and zone out.
You didn't clarify "certain situations" -- but Tesla (and other EV, I believe) drivers in cold weather areas experience (significantly) decreased range. Even with pre-heating, I lost ~30 rated on a 11.7 mile commute yesterday AM -- I know worst case scenario, etc. but that's also a "situation".
Can't argue about other items.
Doing reverse: had to put some AMZN gains into Tesla today (@314.52, not daily low, but oh well -- next order will put me over 1k shares at 28x.xx); my relative entry point for AMZN is where many of your relative entries were for TSLA.
Esme Es Mejor
Member
Yeah, but Triple Witching sounds better.
Quad Witch sounds like an obscure city in the U.K., or a game from Harry Potter.
Ask and ye shall be answered. There are only three because of that dastardly Northwich Urban District Council:
Leftwich is a village in Cheshire, England. It has been absorbed into the town of Northwich, and is situated within the unitary authority of Cheshire West and Chester. The name, given as merely 'Wice' in the Domesday Book, is written 'Leftetewych' in a document of 1278 and derives from 'Leoftæt's wic' (Leoftæt being a woman's name).[1]
Leftwich was historically a manor and township, comprising most of the area between the rivers Weaver and Dane. As well as encompassing the area around Davenham parish church, Leftwich also extended slightly to the north of the River Dane, including the site of the former Northwich Memorial Hall.[2]
In 1894 the northern half of Leftwich, which since 1880 had formed part of the Northwich Local Board district, was added to the civil parish and urban district of Northwich. In 1936 Leftwich civil parish ceased to exist, and all of its population was transferred to the civil parish of Davenham; however, most of the same area was subsequently annexed to Northwich in 1955, following the post-war construction of a large housing estate at Leftwich Green by Northwich Urban District Council
OT:
Oh boy. So the idiot House Republican right-wingers are siding with Trump, because they're total dumbasses. Pelosi says they don't have the votes for a bill with billions of dollars in stupid wall funding. Pelosi is one *hell* of a vote counter; the odds are she's right, even though this would require 20 House GOP members to say no to the wall funding.
The Senate is likely to balk as well; many Republican Senators don't like to be blackmailed by idiots. So, high odds of shutdown and a clean bill in two weeks.
If they somehow manage to cram it through by knuckling under to Trump, the idiot wall funding is going to be passed by the narrowest of margins and -- being deeply unpopular -- will help elect Democrats. It might even be rescinded.
Oh boy. So the idiot House Republican right-wingers are siding with Trump, because they're total dumbasses. Pelosi says they don't have the votes for a bill with billions of dollars in stupid wall funding. Pelosi is one *hell* of a vote counter; the odds are she's right, even though this would require 20 House GOP members to say no to the wall funding.
The Senate is likely to balk as well; many Republican Senators don't like to be blackmailed by idiots. So, high odds of shutdown and a clean bill in two weeks.
If they somehow manage to cram it through by knuckling under to Trump, the idiot wall funding is going to be passed by the narrowest of margins and -- being deeply unpopular -- will help elect Democrats. It might even be rescinded.
Well, having counted, they seem to have finally burned through the reservation list for people who wanted longer range and premium interior and lived in the US or Canada. If you do the math based on Tesla getting to 6000 cars per week, you conclude that this rather limited market must now, in its steady state, be smaller than 300,000/year. Does this *actually* surprise anyone?
So yes, they're getting ready for European and Chinese production, prepping for SR production, and taking the time to resolve production bottlenecks. And yes, they're finally producing cars faster than demand for Long Range and Medium Range Premium Interior cars in the United States and Canada.
If they'd been able to sell 300,000/year of those, I'd have been shocked. The only vehicles which sell more than that in the US are the Honda Accord, Toyota Corolla, Honda Civic, Toyota Camry, Honda CR-V, Nissan Rogue, Toyota RAV4, Ram Pickup and "Ford F-Series" (which is a cheat because it's four different models). All of these are a lot cheaper. We'll have to wait for the base model to come out before US demand exceeds this level. That should be sometime in Q2.
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