TMC is an independent, primarily volunteer organization that relies on ad revenue to cover its operating costs. Please consider whitelisting TMC on your ad blocker and becoming a Supporting Member. For more info: Support TMC

TSLA Technical Analysis

Discussion in 'TSLA Investor Discussions' started by Robert.Boston, Dec 31, 2014.

Tags:
  1. ev-enthusiast

    ev-enthusiast Active Member

    Joined:
    Sep 10, 2013
    Messages:
    1,819
    Location:
    Europe (Germany)
    Yesterday we touched mid BB.
    Last time a leg down followed during the next couple of trading days.
    Let's see if there is enough negativity this time or people interpret numbers from Wuhan, Italy and other European countries as a positive sign.
     
  2. ev-enthusiast

    ev-enthusiast Active Member

    Joined:
    Sep 10, 2013
    Messages:
    1,819
    Location:
    Europe (Germany)
    I could imagine a lot of traders seeing this trend line from the last top and dead cat bounce as well as the middle BB.
     

    Attached Files:

    • Informative x 1
    • Like x 1
  3. ev-enthusiast

    ev-enthusiast Active Member

    Joined:
    Sep 10, 2013
    Messages:
    1,819
    Location:
    Europe (Germany)
    200DMA, lower BB and above mentioned trend line converge at about $390 in about a week. Let's see if this is playing out.
     
  4. ev-enthusiast

    ev-enthusiast Active Member

    Joined:
    Sep 10, 2013
    Messages:
    1,819
    Location:
    Europe (Germany)
    Some people might wait for a double bottom at the 200DMA as confirmation to increase their long position.
    What are the thoughts on a V shaped recovery versus a potential double bottom recovery?

    I would as well like to look forward and focus on the future and ask how far a possible recovery might go.
    Will we see prices in the mid $900 range soon, or might we even exceed that range quickly given the recent development progress at Tesla (GF Shanghai, Model Y and so on)?

    I hope all are doing well.
     
    • Like x 1
    • Funny x 1
  5. jeewee3000

    jeewee3000 Member

    Joined:
    Sep 1, 2015
    Messages:
    831
    Location:
    Belgium
    Double bottom seems more likely than V-shaped IMO.

    The coming earnings season (April-May) and the one after that (Q2's earnings in July/August) will determine market sentiment and Tesla will most likely (largely) follow along.

    Personally I assume rising optimism from now until the end of June, as the pandemic could die down worldwide and the quarantines are dropped here and there.

    Then starting July the market could panic again seeing the terrible Q2 earnings of many businesses. Also the dropped quarantines could create another surge in COVID19 cases, creating pessimism all around.

    If we - by August/September get some optimism in the market again- I could see a reversal of the macro's.

    For Tesla specifically, a lot will depend on news such as:
    -their Q1 ER;
    -the battery day (May/June?);
    -the company day (recent tweets suggest this is not the same as battery day, who knows);
    -their Q2 prodcution/deliveries and ER;
    -further FSD news/releases.
    (AND: Tesla's ER results relative to other automakers. If the market sees Tesla as one of the few leading car makers of the future, a drop of the market would not necessarily hurt TSLA as money could be flowing in from other OEM stocks)

    I know we are in the TA thread, but the above is just an answer to your question. I hope we see +$1000 by end of year (we were so close!) and I still see a possibility for it, but who knows with these crazy times.
     
    • Informative x 1
    • Like x 1
  6. Curt Renz

    Curt Renz Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Mar 5, 2013
    Messages:
    5,433
    Location:
    Chicagoland
    Technical analyst Sherman McClellan (inventor of the McClellan Oscillator) was a regular guest of mine on my old TV show. Later his son Tom took his place. Below are excerpts from what Tom wrote today:

    The SP500 has already gained back half of the Covid Crash. But thus far the total open interest in VIX futures is still at a very low level, indicating that traders are not yet interested in speculating there…

    …As with the total open interest data, the current low reading for the non-commercials’ net short position says that stock prices have a long way to move higher before we have another situation with excessive trader speculation. In other words, the new uptrend should live on.

    Tom McClellan
    Editor, The McClellan Market Report
    www.mcoscillator.com
     
    • Informative x 13
    • Helpful x 1
  7. PeterE

    PeterE Member

    Joined:
    Dec 9, 2013
    Messages:
    5
    Location:
    CA
    I do a daily video market update on You Tube... See my channel youtube.com/c/stockmarketcycles giving cycle projections for the popular averages. Yesterday (4-23-20), I wandered off course a little and actually gave a price projection for Tesla (TSLA) based on my cycle projections...
     
