OK, do not put words in my mouth! It is not *insane*. It is *delusional*. I do not remember seeing any insane people over there. Got that?
Got it! The difference: TAs = delusional, EW= insane...
hence my happy place over here in the TA thread....
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TSLA Technical Analysis
- Thread starter Robert.Boston
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- elon is an ass TSLA
Got it! The difference: TAs = delusional, EW= insane...
hence my happy place over here in the TA thread....
is there a way to somewhat generate a Keltner channel if all I have is a close price as it looks like a tube BB without the SD expansion/contractions, ie, use the SMA and +/- a tiny bit, tweaking it with a "fudge factor"
Your NVDA's observation is very interesting. It's even greater than the upper BB(30,3). It's done this before. In statistical process control terms, this is known as a mean shift. The tall tell signs seem to be the strong gap up pattern. The $1M question is to identify an early mean shift vs an outlier. I think the gap up is strong evidence for a mean shift imo. My guess is there was some sort of trigger back in May 10 that caused the mean shift. I don't follow NVDA close enough to know though.
Great ER May 10-- I remember, because I practically yelled at my wife (as much as I could via text) to buy NVDA at market at the close, before the ER*. She hates buying at market, always prefers to have a buy limit hit.
Agree, I think it will be a mean shift (thanks for teaching me that). Very similar to May 10 pattern. That's why I think the SP will go up, but not like today, and likely fall at the upper 3SD for tomorrow. My WAG...
*it formed a Homing pigeon(+) 2 day candle pattern, with an inverted hammer as the 2nd day. IIRC the intra-day pattern didn't look like day 2 was going to change significantly at the last minute. This was an actual ST trade where I took advantage of the candles and it worked out...especially around ER--not the wisest move btw.
I'm curious, is there already an indicator that combines (?) sentiment(?) and momentum and such like the following
1) A/D line is +155 million since 11/30/2016
2)) avg daily vol over that time is 1.010 Billion shares, or ~15+% of shares traded are upward pressure (198 days time avg daily vol)
at present, i'm not so much interested in the slope, since it a VERY nice upwards slope, but more if it is "rolling over" or flattening in advance of rolling over.
1st deriviative is acceleration
2nd derivitive is rate of change of acceleration (slowing down or rolling over)
or is there already an indicator
(and does anyone know where I can get raw data of A/D line? schwab holds it pretty close to the vest
1) A/D line is +155 million since 11/30/2016
2)) avg daily vol over that time is 1.010 Billion shares, or ~15+% of shares traded are upward pressure (198 days time avg daily vol)
at present, i'm not so much interested in the slope, since it a VERY nice upwards slope, but more if it is "rolling over" or flattening in advance of rolling over.
1st deriviative is acceleration
2nd derivitive is rate of change of acceleration (slowing down or rolling over)
or is there already an indicator
(and does anyone know where I can get raw data of A/D line? schwab holds it pretty close to the vest
A/D line is basically total number of shares bought at higher prices vs total number of shares sold at lower prices.
So, out of the appx 1 Billion shares traded 11/30/2016 to present (6x the number of TSLA shares), 155 million were bought at slightly higher prices than sold at slightly lower prices, during which time TSLA went from $179 to $380+, over 100%
If you look, the A/D line overall declined from April, 2016 to 11/30/2016 about 66 million shares overall downwards.
What i still find intriguing, is the turnaround virtually coincided with the Robin Hood investing conference, of millionaires and billionaires, where Mark B Spiegel gave his 152 page powerpoint presentation, that looked like a 3am get it done for an 8am class and extremely unprofessional in my opinion, about why Tesla should go to a zero valuation, giving me more confidence in it as Ron Baron is looking for TSLA to go far far up in price and value, over the next 10-15 years
Schwab has it as one of their indicators but refuses to let you get raw data so i have to eyeball stuff
How can I get Marks 153 pages? I want a good laugh.
Careful what you ask for. This is time you won't get back.
