TSLA Technical Analysis

[chickensevil]

Well, you have your gap close, the highest trade today was 239.88. I assume that is close enough right?

On the technicals side we have also basically completed the V shape today, so I would assume that people are piling in on both sides right now to trade on us going up or returning back to the downside. This is likely the reason for the immediate sell off right as we neared 240 and is further evidenced by people reporting that there are no shares left to short on their brokers.

Chart could basically go either way, but in order to actually keep going up, we need to fully break the 240 level. That might be tough since shorts clearly jumped the gun here to keep it from going on up over 240 and creating the more bullish signal.

 

[highend]

$140 was DIP and low and target for downtrend. My range seemed even $135 but on monthly chart the $5 really doesn't matter.
Don't look where is upside... Sky is the limit and trend is UP Buy dips, proper SL needed. How about breaking $3xx ?

I have resistance: $247 and then... $306 another step, and $370-390 target in my system.

and what I think is - we go to $290 (previous both TOPs), we break to $306... where many people will BUY and they will be pissed, then we go back to $250 area and THEN -> SKY.

But don't think and trade - just trade

 

[austinEV]

With the exception of the Feb Freakout, we traded between 280 and 180 for 2 years. The 200 day SMA was stuck almost flat at 230-240 for 2 years. We have just reverted to the long term median, with more reasons to be optimistic than in any previous period. We cleared the 200 day. I see zero reason to not trade above that, between the 200 day and the defacto ATH of 280. News will push us above, but there are many such potential news events.

It seems hard to imagine now, but stock prices justify themselves. I expect TSLA to have BUZZ. If The Car is attractive, that will be IT. Specs we basically know now. People will be buying and selling TSLA for 280, 290, 300 and why not? With new reservation numbers coming out every day in April, the company will feel like a different proposition with a new forward valuation.

 

[jhm]

Do we have any technical analysis folks looking at the oil market? I'd love to have some TA input in the Shorting Oil, Hedging TSLA thread. I view oil as range bound on fundamental grounds, but it would be nice to have some TA commentary too.

 

[drinkerofkoolaid]

The only thing technicals can tell us about the oil market is that $25 is an absolute bottom. I think Oil will be $100-$150 a barrel once the glut works itself out, more oil companies go bankrupt, and speculators and regulators begin to price in externalities. It it's not in anyone's interest for oil to be anywhere near $25 a barrel.

 

[drinkerofkoolaid]

If this is an inverse head and shoulders, isn't the extent (length) of the rally usually a function of the length of the base? This looks like perfect consolidation ~$230.

 

[neroden]

Couldn't give you a technicals on oil, but to chime in with drinkerofkoolaid, fundamentals say that there's no way oil stays below $30 for long. Under $30, *all* new drilling is unprofitable with the exception of a few Middle Eastern sites.

 

[The Blue Owl]

This LA Times article manages to spew more methane than the recently sealed Aliso Canyon leak.

 

[dc_h]

This LA Times article manages to spew more methane than the recently sealed Aliso Canyon leak.

Strange that the LA Times would have such an overwhelming negative bias against the second largest private sector employer after Disney and the fastest growing major employer. Their disdain for Elon is worse than Cory Johnson and seems like a well funded more articulate Serking Alpha. Inconsistent use of facts, questioning AP as if it didn't already exist and noting the "huge" GM response to the EV market, apparently making Tesla irrelevant or unneeded.
What's up LA Times? Why do you hate the states most important manufacturing and engineering employer?

 

[jdw]

Not to mention, referencing the Teslerati poll of people who had one or more drive units replaced. A total of 242 responses where zero drive units replaced was not an option, nor was mileage or manufacture date indicated. Weak.

 

[Bgarret]

Strange that the LA Times would have such an overwhelming negative bias against the second largest private sector employer after Disney and the fastest growing major employer. Their disdain for Elon is worse than Cory Johnson and seems like a well funded more articulate Serking Alpha. Inconsistent use of facts, questioning AP as if it didn't already exist and noting the "huge" GM response to the EV market, apparently making Tesla irrelevant or unneeded.
What's up LA Times? Why do you hate the states most important manufacturing and engineering employer?