    • Informative x 4
    • Like x 1
    • Love x 1
  8. MABMAB

    MABMAB Member

    Joined:
    Jun 19, 2019
    Messages:
    302
    Location:
    Mulligan's Valley
    Neat stuff.
    Do you post historical track records?
     
  9. Curt Renz

    Curt Renz Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Mar 5, 2013
    Messages:
    5,433
    Location:
    Chicagoland
    Technical analyst Sherman McClellan (inventor of the McClellan Oscillator in 1969) was a regular guest of mine on my old TV show. During the nineties his son Tom took his place. Below is an excerpt from what Tom wrote today:

    The DJI Oscillator Rising Index (DJORI) is something I came up with about 20 years ago. It involves calculating a McClellan Price Oscillator for each of the 30 Dow stocks, and then evaluating whether each one is rising or falling. The DJORI then reflects the percentage of the 30 Dow stocks which have a rising Price Oscillator.

    This indicator shows an extended condition when it gets above 80 or below 20. It can go all the way to 100, or to 0. And that is where the important message comes this week. Seeing the DJORI get up to a 100 reading conveys a promise that there is more advance yet to come. Important price tops for the overall market typically only come after a divergent lower high appears.

    We do not have one of those yet. The DJORI has been bumping up against the 100 level like a helium balloon bumping against the ceiling. No divergence is apparent yet, and so the implication is that there is not a proper top condition yet to end this rebound rally. Such a condition could soon develop, but it is not here yet.


    Tom McClellan
    Editor, The McClellan Market Report
    www.mcoscillator.com
     
    • Informative x 6
  10. MABMAB

    MABMAB Member

    Joined:
    Jun 19, 2019
    Messages:
    302
    Location:
    Mulligan's Valley
    Pardon me while I interrupt Curt's old TV show with a commercial...

    What did the RS line just do?
    RS.PNG
     
  11. ggr

    ggr Expert in Dunning-Kruger Effect!

    Joined:
    Mar 24, 2011
    Messages:
    6,496
    Location:
    San Diego, CA
    What is an "RS line"?
     
  12. Sudre

    Sudre Member

    Joined:
    May 30, 2012
    Messages:
    853
    From Google since they can explain it better than me.
    "The RS line is the squiggly blue line found under the stock's price bars. The line plots the stock's performance relative to the S&P 500, a benchmark for the broad market. When the line is trending higher you know the stock is outperforming the S&P 500."
     
    • Informative x 1
  13. Curt Renz

    Curt Renz Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Mar 5, 2013
    Messages:
    5,433
    Location:
    Chicagoland
    Craig Johnson is a managing director and technical strategist at Piper Sandler (formerly Piper Jaffray). He was a regular guest of mine on my old TV show, and still sends me his newsletters. In early 2003 he recommended TSLA, which led to my first purchases. His colleague Alexander Potter has a BUY rating on TSLA with a $939 price target. Below is what Craig wrote this morning:
    • Tesla Inc (TSLA - $809.41); Shares have confirmed support off a prior breakout level and reversed a ST downtrend; back above the 10-/30-week WMAs; RS is confirming the bullish price action and notable TechniGrade ranking; add to positions, a retest of the ‘20 highs ($917) appears to be underway.
     
    • Informative x 4
  14. wnorris

    wnorris Supporting Member

    Joined:
    Mar 6, 2017
    Messages:
    214
    Location:
    Stuttgart
    FullSizeRender.jpg Is anyone else looking at the $650-688 gap to be filled? I have not been trying to trade TSLA, but am thinking this may be a nice opportunity if the macros abide.

    FullSizeRender.jpg

    For anyone not familiar with gaps - playing the gap.
     
    • Like x 1
  15. Sudre

    Sudre Member

    Joined:
    May 30, 2012
    Messages:
    853
    I have always wondered what people thought of TSLA and gaps. Looking at your chart there are several gaps and TSLA blew right by all of them in a few days. I can always see gaps but at least with TSLA they typically are not any kind support. At least not in the picture of an entire week. TSLA has $100 moves either way a day sometimes. Probably blows right by all gaps. You never know.
     
  16. bxr140

    bxr140 Active Member

    Joined:
    Nov 18, 2014
    Messages:
    2,164
    Location:
    Bay Area
    Indeed. The above is a classic novice gap which is usually something to avoid...but while price does retrace (twice) to the top of the gap, there's still a lot of relative action going on without a traditional 'filling the gap'. That said, I don't know if non-conformance of price action from the past few months to the traditional 'rules' is really an indication of anything.
     
