A very interesting action today - TSLA seem to defy the odds and fought its way up after gaping down on a bipolar ER with a quarterly miss but good guidance. What is especially interesting that today's action seem to confirm that resistance line of the wedge that we broke out of 9 day ago served as a resistance. Looks like we are heading toward closing the gap tomorrow.
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TSLA Technical Analysis
- Thread starter Robert.Boston
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Causalien
Prime 8 ball Oracle
Johan
Ex got M3 in the divorce, waiting for EU Model Y!
From pre-market so far we might be looking at a gap-up open, but it's still very early and low volume. I too think the gap up to $210-212 will be closed today already. From there is a mystery I guess, but I like your new red channel
This is semi on-topic, but is there a thing I can use to check the ticker semi-real time on a PC without having a browser going? I will typically use stockcharts and just hide everything but the top, but that is clumsy at best. Is tehre something that will put something in the PC dock or use a tab? I just want to see the price with something lightweight.
From pre-market so far we might be looking at a gap-up open, but it's still very early and low volume. I too think the gap up to $210-212 will be closed today already. From there is a mystery I guess, but I like your new red channel
I'm thinking gap up after this holiday weekend. Model X sightings are happening. There is time to digest the news and Elon's accomplishments with multiple companies. He learns lessons fast and makes corrections quickly. Analysts have a lot to ponder. This is where we will see if they are worth their salt and whether the fearful tentative Wall Street can appreciate the real West Coast pioneers and innovators. Boeing, Microsoft, Apple and all the rest came from the very same teams.
I agree that Tuesday has potential to be a nice up day. Besides three day weekend and good news to ponder during the weekend, we also saw an upturn right before closing, which is also a good sign.
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Updating the chart, it appears that TSLA is settling into an upward moving (regression) channel, with the next resistance level of 228.5 from Dec 26. Looks like we are going to test it next week.
There are two other observations:
1) 20MA is going to cross 50MA tomorrw, short term bullish signal;
2) Inverted header&shoulder, plus higher low for the post ER dip, hint a higher high is possible;
I expect this runup might temporarily overtake 200MA to ~230 in next two weeks. Once higher low and higher high pattern confirmed, it's important to signify the worst has passed and it's safer to buy calls and LEAPs in following consolidation.
My gut feeling is TSLA won't break 200MA resistance for this runup, but after consolidation, it'll make a good setup to break 200MA around Q1 ER.
1) 20MA is going to cross 50MA tomorrw, short term bullish signal;
2) Inverted header&shoulder, plus higher low for the post ER dip, hint a higher high is possible;
I expect this runup might temporarily overtake 200MA to ~230 in next two weeks. Once higher low and higher high pattern confirmed, it's important to signify the worst has passed and it's safer to buy calls and LEAPs in following consolidation.
My gut feeling is TSLA won't break 200MA resistance for this runup, but after consolidation, it'll make a good setup to break 200MA around Q1 ER.
chickensevil
Active Member
Couple thoughts would be that we are still almost 3 months from Q1 ER.
TSLA does not trade sideways for very long (like generally one week is the most sideways trading we do - Sideways for TSLA is defined at +/- 5$ and closing price is generally +/- 3$)
So I really don't see us floating sideways for what is essentially 3 months. Or at a minimum we hit the 225-230 level within around 30 days and then trade sideways for 2 months. This just isn't likely to happen. We will either break the 200MA or we are going to retreat back to 210-215 (or lower). Consolidation is what I would consider that sideways trading... and we just aren't going to see that take 2 months or more. A 30$ move for TSLA is not enough to warrant dramatic change in your viewpoint that we do major consolidation (going from 200 to 230) especially when we have been in the mid 220s 3 times in the last 3 months. This is almost normal trading range right now for the stock (bouncing between 200 - 230) so *real* consolidation, where people would seriously sell off their holdings to take profits, wouldn't happen until we break out of this trading range. Everything in between is the super-short term day trade range... ie standard daily volume.
So all this is to defend that I think we will either see us break the resistance within the next 15-45 days or we fall back down to 200 and retest the major support. Which is well *before* Q1 results.
I think that we will test $228.50 resistance and the 200 day SMA next week, and then roll-back somewhere within the channel I included on my chart.
I hold March 20 $205 calls which I plan to use as a first leg of a spread - will try to form "free" time delayed bull spread. Will be happy with $205-$220, but $205-215 will do otherwise. I hope to reload with capital returned by selling the upper leg after TSLA rolls back after initial hit on $228.5 resistance.
