TSLA Technical Analysis

[D-egg-O]

Given how this week went, maybe it's more informative to gauge how far we might drop Monday. (I hope this post is a contrarian indicator)

 

[winfield100]

Short interest:

TSLA:

View attachment 248693

NVDA:

View attachment 248694

So my gut is that the lower short interest in NVDA is likely to let it run more in price. As long as TSLA has a significant short interest, these strong upward SP movements will likely be capped out at around 2-3 days.

FWIW, most of the last days in the 2SD-3SD range (before it falls back below 2SD) seems to have long upper wicks on the candles. Usually small bodies and spinning tops.

This time the real body was pretty long, which fooled me to think that this time may be different. I'll put this as a learning moment... and I think I'll start calling these moderate sized real bodies with long wicks "Tootsie roll" days, for lack of a better description.

when does next 9/15 short interest come out please?

 

[Navin]

Given how this week went, maybe it's more informative to gauge how far we might drop Monday. (I hope this post is a contrarian indicator)

View attachment 249411 View attachment 249410

Why not also highlight the upper band to see how far we can go up? Weird post

 

[GoTslaGo]

when does next 9/15 short interest come out please?

Not sure, but usually gets posted around here pretty quickly when it does.

 

[vgrinshpun]

The short interest is disseminated by Nasdaq according to this schedule. The 9/15 data is due for dissemination on 9/26.

 

[winfield100]

The short interest is disseminated by Nasdaq according to this schedule. The 9/15 data is due for dissemination on 9/26.

any ideas, Up or down? someone used to post Ihor's S3 data somewhere, but i drown in unwanted data and cannot find cogent data sometimes

 

[winfield100]

found short interest from 9/22, got screen shot, this from 4:48pm SO I think that would mean 10,500,000,000/$351 = ~29,914,530 shares

 

[D-egg-O]

Why not also highlight the upper band to see how far we can go up? Weird post

Here you go.

 

[GoTslaGo]

So Friday's price action was an interesting one from my understanding of technicals.

We have a super bearish candle, long red with almost a completely flat bottom--meaning the close is almost exactly at the day's low (~10 cents off). This long red pattern is similar to the ones from previous bear cycles, and usually the middle day of three down days (oblique arrows). The last day (day 3) tends to be a smaller red day implying decreasing selling pressure, and eventual reversal. The up arrow shows an exception to the above, but the moderately long red candle has a longer lower wick showing price support.

So this implies that Monday should be a red (down) day, and based on Friday's pattern one would expect a mod-long red day, maybe 1/3-2/3 the length of Friday--so another $5-10 loss in SP.

HOWEVER, we are now pretty much down to the trend-line support (blue line). This is why Monday is particularly interesting to me. Which will occur? Will the candles hold out, or will the trendline support hold out?

Of course I'm rooting fo the trend-line support in this case.

 

[austinEV]

Your blue line is similar to the 100 day lines people have been drawing. I think those will act as support, but they tend to go below them intraday.

But, it's up pre-market on Monday so what do I know.

 

[winfield100]

Your blue line is similar to the 100 day lines people have been drawing. I think those will act as support, but they tend to go below them intraday.

But, it's up pre-market on Monday so what do I know.

the number of negative articles on Seeking Alpha seem to still be a high number, both from folks wiht "no equity" and "author short via long term options".
Logical Thought/MarkB Spiegel has also reappeared.
I use the shorts as a "vague" contrarian indicator, mixed with the "bitterness" of their responses to my "my profits and portfolio is up, you paid for 1/2 my car and my diversification to other equities, your's is down 11%" as a guage of anger
.
Mine is a vague indicator that is non-scientific or hard numbered, mixed with the A/D line and short interest, number of negative articles, curses hurled in my direction, that i'm not sure how to quantify.
perhaps a moving average of number of negative articles, weighted between "no position" and/or type of short (does this indicator already exist).

this coupled with a "how much/easily of a frenzy can I whip shorts into/number of curse responses" moving average" from actual shorts vs poseurs with no equity at risk. a type of "max screaming pain" or ROFSWIP
(rolling on floor, screaming weeping incoherent pain)
{It helps reminding them constantly exactly how much they have lost just this year to keep the wounds open and septic to keep the indicator consistant}

i'm getting a bit "antsy" but still comfortable with TSLA
(should i continue to try to develop this indicator? {and automate it, life is short})
thanks to all folks for your help
Aloha

 

[winfield100]

test

 

[D-egg-O]

If today was the bottom of the current dip, here's how much we could bounce tomorrow.

 

[GoTslaGo]

So couldn't help but to notice a repetition of patterns here. Noticed the prolonged rise to the ATH in June and the sudden drop. This time around looks like a similar, but smaller pattern. Almost like a "Mini-Me" pattern of the ATH--especially the descent: Three long red candles preceded by a small spinning top.

Previous bottom of the drop was pretty much around the same low at the beginning of the rise (~303). Are we looking at a repeat? This would suggest a bottom of around 340-342. We shall see.

 

[zdriver]

traderstewie‏ @traderstewie 34 minutes ago
I like this HAMMER reversal candle in $TSLA today. $TSLA has a habit of bouncing after HAMMER candles. Look for a bounce off this area

 

[D-egg-O]

If today was the bottom of the current dip, here's how much we could bounce tomorrow.

View attachment 250063
View attachment 250062

Not much change to this for tomorrow.

 

[D-egg-O]

Updated potential price bounds for Monday (10/2)

 

[D-egg-O]

In case twitter exchange between Elon and Ricardo Rossello (PR's governor) goes viral tomorrow.

 

[zdriver]

In case twitter exchange between Elon and Ricardo Rossello (PR's governor) goes viral tomorrow.

Aaaaand you jinxed it.

-$6 tomorrow.

 

[D-egg-O]

Aaaaand you jinxed it.

-$6 tomorrow.

Dude. I'm already stupidstitious enough as it is.
I was debating even posting anything because the numbers didn't change much from the last post.