What we need now is an epic Inverted Head and Shoulders. 0% APR in China is huge. All we need is for analysts to comment on China, or for Tesla to announce who it's China partner(s) will be and when we can expect a second Gigafactory. Elon reaffirmed expectations of producing 500,000 vehicles annually by 2018-2019. Tesla will need a second Gigafactory by 2020. Panasonic announced today that it is upping its acquisitions to prepare to increase production for Tesla. Why wasn't this reported by anyone?
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TSLA Technical Analysis
- Thread starter Robert.Boston
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I would like to see $180.....It will take some really nice macro tailwinds OR a small short squeeze. The former, IMO, is more likely than the latter for the two remaining trading days this week.
chickensevil
Active Member
If I was correct:
View attachment 111534
But I would rather wait than buy. When blue line is broken then TSLA will fall much lower and every UP will be great for shorts... but not yet
I'm sorry but who looks at more than a weekly chart to see how things are trending? Are you really basing us falling to 135 on something that happened over two years ago?
Two possible bounce high from TA chart:
1) between 177 and 181 which are the two lows of 2014.5 and 2015.3;
2) MA5, today is at 174 and we might already reached this morning
Barring no substantial model X and model 3 news coming in short term. It's likely to see SP pull back to 150-160 range IMHO.
Btw, I sold 80% of my position before closing yesterday and @ opening today. Will try to buy them back if it can reach 150-160. If SP dropping to 140ish or lower again, I'll use the profit from "sell high buy low" to buy some weeklies/monthlies betting good X/3 news coming in in March.
1) between 177 and 181 which are the two lows of 2014.5 and 2015.3;
2) MA5, today is at 174 and we might already reached this morning
Barring no substantial model X and model 3 news coming in short term. It's likely to see SP pull back to 150-160 range IMHO.
Btw, I sold 80% of my position before closing yesterday and @ opening today. Will try to buy them back if it can reach 150-160. If SP dropping to 140ish or lower again, I'll use the profit from "sell high buy low" to buy some weeklies/monthlies betting good X/3 news coming in in March.
Zhelko Dimic
Careful bull
Thanks for sharing!
Nice to see actions of someone who more aggressively maintains his position than I do.
Q: who looks to weekly chart to see how things are trending?
A: ME
Why? Because I know how "trend" is working and proceeding.
I don't know if 135 is target or lower... or low (140) was actually LOW and opportunity to buy. Time will tell.
I can see trend range (and turning points) using weekly or monthly chart. TSLA is too young for monthly anyway.
Too much to explain how it works. I tried to several people but they didn't understood.....
So - be patient
As a short term trader who bought in the 140s during the last downturn, I'm looking to sell soon.
I follow Fibonacci levels and it seems we hit 50% of the recent high of 270 when we went to 135. A 50% retracement of 135 should put us in the 200 range before hitting a wall.
Is this a good approach? I think we hit this level this week which will give me an opportunity to reenter when we retest 180 again.
BTW, I'm only using options.
Thoughts?
I follow Fibonacci levels and it seems we hit 50% of the recent high of 270 when we went to 135. A 50% retracement of 135 should put us in the 200 range before hitting a wall.
Is this a good approach? I think we hit this level this week which will give me an opportunity to reenter when we retest 180 again.
BTW, I'm only using options.
Thoughts?
dmunjal - I think your strategy is at the mercy of the TSLA PR machine (known as Elon tweeting and mysterious invitations to highly anticipated parties, Model 3 and Gigafactory). All you said could happen, but we also may have waved goodbye to 180. I don't know, I would hate to be caught on the sideline waiting for 180 with the type of anticipation that's likely building.
I don't use TA, but certainly appreciate what others offer. I have a few wires upstairs that help me see things at times (and miss them at others).
Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016 - Page 452
Hits $141.05 that day for the low of 2016. I hope.
I don't use TA, but certainly appreciate what others offer. I have a few wires upstairs that help me see things at times (and miss them at others).
Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016 - Page 452
Hits $141.05 that day for the low of 2016. I hope.
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jesselivenomore
Member
The big inverted hammer happened in last august too. It not necessarily means the inversion of long term trend. From monthly chart, TSLA still under down trend channel. But, yes, short term it might look bullish. It would be interesting to see if march reproduces last september chart with "hammer".
jesselivenomore
Member
A hammer needs to close at or above the open price of the candle with a long tail. Also, as an indication of capitulation, it needs to come at the end of a trend. Last August did not fulfill either of those criteria. It came at the top of a trend(which makes no sense in the context of a capitulation), and did not close above the open price. This is why I posted on 2/29 that where we closed that day was so significant - it determined whether the monthly candle would qualify as a hammer or not.(a few points lower and it would not have, it was up in the air until the very last day of the month)
I think it's inappropriate to stick with monthly open and close. Aug fall happened in the second half while the Feb fall happened in the first half, so Feb recovery has much better chance to see "close above open" from monthly chart even the recovery magnitude is similar. It just matters sliding window you choose. What I'm trying to say it's risky to turn into bullish based on single month performance. especially TSLA has habit to have big run up followed by big correction like 8/9/10 in 2015. Also the macro and fundamental doesn't support bullish at this point.