The reason I don't think we can "effectively" break 200MA any time soon is from the chart of AMZN and NFLX. Both of them are under 200MA for a while until Q4 ER, both popped up above 200MA due to ER beat and approaching ATH now. So I do think we need a big event to overcome this resistance, it's either Q1 ER beat or X reveal. But I could be wrong, personally I can adjust my trading strategy pretty quick, so it's not an issue I take skeptism at this point.
Frankly speaking I don't see any major catalysts in near term to move TSLA in big way, like 70 to 100+ points rally. 30-40 points runup are likely and historially TSLA does this many times even without reasons. Personally I'll sell my trading positions between 229-230 which is no far away. I might also change my mind because the Nasdaq is very bullish and who knows what'll happen next week. But I do have a plan in place.
Actually my best hope is the TSLA will fall back to 200 or even below 200 temporarily after hitting 230. It's a pretty nice swing and I believe TSLA shorts have many bullets to shoot the stock down, like high short interests still, bad Q4 ER, soft Q1 guidance, west coast port strike, EPS estimates plunge, unclear China demand etc. Together the geneneral market might face a correction in March/April after all indices hit ATH (including Nasdaq surpass 2000 high).
In 1st half of 2015, as many folks pointed out, that no major catalysts can make big movement for TSLA. So range trading is a reasonable expection at this point and that's my default idea now. Again, my plan can change at any given time.
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Another thing I observed is 50MA starts to flat from today, today's 50MA actually is a little bit higher than yesterday. Together 20MA cross 50MA, it's a good sign to see TSLA stop the downtrend momentum, but it's also hard to get uptrend momemtum right away. So my prediction from technical perspective is the 50MA will keep roughly flat for a while then gradually moving up to prepare golden cross with 200MA again. Because 50MA will stay flat for a while, then the up and down around 50MA (209 now) is likely to be seen in next months or so.
Frankly speaking I don't see any major catalysts in near term to move TSLA in big way, like 70 to 100+ points rally. 30-40 points runup are likely and historially TSLA does this many times even without reasons. Personally I'll sell my trading positions between 229-230 which is no far away. I might also change my mind because the Nasdaq is very bullish and who knows what'll happen next week. But I do have a plan in place.
Actually my best hope is the TSLA will fall back to 200 or even below 200 temporarily after hitting 230. It's a pretty nice swing and I believe TSLA shorts have many bullets to shoot the stock down, like high short interests still, bad Q4 ER, soft Q1 guidance, west coast port strike, EPS estimates plunge, unclear China demand etc. Together the geneneral market might face a correction in March/April after all indices hit ATH (including Nasdaq surpass 2000 high).
In 1st half of 2015, as many folks pointed out, that no major catalysts can make big movement for TSLA. So range trading is a reasonable expection at this point and that's my default idea now. Again, my plan can change at any given time.
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Another thing I observed is 50MA starts to flat from today, today's 50MA actually is a little bit higher than yesterday. Together 20MA cross 50MA, it's a good sign to see TSLA stop the downtrend momentum, but it's also hard to get uptrend momemtum right away. So my prediction from technical perspective is the 50MA will keep roughly flat for a while then gradually moving up to prepare golden cross with 200MA again. Because 50MA will stay flat for a while, then the up and down around 50MA (209 now) is likely to be seen in next months or so.
chickensevil
Active Member
That's a fair thought and I wouldn't be surprised for either a pop above or drop back down. I plan to sell off what I have when we hit the 220s and setup for a swing in either direction. Since I could see a bullish Nasdaq driving us up by itself. Keep in mind that outside of real news we tend to track with the Nasdaq.
ev-enthusiast
Active Member
I am currently watching if TSLA is able to make higher lows during the next days.
Comparing to $185.00 at 2015-1-14 and $193.28 at 2015-02-12 the day after Q4 ER.
The last two days brought TSLA under 50 DMA (currently sitting at about $209.5).
Just like BOA report from Lovallo put negative preassure on the stock,
Consumer Reports over all Top Pick of the year 2015 for Tesla Model S should provide some positive momentum during the next days.
Comparing to $185.00 at 2015-1-14 and $193.28 at 2015-02-12 the day after Q4 ER.
The last two days brought TSLA under 50 DMA (currently sitting at about $209.5).
Just like BOA report from Lovallo put negative preassure on the stock,
Consumer Reports over all Top Pick of the year 2015 for Tesla Model S should provide some positive momentum during the next days.
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chickensevil
Active Member
Well here we are again, essentially trading sideways off the Monday close, two days now flat, how long will it take for a deviation? The longer we hold sideways the bigger the breakout seems to be. I'm anticipating it will be a move up to the positive at least back into the 210+ range. But we shall see.
