Welcome to Tesla Motors Club
Discuss Tesla's Model S, Model 3, Model X, Model Y, Cybertruck, Roadster and More.
Register

TSLA Technical Analysis

This site may earn commission on affiliate links.
Lower BB currently at $611, upper at $957.

Nailed it. :cool:

Question: where do you get your BB info during the Pre-Market/After-hrs?

Yesterday at the Open (09:30:15 EST), Stockcharts.com had the Lower-BB at $642.66

sc.TSLA.10-DayChart.2020-02-27.09-30.png

What parameters are you using? (see the link above for parms. used with this 15-sec delay chart) TIA.

Cheers!
 
Question: where do you get your BB info during the Pre-Market/After-hrs?

A corollary question is: What are you trying to do with BB info in extended hours? BB is a decent indicator (like pretty much every useful indicator, as much because it is self-fulfilling as anything), but its most efficient when used on a daily timeframe using closing bell price. Its a bit of a blunt instrument if, for instance, you're trying to predict opening BB value and/or time intra-day entry.
 
A corollary question is: What are you trying to do with BB info in extended hours? BB is a decent indicator (like pretty much every useful indicator, as much because it is self-fulfilling as anything), but its most efficient when used on a daily timeframe using closing bell price. Its a bit of a blunt instrument if, for instance, you're trying to predict opening BB value and/or time intra-day entry.
Lol, can't trade in either Pre-market or After-hrs with my broker. :p

But the BBs move during the time the Market closes on one day but before it opens the next. It's usually not more than a couple bucks, I'm just looking for a public source of that data.

Cheers!
 
But the BBs move during the time the Market closes on one day but before it opens the next. It's usually not more than a couple bucks, I'm just looking for a public source of that data.

Sure--my point was really that the movement you're talking about is pretty low value and definitely not actionable. Definitely source that information if you think it will help, but remember: while knowledge might be power, the right knowledge is intelligence.

If its really important, why not calculate yourself?
Bollinger Band®
 
Technical analyst Tim Ord was a regular guest of mine on my old TV show. Below are his comments today regarding Monday crashes in the S&P 500 ETF (SPY).

A few statistics. There where 11 market crashes on Monday since 1987, six of the 11 where bottoms that day and the remaining 5 were bottoms within a few days with minor declines. The weekly volume charts last week hit exhaustion levels. 5 of the 11 crashes had retests.


Below is from Quantifiable Edges.

upload_2020-3-9_12-51-7.png


Most likely this area is the best place for best returns over the next six months.


All the Best,
Tim Ord
Ord Oracle - Home
 
Here's what I see:
--Confirmation of an uptrend in the past few trading days is good news
--Upcoming downtrend confirmation or break is TBD
--Bouncing off 50ma last week as support was good news
--But dropping below this week is potentially bad news
--But if it goes back above 50ma and stays there that's good news
--Support/Demand zone between ~540 and ~580, confirmation is TBD
--This also ~aligns with the likely lower BB if price drops that low, though I don't find BB trading to be especially useful

If it breaks to the upside the first price target is 750 or so, second target is 900.
If it breaks to the downside the first price target is a little over 500 (which aligns with the next major uptrend line), second is maybe 400 or so (which would align with 200ma).

All that said, while I'm all about technicals, its hard to ignore major sociopolitical activity. Given the massive slowdown in global manufacturing and [business] travel, work-from-home mandates in many areas, and generally a wait-and-see approach to getting past CV-19, its hard for me to imagine any kind of major turn in the short term, and certainly not a turn up (if this gets worse, a turn down is definitely on the table). The best we retail traders can hope for IMHO is some kind of stabilization, weather through some shitty quarterlies, and maybe enter some hard to identify but profitable small recoveries and drops smattered about.

upload_2020-3-11_9-13-33.png
 
  • Informative
Reactions: willow_hiller
I don't know if it has any real meaning, but i feel that as long as we stay in the channel of the reasonable growth we saw before the bullish madness, things keeps being healthy and growing..

View attachment 521279
Tesla's natural growth isn't linear, so that's not a rational expectation. This is more a function of rampant fear and people needing to "book a win while they can".

I mean....longs on this forum are selling for god's sake! If that's not the apocalypse, I don't know what is. Lol

Shorts are having a day. They've had days like this in the past they'll likely have more. Doesn't mean we're not snapping back to $800+ once CV is gone.
 
Tesla's natural growth isn't linear, so that's not a rational expectation. This is more a function of rampant fear and people needing to "book a win while they can".

I mean....longs on this forum are selling for god's sake! If that's not the apocalypse, I don't know what is. Lol

Of course Tesla growth is not linear, but have cycles.
The total trend of Tesla growth seems to justify both, the abnormal recent huge rise, and the channel i was talking about, defining a peak for the oncoming cycle. Of course anything different can happen....

Senza titolo2.jpg


And yes, i'm very surprised seeing some few longs of the forum selling...
 
I think its's ridiculous to apply this analysis in the middle of a market meltdown.

I do even think ''analysis'' is a title not deserved.

And if you called it ridiculous as in ''ridiculous as a clown'' (with a touch of funny) we may agree on this.

I do think that even if they have their limits, technical indicators shows one thing in common : heard mentality.

I'm just asking for your guesses on when the heard will get back at buying something else than toilet paper.....

Nothing too serious here ;)
 
Trialing a new methodology for technical analysis based on the options chain. 90% of the theory behind this is untested, so take it with a grain of salt, but something seemed to fundamentally shift in the TSLA options chain overnight.

Here's my model output based on the 200 most traded options from yesterday (with higher state prices meaning more likelihood of that state occurring at expiry):

tsla-03-17.png


And here's the same analysis conducted this morning:

tsla-03-18.png


Could be the reduced time-value of the options consolidating probability on the underlying, but I find it fascinating that yesterday the bulk of the probability was <400. Today it's ever-so-slightly >400 (but still dead set on ~396 as Friday's close).