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Assuming that reversal of the trend pans out as you see it (my understanding that your criteria is breaching $220 level on a high volume), do you currently see any information that could indicate possible range for the top of the forming uptrend (in terms of SP and/or time frame)?
jesselivenomore
Member
A hammer, or any candlestick pattern, is based on open and close by definition. It is fine if you believe TSLA has a propensity to correct after a large rally(most things do), but you cannot call last August an inverted hammer because by definition it was not. And that is the value of identifying patterns to begin with - while most of the time large rallies in any stock is followed by corrections, in the case after a reversal hammer you are looking for further continuation to the upside. That does not mean that upside is guaranteed, patterns fail sometimes. Which is why I have been saying - if we continue to the upside here it will be a confirmation of the hammer(I will add to my long), if we fail here I will sell.(below 180 roughly)
jesselivenomore
Member
There is resistance at 235-40 and 280, both of which I believe we would consolidate at or pullback from. But the key takeaway from a break of 220 on high volume(average volume the past month has been over 5.5M, so IMO 9M will be necessary) is that, as you said, the trend would be reversed. So this means that even as we pullback from these resistances, I would be a buyer as long as we stay above 180, and expect us to eventually break through these resistances. Although to trade above 280 we will need fundamental(cash flow) confirmation. Technicals is merely a visualization and reading of buying and selling flow - realized as price action. And price action usually precedes and leads fundamentals since the stock market is speculative in nature. So yes we need fundamentals to confirm an uptrend, but by the time that happens share price will already be much higher.
If we fail to break 220 and pullback, I would not be a buyer because the reversal would not be confirmed and the downtrend could continue. In fact I would be a seller below 180.
That said trading based on technicals is all about degrees of probability. It is not about betting the farm on any one setup, but rather continuing to replicate them while minimizing your losses, and profiting from an edge over time.
The Blue Owl
Endangerous Herbivore
I know nothing about TA and I don't consider myself a good trader, so I'm curious what experienced traders think about a particular aspect of the picture below.
We can see that once the stock hit the most recent bottom, it went through a brief phase of turbulent stagnation, then after Feb 12 it started to rise. What strikes me is that the choppiness of the rise was highest at the beginning, after which it progressively started to smooth out. Over the last week, the rise almost became a straight line (on this logarithmic scale). At the same time, volume hasn't increased, and it may have actually decreased a little.
I am interested in an interpretation of the plot in terms of presumed behaviour of the the trading crowd that's behind it (hopefully without the TA terms which I'm not familiar with). Of course, this could only be speculation, but informed speculation on what the progressive smoothing on lower volume might mean would be appreciated. Maybe also throw in a guess about what this could mean for the next two weeks before the Model 3 reveal.
(I now see Jesse is still banned. That's too bad.)
We can see that once the stock hit the most recent bottom, it went through a brief phase of turbulent stagnation, then after Feb 12 it started to rise. What strikes me is that the choppiness of the rise was highest at the beginning, after which it progressively started to smooth out. Over the last week, the rise almost became a straight line (on this logarithmic scale). At the same time, volume hasn't increased, and it may have actually decreased a little.
I am interested in an interpretation of the plot in terms of presumed behaviour of the the trading crowd that's behind it (hopefully without the TA terms which I'm not familiar with). Of course, this could only be speculation, but informed speculation on what the progressive smoothing on lower volume might mean would be appreciated. Maybe also throw in a guess about what this could mean for the next two weeks before the Model 3 reveal.
(I now see Jesse is still banned. That's too bad.)
The Blue Owl
Endangerous Herbivore
It's worth noting that something similar seems to have happened to the NASDAQ. Could it be that most of TSLA's recent rise is mainly due to the macro fears slowly subsiding, and we're just recovering from being oversold, as Julian suggested? Could the fading of macro concerns explain not only the rise, but also the smoothing in TSLA?
The TSLA chart is currently quite interesting. We just broke the 200 day SMA, and seem to be poised to close the $240 gap from 12/31/15 - 01/04/2016. This will bring us up into the October-November-December regression channel. The 20-day SMA had crossed the 50-day SMA last week, and gap between them is still increasing, with a slow and steady increase in volume through the last week. All of the above is unfolding on the background of macro tail winds with the same trader who predicted oil dip to $26 last November, is speculating that current oil climb will continue until it hits $49 (I know - the enthusiasm about the oil price action seems pretty irrational to me - but what do I know...)
I am in the process of setting up time delayed spreads (bought lower legs - Jan 2017 $190 and $220 and April 15 $230 - all green now). My original plan was to sell upper legs as we close the $240 gap, but I am wondering whether it is more likely at this point that as TSLA closes the $240 gap and runs into the old regression channel, it might continue the run-up to the $260 resistance point.
Anybody wants to share their thoughts on this?
I am in the process of setting up time delayed spreads (bought lower legs - Jan 2017 $190 and $220 and April 15 $230 - all green now). My original plan was to sell upper legs as we close the $240 gap, but I am wondering whether it is more likely at this point that as TSLA closes the $240 gap and runs into the old regression channel, it might continue the run-up to the $260 resistance point.
Anybody wants to share their thoughts on this?
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