Here is the update of my TA analysis, FYI. We did see higher low post ER but didn't see higher high as expected. Instead the high was suppressed by downwards trendline again, so we should be cautious for the upside room before next major catalyst. For the downside, inverted H&S pattern still holds, uptrend support line linking 185 to 193 still holds. So my guess, TSLA will trade between downards trendline and uptrend support line in next a few weeks.
Here is another view on current chart - from the point of view of regression, not trend channeling. I think that we are following the upwards regression channel after breakout from the wedge.
To give update on a trade that I shared in previous post, after buying March 20 $205 calls on February 13th (second day after breaking from the wedge), I sold the upper leg of the spread - March 20 $215 calls last Friday, returning the capital used to buy the $205 calls. So I am now holding the "free" March 20 $205-215 spread, with potential gain of $10 per each call if TSLA closes above $215 on March 20. Alternatively, I can choose to close this spread before the expiration, currently it is worth about $3.68 per call.
Based on my belief that we are going to follow the regression channel shown on my chart, today I used capital that was freed up last Friday to buy March 27, $205 calls. My plan is to form another cost free time delayed spread as we move up in the next week or so.
To give update on a trade that I shared in previous post, after buying March 20 $205 calls on February 13th (second day after breaking from the wedge), I sold the upper leg of the spread - March 20 $215 calls last Friday, returning the capital used to buy the $205 calls. So I am now holding the "free" March 20 $205-215 spread, with potential gain of $10 per each call if TSLA closes above $215 on March 20. Alternatively, I can choose to close this spread before the expiration, currently it is worth about $3.68 per call.
Based on my belief that we are going to follow the regression channel shown on my chart, today I used capital that was freed up last Friday to buy March 27, $205 calls. My plan is to form another cost free time delayed spread as we move up in the next week or so.
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What if in your graph we'd consider the drop due to ER, that was quickly recovered, just as glitch and as such, we'd "inconveniently" not take it into account to draw your regression channel? The regression channel would not exist and we'd still be in the downward trend with the next low lower than the previous one, heading to the 170's?
Just a depressing thought looking at today's price action...
ev-enthusiast
Active Member
To my opinion it looks like TSLA trying to build a new upwards channel since mid of January (uncertainity on China and delivery issues):
The $200 area provided some solid report even during some bad news lately (BoA Report with litle to none new facts).
With some good news in the wings like new service agreement, stationary storage, Model X beta leaks, Model X crash test results, Model X winning some awards, Model 3 alpha reveal and GigaFactory ahead of schedule I think we could soon enter a new news cycle of positive news and SP could move along the new upward trend channel.
Personally I bought some $190 calls on 2015-02-13 on the knee jerk dip after ER hoping for a bouce.
To my opinion the delivery miss in Q4 was in part because of third party issues with transport of new vehicles via west coast ports and there are some vehicles in Freemont that are already build and just need to be delivered (positive for the future).
Sold half my position on 2015-02-20 for a good gain (almost 50% for half my position)
Got greedy and held the other half too long
Still holding the second half of that position.
So personally I am hoping for further recovery during the next days
What do the more experienced investors think about trend for the next days/weeks?
chickensevil
Active Member
To my opinion it looks like TSLA trying to build a new upwards channel since mid of January (uncertainity on China and delivery issues):
View attachment 74065
The $200 area provided some solid report even during some bad news lately (BoA Report with litle to none new facts).
With some good news in the wings like new service agreement, stationary storage, Model X beta leaks, Model X crash test results, Model X winning some awards, Model 3 alpha reveal and GigaFactory ahead of schedule I think we could soon enter a new news cycle of positive news and SP could move along the new upward trend channel.
Personally I bought some $190 calls on 2015-02-13 on the knee jerk dip after ER hoping for a bouce.
To my opinion the delivery miss in Q4 was in part because of third party issues with transport of new vehicles via west coast ports and there are some vehicles in Freemont that are already build and just need to be delivered (positive for the future).
Sold half my position on 2015-02-20 for a good gain (almost 50% for half my position)
Got greedy and held the other half too long
Still holding the second half of that position.
So personally I am hoping for further recovery during the next days
What do the more experienced investors think about trend for the next days/weeks?
I guess we all see different things, but to me it looks more like we are starting to form a wedge more than going up or down.
If the wedge continues I anticipate we will see somewhere around 213ish within the next week (around the 11th or 12th), and then we will test if we break the wedge or turn back down again. It looks to me like we only have maybe one more up/down cycle before we will be forced to break the wedge either up or down (meaning we shoot into the 220s or down to the 190s) This is basically sideways trading, and one thing that has always held true for Tesla... it doesn't trade sideways for long.
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Correction, I guess the correct term in this case is actually a triangle (as opposed to a wedge), but either way... it looks like we are moving toward a breakout point.
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