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TSLA Technical Analysis
- Thread starter Robert.Boston
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I actually found it out just yesterday (after seeing a series of form 4's). Only a code "S" mean they sold on open market or private sale.
Uncover Hidden Treasures by Learning to Read Sec Form 4
After browsing those forms, I was mistaken. There were about two thousands shares or so with "S" code so they were probably sold on open market. But that's really just noise given the volume of TSLA.
Hey, I'm happy they were able to sell and get a good price. I'm sure those are going to help pay for their model 3's (as well as other things). They deserve it!
Side note, some only sold a portion of their "awards" and kept the rest. I'm sure to enjoy the future appreciation of the stock.... with the Semi, Model Y, etc...
Now that we broke bullish from the symmetrical pattern formation, there is a big ol' ascending triangle that needs to be taken care of. Resistance line seems to be around 370ish.
Back mid-August, I noted a potential ascending triangle that then did not resolve up. I like the look of this one better, as we seem to be bull-flagging since Mondays rip and the daily candle-sticks since Monday looks much more promising (for now) compared to mid-August (15-16).
Thoughts?
Back mid-August, I noted a potential ascending triangle that then did not resolve up. I like the look of this one better, as we seem to be bull-flagging since Mondays rip and the daily candle-sticks since Monday looks much more promising (for now) compared to mid-August (15-16).
Thoughts?
I noticed something on Monday.... after the initial surge the increase in stock price was nearly linear. If you extrapolate that as a straight line, Friday's opening also fits. It would mean closing today at around $385. I don't believe in technicals generally, particularly since they seem to ignore the rest of the market, but it looks pretty.
After digging more into the math behind the Bollinger Bands last night, I think using 30 data points and 3 standard deviations paints a better picture on the realistic bounds of the SP. Notice not even the Feb 2016 dip fell out of bounds. Reason for the 30,3 numbers is one typically wants to use 30 (or more) data points for a process capability study. 3 sigma (standard deviation) is just to cover over 99% of the variability in the distribution.
Also, notice the upper BB on the weekly and daily charts.
Also, notice the upper BB on the weekly and daily charts.
I think the 2 standard deviations provides better trading advice. Sell stock (or calls) when the stock exceeds the upper bollinger band and buy whenever the stock touchs the lower bollinger band....
Technicals work because a lot of people are looking at the same indicators and trade around them.
The others have said the same thing, but to pile on: You can mess with parameters but you are just making a private show. If you want them to have predictive powers then you need to look at the same thing as everyone else. Also, the default settings have a proven track record of predicting resistance. Today was the *very rare* exception of a close strongly over the daily bb. That doesn't invalidate it, it just makes it remarkable.
I hear what you and others are saying. I don't disagree. I find it mostly interesting, and it does seem to help answer the question, "how much the SP close above (or below) the BB band?" With the 2 sigma approach, there are still too many questions imo. It can be $4 above or $7 or $5. With the 3 sigma approach, it doesn't close outside the bands.* I haven't gone back and tested this. Just my quick observation with the listed charts. I'm definitely keeping an eye on it going forward.
*Obviously the price can go anywhere, but I assume you know what I mean by this statement.
Bingo. Unless there's some major major event (i.e. bankruptcy, key leadership life event, competition bankruptcy, etc), the SP should not close outside of the 3 sigma bounds.
Edit: I feel like it helps me understand more what happened Feb 2016. It seems like a crazy outlier when looking at it with 2 sigma bounds. It was unusual, but not completely out of bounds of what was possible.
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Bollinger did point out that he observed that when the SP exceeds the 2sd bounds they acted as a continuation signal (bearish and bullish).
Moving to a 3sd bound would remove that helpful signal, but would take away the urge to sell or buy because the sp is above or below the bands.
That's a good question. I went back and eyeballed through TSLA's daily candles. I ran both the 2 and the 3 SD on the same chart.
Looks like when TSLA hits up against the 3rd SD it seems to rise up for around 2-3 days--each day touching upon the 3rd SD. There was one point where it ran up to 4-5 days. Then it seems to fall back to the 2nd SD (currently accepted upper bands) and fall back lower.
Interestingly, the opposite pattern of going below the lower (2nd SD) bands seems to be less amount of days. There was one day (Aug 24, 2015) which went below the 3rd SD and bounced right back up.
Your idea of using the 3rd SD is an interesting one!
I wonder if we could use the amount of days where the SP moves above/below the 2nd bands and how it reacts to the 3rd band as a gauge to see if any stock is in a bear or bull cycle (this implies to me TSLA is clearly in a bull cycle). More research needed!
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