TSLA Technical Analysis

[ev-enthusiast]

In the meantime, maxpain just climbed to 250 for this week.

As for TSLA, it seems it ran out of steam once it touched above 252...
Let's see if these sales figure give a bit of juice...

TSLA seems to always pay attention to the Fib levels (in case of support as well as in case of resistance).
There is currently a Fib line at about $249.40 where we got some trading around that number during the last days.
While we did not manage to hop over that Fib line we got a little outside of the lower regression channel boundary.
Today's move appeared to follow the downwards movement of the rest of the market on low volume.
A close tomorrow at Max Pain of $250 will bring us again closer to the lower regression channel boundary, but it looks like we will still be a bit outside of the channel.
Some positive news next week (e.g. at Shareholder Meeting June 9th) will help to regain the channel.

Update:
Max Pain still at $250 (link).

 

[austinEV]

Still feels like a triangle wanting to break out. The last little breakout I called didn't confirm and it went on consolidating. Triangle, base, it's some consolidation forming.

 

[ev-enthusiast]

Max Pain for today is now $247.50, let's see if we get some momentum and close a bit above that value.

Update:
Today's close came in at $249.27 close to the HOD at $249.70.

 

[drinkerofkoolaid]

Feels like consolidation that's about to breakout and re-test the 52 week high. Seems to be more nervousness on TMC and too many people still saying battery storage won't add much to Tesla's stock. These same firms claiming to be bearish on Tesla, have been accumulating shares. Dougherty is the only person who has sort of priced in battery storage and just upgraded her price target to $350.

Last week, many were saying the chart looked a lot like a head and shoulders. I'd bet many went short based purely on this. However, the consolidation over the past week technically makes the head and shoulders look more like a base before a breakout. Interesting. Anyone have the figures of shares available to short?

 

[ev-enthusiast]

Last Friday SP closed at at $249.27, a little bit above max pain that was $247.50 for that day, RSI came down a bit to 64.7.
Premarket action is currently looking strong with the Panasonic announcement to speed up investment in Gigafactory and new analyst notes with upped price targets.
Looks like a move up about $6 to hop over the lower regression channel boundary back again into the regression channel is possible.
Additional positive events like EM speech later today and Shareholder Meeting tomorrow could generate positive news that might help to regain the regression channel.
A possible next resistance could be the peak from 2014-11-18 at $260.

 

[chickensevil]

Yeah, if there was any concern over which direction we would be going after the very long consolidation at the 245-250 level I think today will finally show the direction. I wouldn't be surprised to see us make a run up this week to 260 and start testing that level. I was rather surprised at how long we sat at this level, so I hope this isn't a sign of how hard it is going to be to break and hold 260... *yikes*

 

[ev-enthusiast]

Two interesting things come to mind when looking at the current daily chart of TSLA:
- The strong upwards move from yesterday and the close at $256.30 brought us right back into the old ascending regression channel.
- The 50 DMA is about to cross the 200 DMA any day now forming a golden cross, very bullish sign.

One more leg up in the current ascending regression channel would propell us roughly to the $276 area.
There could be some resistance at the $260 level like we have seen with $250 area.
Official news about Model X configuration such as Model X design studio going online and subsequent press coverage could be a strong catalyst this June and could provide enough power for one more leg up in the current channel because it would confirm that Model X is on track for first deliveries.

Last ATH at $290.

Max Pain for this Friday currently sitting at $245.

Short interest figures out today afternoon as well.

Does not look like the exactly right time to gamble a bit on the short side

 

[chickensevil]

I'm sure Max Pain will drift upward as the week goes on. I think people were betting on the lower side there because of last week. Even if it doesn't I don't see us getting pulled back down to 245 as that would be a 10$~ drop. It would likely take quite a bit of effort to drag us back down that much at this point especially with very strong support now at the 250 level.

 

[Drax7]

Theoretically , what is max joy point?
Would max joy equal max pain ?

 

[austinEV]

Theoretically , what is max joy point?
Would max joy equal max pain ?

Max Joy doesn't compute... zero for put holders, infinity for longs. I would be pretty maxxed out at $500/share. lets do that this week...

 

[ev-enthusiast]

I'm sure Max Pain will drift upward as the week goes on. I think people were betting on the lower side there because of last week. Even if it doesn't I don't see us getting pulled back down to 245 as that would be a 10$~ drop. It would likely take quite a bit of effort to drag us back down that much at this point especially with very strong support now at the 250 level.

Max Pain up to $250 now (link).

 

[cctv]

Theoretically , what is max joy point?
Would max joy equal max pain ?

Max joy is ... in the eyes of the beholder

For MMs, our max pain is their max joy
For one direction strategy holder, max joy is the farthest point from max pain, which direction? depends on your position
For complex strategy holder...why you make it so complicated? Don't you know simple is beautiful and probably the most efficient way?

 

[austinEV]

Wow, it made it back to the 20day MA like a rubber band.

 

[ev-enthusiast]

Max Pain currently sitting at $235 (link).

With this sideways trading it looks like it is getting more and more difficult to regain the regression channel.

 

[Bgarret]

Max Pain currently sitting at $235 (link).

What would make it drop from $250 to $235 in a week with the stock going sideways?

 

[The Blue Owl]

What would make it drop from $250 to $235 in a week with the stock going sideways?

Macro would do it (a.k.a. Greece).

 

[MikeC]

What would make it drop from $250 to $235 in a week with the stock going sideways?

Is it because this is a quarterly expiration date? So people are holding options that they bought when the stock was lower, as compared to weeklies?

 

[sahanim]

testing 262. been a resistance according to fib levels in my books.

 

[FluxCap]

OK chartists. What's the play here?

 

[austinEV]

OK chartists. What's the play here?

It closed above the Bollinger band, which is rare as heck. So, it will probably go down tomorrow... unless it doesn't. If it "confirms" tomorrow by heading up again that would signal a good old fashioned break-out and the sky's the limit (resistance at ATH would be the talk). We have had weeks of consolidation in a narrow range (with one "false" breakout), so it was wanting to break high or low. So, it is breaking out for the ATH or this is another false breakout and we will go back to rangebound.

TL;DR: The stock will go up, down or stay the same. You should be long or short accordingly