A small hedge fund manager threw shade at Tesla's Elon Musk at a private conference and said the stock was going to zero
Of course that was when he was addressing the Robin Hood Conference for hedge fund managers on 2016 NOV 29 when TSLA closed at $189.57.
AKA. the "Spiegel Bottom", when Tesla rose and rose and rose.....
Revisiting the 2SD/3SD idea we've talked about:
TSLA:
NVDA:
So this is interesting. NVDA did what I think we predicted. It basically flattened out and allowed the SP to fall back below the 3SD, while keeping above the 2SD. This also fits with it's recent price history (see May circled). So would expect another 1-2 days of this movement, but slowing falling back to the 2SD and then back under.
TSLA however, flipped back under the 2SD today. But if you look at recent price history, TSLA doesn't tend to stay above the 2SD for long. An example (circled) showed only 2 days, then it fell back. This run was actually one of the better ones (3 days above 2SD). Most tend to be 2-3 days in this 2-3 SD range.
So why?
My guess is profit taking/rebalancing (we've seen some here on TMC) and shorts. The question will be whether we are seeing profit taking from the remainder of the convertibles from Fidelity--which is a distinct possibility. My gut though, is the shorts.
TSLA:
NVDA:
So this is interesting. NVDA did what I think we predicted. It basically flattened out and allowed the SP to fall back below the 3SD, while keeping above the 2SD. This also fits with it's recent price history (see May circled). So would expect another 1-2 days of this movement, but slowing falling back to the 2SD and then back under.
TSLA however, flipped back under the 2SD today. But if you look at recent price history, TSLA doesn't tend to stay above the 2SD for long. An example (circled) showed only 2 days, then it fell back. This run was actually one of the better ones (3 days above 2SD). Most tend to be 2-3 days in this 2-3 SD range.
So why?
My guess is profit taking/rebalancing (we've seen some here on TMC) and shorts. The question will be whether we are seeing profit taking from the remainder of the convertibles from Fidelity--which is a distinct possibility. My gut though, is the shorts.
Short interest:
TSLA:
NVDA:
So my gut is that the lower short interest in NVDA is likely to let it run more in price. As long as TSLA has a significant short interest, these strong upward SP movements will likely be capped out at around 2-3 days.
FWIW, most of the last days in the 2SD-3SD range (before it falls back below 2SD) seems to have long upper wicks on the candles. Usually small bodies and spinning tops.
This time the real body was pretty long, which fooled me to think that this time may be different. I'll put this as a learning moment... and I think I'll start calling these moderate sized real bodies with long wicks "Tootsie roll" days, for lack of a better description.
TSLA:
NVDA:
So my gut is that the lower short interest in NVDA is likely to let it run more in price. As long as TSLA has a significant short interest, these strong upward SP movements will likely be capped out at around 2-3 days.
FWIW, most of the last days in the 2SD-3SD range (before it falls back below 2SD) seems to have long upper wicks on the candles. Usually small bodies and spinning tops.
This time the real body was pretty long, which fooled me to think that this time may be different. I'll put this as a learning moment... and I think I'll start calling these moderate sized real bodies with long wicks "Tootsie roll" days, for lack of a better description.
To be stay consistent with @GoTslaGo , I've change the table to reflect potential price points that equal the BB(20,2) and BB(20,3) when trading either near the upper or lower bands. Notice how much greater the SP has to be to equal the 3SD upper band (one can dream). You can still access the tracking sheet with all the data (including BB(30,3) info as well) here.
2SD potential daily price upper bound for 9/20
3SD potential daily price upper bound for 9/20
2SD potential daily price upper bound for 9/20
3SD potential daily price upper bound for 9/20
FWIW, I've now read several things from technical analysts who seem to know what they're talking about who say they see signs of steady institutional buying presure. This is starting to look more like an ascending triangle since June...
The shorts seem to be over their $10 billion budget as of end of August. I'm not expecting particularly good numbers in October, but they don't have much longer to find an exit strategy.
The shorts seem to be over their $10 billion budget as of end of August. I'm not expecting particularly good numbers in October, but they don't have much longer to find an exit strategy.
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