  17. Curt Renz

    Curt Renz Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Mar 5, 2013
    Messages:
    5,433
    Location:
    Chicagoland
    #1877 Curt Renz, May 19, 2020
    Last edited: May 19, 2020
    Craig Johnson is a managing director and technical strategist at Piper Sandler (formerly Piper Jaffray). He was a regular guest of mine on my old TV show, and still sends me his newsletters. In early 2013 he recommended TSLA, which led to my first purchases. His colleague Alexander Potter has a BUY rating on TSLA with a $939 price target. Below is what Craig published this morning:
    • Tesla Inc (TSLA - $813.63); Shares have confirmed support off a prior breakout level and reversed a ST downtrend; above the rising 10-/30-week WMAs; RS is confirming the bullish price action and notable TechniGrade ranking; add to positions, a retest of the ’20 highs ($917) appears to be underway.
     
    • Like x 2
    • Informative x 1
  18. Sudre

    Sudre Member

    Joined:
    May 30, 2012
    Messages:
    853
    Rather than continue to fill up the general thread I will post here in case there are any details any one wants to discuss.... altho I am not sure if using the position of options prices to call Fridays closing price is Technicals.

    Yesterday like last Monday very little was sold in the PUT department. THEY built a wall of calls at 900 so THEY have potential fear of the price jumping however THEY are lowering max pain not raising it. It was at $800 Monday at open and today it was at $795. I think THEY believe this week is going to be flat but if there is any news it will pop. MMs are betting on being able to be forced down this week and for it to never break 900.

    Things seem to be trading in the wind waiting on real news.

    I will mentions MMs when I am pretty sure it is market makers (movers)
    I will use THEY when it is the buying, sellers, hedge fund, and MMs.

    Today a wall of $850 is trading heavily.

    And remember this only works until is doesn't. Solid real news breaks Technicals.

    Msx Pain 05-19-20.png
     
  19. ev-enthusiast

    ev-enthusiast Active Member

    Joined:
    Sep 10, 2013
    Messages:
    1,819
    Location:
    Europe (Germany)
    Does anybody else have the impression that on the daily chart TSLA is working on an ascending trading channel beginning March 18th?
     
  20. bxr140

    bxr140 Active Member

    Joined:
    Nov 18, 2014
    Messages:
    2,164
    Location:
    Bay Area
    Short answer: No.

    In my experience as a run of the mill retail trader I find it hard to put a lot of value on the weak side trend line of a channel (the topside TL on an upchannel or downside TL on a downchannel), and especially if the channel is diverging like it would be if you tried to draw any kind of TSLA channel right now. I find that the support/resistance provided by other indicators on the weak side of a channel have significantly more entry/exit value when it comes to price action and testing/confirming/breaking.

    In the case of the TSLA uptrend (which is more of a sideways trend right now) since corona bottom, I'm tracking current downside support from a) 20 day MA and b) solid price volume in the high 700's with a super high peak in the low-mid 700s, and then secondary support from 1) a weak-ish uptrend line starting in May that forms an ascending triangle with deep (and thus weak) price progression, 2) a traditional horizontal support around ~680-690 (basically, the novice gap noted a few posts up), and 3) a lot of April price consolidation in the low-mid 700's (that's pretty weak consolidation though, since if you ignore the spike from this year ATR% is basically at its 2 year maximum

    On the upside I'm looking at resistance from a) the downtrend line from the ascending triangle that started pre-corona, b) price consolidation/supply zone in the low 900's and c) generally overbought CCI (CCI more or less similar to RSI, Stochastics, momentum, etc.) and d) ...that's kinda it? Maybe a stutter while retesting the ~870 high from late April?

    I'm currently income trading TSLA with 1) a recently entered calendar at $900, 2) a covered call currently ITM at $785, and a cash secured put at $720. All the sold contracts are weekly (to maximize theta) and, assuming I don't stop out, the short calls roll sideways or up in strike each week. I don't plan on rolling up my -P, and will definitely roll down if price breaks through 20MA.

    upload_2020-5-20_8-20-52.png
     
    • Like x 2
    • Informative x 1

Share This Page

  • About Us

    Formed in 2006, Tesla Motors Club (TMC) was the first independent online Tesla community. Today it remains the largest and most dynamic community of Tesla enthusiasts. Learn more.
  • Do you value your experience at TMC? Consider becoming a Supporting Member of Tesla Motors Club. As a thank you for your contribution, you'll get nearly no ads in the Community and Groups sections. Additional perks are available depending on the level of contribution. Please visit the Account Upgrades page for more details.


    SUPPORT TMC