I don't remember what thread it was on, but someone's relative worked for the paper and said that the entire editorial staff detested Elon and that there would not be a positive story related to Tesla, SpaceX or Solar City under this regime. If you see LA Times, read Wall Street Journal West Coast....avoid unles you have strong decontamination and delousing readily available.

 

[AndreN]

I don't remember what thread it was on, but someone's relative worked for the paper and said that the entire editorial staff detested Elon and that there would not be a positive story related to Tesla, SpaceX or Solar City under this regime. If you see LA Times, read Wall Street Journal West Coast....avoid unles you have strong decontamination and delousing readily available.

I've got a joke I keep telling myself that if Elon cured cancer, the LA Times story about it would be entitled: "Elon Musk puts thousands of doctors out of work".

 

[MikeC]

I've got a joke I keep telling myself that if Elon cured cancer, the LA Times story about it would be entitled: "Elon Musk puts thousands of doctors out of work".

They would also quickly point out all the billions the government will have spent "subsidizing" Elon's cancer research. Why couldn't he just stick to free market principles? The bears on SeekingAlpha will quickly point out that if there really was any demand for a cure for cancer, someone would have supplied the cure already. That's how efficient markets work, right?

 

[Fallenone]

Wait, is this the TA thread?

 

[AndreN]

Yeah, sorry I went off topic. I'm not a TA expert. I do see that looking at TSLA's chart, we crossed and closed above the 200 day average Friday on high volume. Isn't that normally a bullish sign?

 

[Bgarret]

Sorry - some of the fault is mine. I am also no TA maven, but as Curt Renz often talks about the difference between modeling charts with a normal company and a fast-growing disruptive company, I'm going to throw out a TA-busting hypothesis. Most of the TA description of a cup-and-handle chart formation stresses the rounded, flat base at the bottom. Many are quick to say that a V-shaped cup lessens the predictive nature of the chart.

Fine.

But within the context of a momentum stock like Tesla and a historically poor macro market (worst on record, worse than 1929, 2000, 2001, 2008, 2009...worse than ever) if you squint, can't you see a more textbook cup-and-handle formation, distorted by macro to V-shaped, now responding/resolving to the upside as you would expect?

I dislike TA. Seems a little Ouija board to me...that being said, take a look at High End out of Poland. He's gotten his share of grief for his posts but post 469 on Feb 4th and # 502 on March 21 are interesting reading.

Good luck to all - should be an interesting week. Look forward to the TA experts and what they see in the tea leaves.

 

[austinEV]

Yeah I owe the cup-with-handle theory an apology. It is working out as predicted.

 

[Electrifying]

on 30 minute chart, 238 area is trendline support and if the trendlines stay intact, I think we may see 255 by Friday.

 

[Ulmo]

on 30 minute chart, 238 area is trendline support and if the trendlines stay intact, I think we may see 255 by Friday.

1. That chart is bigger than the Model 3 event (chart too big? i.e., another chart since then?)
2. That chart is high on the right because of the Model 3 event (chart too small? i.e., a chart that smooths out Model 3 hump?)

Model 3 was "priced in", and now has "confidence of demand", so I'm not sure how those play out in future compared to the whole company. And timing is weird: problems we all saw in January just hit the stock last night, even though the stock has been raising for two months out of that whole BECAUSE we all saw those problems getting solved. So, there's people who already saw things happen building into stock AND people who are just learning of things that are past building into stock after the first people.

I'm a novice here, so just throwing in my 1 cent.

 

[austinEV]

This is how I think of the current price action:

(2 year daily chart). The story couldn't be simpler. With less good news to consider, we traded between 180 and 280. We had a Feb crisis of faith/Macro driven downturn, but we haven't even retested the old highs. Now is a reasonable time to break through and find new highs based either on new engagement from investors learning about the M3 or improved financials some time this year.