TSLA Technical Analysis

[InTheShadows]

I was a little bit chickened out to buy more ~182 this morning (be prepared for the worst case <180). Anyway, I'm glad with my buying last Friday and the short term bottom call.

Thank you for sharing Maoing, your insight is a tremendous benefit to everyone here. You have an excellent track record.

 

[maoing]

TA updates as of today.
1) Elon does pay attention for SP and he doesn't want SP to break $180, so that's kind of bottomline unless sth. fundamentally wrong;
2) With double needles on Friday and Monday, it 90% confirms the short term (all the way to 04/30) bottom;
3) Volume is 10M today, this is the highest volume since Q3 ER, so a lot of buyers rushed in to buy under $190 today;
4) next resistance would be the down trend line which is around $203 as of today.

My speculation. SP could break down trend line briefly for this week's rally, then setback and break down trend line with volume before 04/30.

 

[maoing]

My prediction on Monday still holds. Short term tops around $202 early next week from TA analysis. It's arguable if today's announcement can bring SP break 7 months long downwards trendline. My gut feeling is NO, I hope I'm wrong.

TA updates as of today.
1) Elon does pay attention for SP and he doesn't want SP to break $180, so that's kind of bottomline unless sth. fundamentally wrong;
2) With double needles on Friday and Monday, it 90% confirms the short term (all the way to 04/30) bottom;
3) Volume is 10M today, this is the highest volume since Q3 ER, so a lot of buyers rushed in to buy under $190 today;
4) next resistance would be the down trend line which is around $203 as of today.

My speculation. SP could break down trend line briefly for this week's rally, then setback and break down trend line with volume before 04/30.

 

[ev-enthusiast]

Here is a daily chart from last year, Jerome Guillen preannounced a delivery beat for Q4 2014 during the Detroit Auto Show on 2014-01-14:

 

[ev-enthusiast]

It would be sooo great if we only could close solidly above the 50DMA today!

 

[Robert.Boston]

It would be sooo great if we only could close solidly above the 50DMA today!

Pre-market is looking very positive, up about $6. Sure would be nice if that held during the day, instead of trailing off after mid-morning.

 

[ev-enthusiast]

Pre-market is looking very positive, up about $6. Sure would be nice if that held during the day, instead of trailing off after mid-morning.

SP is above the 50DMA that is currently at about $201.9.
Looks like we are just at the top of the upper channel, let's see what today will bring, maybe a herd of unicorns running north

Update:
This blog post about Model S 70D and other recent product improvements is different compared to the last announcement and call of Elon Musk on "Ending Range Anxiety":
- Last time there was a tweet in advance to the call on "Ending Range Anxiety" revealing product updates.
The resulting SP movement was a nice run up into the call, followed by some profit taking right after the call ("sell the news").
- This time the new information on product improvements was simply posted on the TM homepage.
There has not been a run up because of expectations on possible product updates.
As to my opinion the new information on Model S 70D and other product updates (let alone new paint shop now up and runnging!) is not factored in to current SP.
I think a breakout of the current channel is possible and I am curiously watching the $210 and $220 areas as well as the 50DMA.
Please keep in mind 30/04 event coming as well.

 

[ev-enthusiast]

Closed today above 50DMA with a SP at $210.07.
Right above upper channel border.
Looks like there is some strength here.
Let's see what this weeks close will bring.

 

[ZenMan]

I show 50DMA at $201.95

Definitely looks like we are out of the down channel. However RSI is at 62. May continue to go higher, but it is at a level that in the past indicated a pull back.

 

[Room_A113]

My speculation. SP could break down trend line briefly for this week's rally, then setback and break down trend line with volume before 04/30.

View attachment 76432

maoing, it looks like your 3/30 prediction is pretty accurate, except we haven't had any setback yet. What's your latest prediction? I posted my dream channel on the short term price thread, and thought I would share it hear. (Yeah, there's no way we stay in that channel, but one can always dream, right?)

 

[ZenMan]

Closed today over the 100 SMA. Closing price $210.90. 100 day SMA $210.72

 

[maoing]

The price action in the last week is much stronger than most folks thought including myself. Still bullish all the way to ER, might see big pop post ER due to huge earning beat. But near term, the pull back pressure becomes more and more realistic.

maoing, it looks like your 3/30 prediction is pretty accurate, except we haven't had any setback yet. What's your latest prediction? I posted my dream channel on the short term price thread, and thought I would share it hear. (Yeah, there's no way we stay in that channel, but one can always dream, right?)

View attachment 77548

 

[tgp1019]

Second Opinion Weekly Quick Chart Symbol Lookup

Second Opinion[SUP]®[/SUP] Weekly - TESLA MOTORS (TSLA) Exchange: NMS

Close as of week ending 4/10/2015

Opinion

LONG

Date Opinion Formed

04/13/15

Price Opinion Formed

210.90

Score

0

C-Rate

0.0

UPGRADED

New! Try MarketEdge Daily Plus FREE for 2 weeks.

Please go to My Profile (under Home) and click "Subscriptions".

Recommendation

Stock is a Buy.

Comment

Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD) indicates a Bullish Trend.

Chart pattern indicates a Weak Upward Trend.

Relative Strength is Neutral.

Up/Down volume pattern indicates that the stock is under Accumulation.

The 50 day Moving Average is rising which is Bullish.

The 200 day Moving Average is falling which is Bearish.

Watch for resistance at 220.56

Week's Activity (Close as of week ending 4/10/2015)

	Week Close		210.90		Week Change		19.90
	Week Open		197.97		Week High		211.65		Week Low		197.50

Price Analysis

	Yr. High		291.42
	Yr. Low		177.22
	MO Chg.(%)		10.4
	Resistance		220.56
	Support		0.00
	SELL STOP		180.90
	Volatility(%)		2.9
	Position		98
	ADXR		19

Technical Analysis

	Alpha		-0.03		50-Day R.S.		0.98		OBOS		-2
	Beta		1.50		STO(Slow %K)		92		B.BANDS		13
	MACD ST		BL		STO(Fast %K)		95		RSV		41
	MACD LT		BL		Wilder's RSI		91		POWER RATING		80

 

[Johan]

You pasting this HTML in here made my webpage look strange. The reply feild was embedded in your post.

 

[maoing]

TSLA did pull back on Monday and Tuesday. Hope to load more around 50MA which is 202 now in 2nd half of this week.

The price action in the last week is much stronger than most folks thought including myself. Still bullish all the way to ER, might see big pop post ER due to huge earning beat. But near term, the pull back pressure becomes more and more realistic.

 

[ev-enthusiast]

We have been dancing around the upper regression channel border during the last couple of days.
My guess was that given the recent short term news on new Model S 70D, new paint shop up and running in combination with medium term events stationary storage annoucement, Q1ER (with delivery beat) we would leave the down trend visualized by the falling regression channel.
BTW I expect some news about Model X as well during the next days/weeks.
Let's see what the next days will bring.
Here is the regression channel with the upper border currently at about $210.50:

 

[jhm]

I'd be curious to hear what are technical analysts see in the charts for SCTY.

 

[maoing]

TA wise is very strong. Next resistance is around $226, the 200MA. Q1 ER is a setup not to beat delivery but also EPS, so be prepared for a big pop post-ER to overtake 200MA completely.

TSLA did pull back on Monday and Tuesday. Hope to load more around 50MA which is 202 now in 2nd half of this week.

 

[tgp1019]

 

[Johan]

So what do the technicals point to if we squeeze past $240 today??? ATH before 30th?