I would not be surprised if the market has a conniption fit in the morning. I'll be watching both oil and NASDAQ, as we usually trade with those two when absent other catalysts. Right now, oil is up and NASDAQ futures are down. If oil goes down significantly, then we could be in for a rough ride as the NASDAQ also goes down.
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TSLA Trading Strategies
- Thread starter Robert.Boston
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Since it seems like my summer plans are quickly turning into moving to a different city and because I like where my portfolio is now I have gone cash heavy. I don't necessarily plan to withdraw the cash from my tax advantaged account but I want to be sure I have it as a backup. I went for putting everything into Jan '18 calls @$400. If I lose that money I will still be ahead of where I would have been had I not invested in Tesla. If these expire worthless I will buy some at a similar price for Jan '20 expiration. If TSLA is not $600+ in January 2020 I figure they will be executing so poorly it will be time to give up on them.
@uselesslogin so to be clear you just have jan 18 400s and the rest in cash? are you preserving cash for a house purchase?
Yes exactly. My psychological need for a cash position is because I like having an emergency fund and the current emergency fund is going to be used to prepare the house for sale and potentially pay for any moving expenses before we get the proceeds from that sale. After the house is sold I should be able to buy a house if we decide to do that and replace the original emergency fund.
January 2018 calls might not be the best strategy. There are a number of less expensive options strategies that basically accomplish the same thing with less risk and greater profit potential. When did you buy the 2018 calls? Leaps were a great idea when Tesla was being ignored, and IV was very low. Currently, this isn't the case.
I have a little bit of stock and a lot of cash going into Q1 ER. I don't have the conviction that it WILL go down due to a dismal ER, but more that it probably should, and I hope that Elon pushes it that way by deferring good news.
I am looking at the Q1 ER to give me the info I need to plan the rest of the year. Even in the most bullish scenario, I see the stock going up a little on Thu, not some rocket to the moon. So if I really need to reassess and get on the train I can do so for a small opportunity cost.
I feel like we have a choice between +4% on Thursday or +40% in August. we will see which way the winds are blowing soon.
[QUOTE="austinEV, post: 1513092, I feel like we have a choice between +4% on Thursday or +40% in August. we will see which way the winds are blowing soon.[/QUOTE]
While I certainly hope that it's up either way, are you anticipating the +40% in august to be from today's price or the $180(worst case) DTU scenario price? Cause $180+40% is pretty much the same as today's price+4%?
While I certainly hope that it's up either way, are you anticipating the +40% in august to be from today's price or the $180(worst case) DTU scenario price? Cause $180+40% is pretty much the same as today's price+4%?
ev-enthusiast
Active Member
Can anybody please explain 'DTU scenario' to a non native english speaker?
Thank's in advance!
Because you can make money on the same movement again, or 3 times. I did well on the way up from 140 to now. If you had confidence (via time travel machine) that it would repeat, you can cash out now, rebuy later this summer, and go back up to 300. Or if you have ice water in your veins, ride puts to a bottom, and calls back up. I am not so confident and plan to wait-and-see through this ER to see how the next trajectory is shaking out.
MitchJi
Trying to learn kindness, patience & forgiveness
Have you looked at $400 J18 calls?
Today they are at bid/ask $8.00/$9.95.
Before you get excited about the cheap price you get what you put for. Almost nothing for time value.
Before you even think about this check them out here:
Long call (bullish) calculator
Results are here:
calculator
Notice the steep curve. If the SP hits $310 by early June 2017 you only make $113 for $900 invested.
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My concern with the 2018 calls is that so much will become clearer by late 2016 - mid 2017. Options more than 6 months out are not heavily traded. However, given the volatility, it might be possible to secure a few at a deep discount, but if you can it's likely a fluke. Also, 2018 calls are not likely to react as much to huge swings in the stock due to the time premium and how lightly traded they are.. Because the 2018 calls are so far out, you might need to wait until the beginning-middle of 2017 to huge moves. Any big moves are likely due to how lightly traded those options are. Remember, for every call or put, someone has to write it. If I was writing 2018 calls, I'd be demanding a huge premium.
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MitchJi
Trying to learn kindness, patience & forgiveness
My concern is that deeply OTM Calls are like lottery tickets. The premiums are calculated based on the Black-Sholes algorithm.
In my case maybe I should have just said I'm on the sidelines. I sold my TSLA position and purchased fear of missing out insurance for a small fraction of the proceeds. I am not saying they are a good deal or anything. I'm far better off with this recent drop despite the 40% decline on the LEAPS. Of course that is because everything else is just cash.
pz1975
Active Member
Taking advantage of the high IV, I just sold 2 May 13 $215 puts for $7.50 each. I would be happy to purchase 200 shares at an equivalent of $207.50 if the SP drops further. Otherwise I pocket the money.
Today I bought a calendar call spread. Selling the May week 1 230's and buying the May (third week) 230's.
The short leg had an IV of about 150% while the long leg has about 67% IV. Mostly delta neutral. Ideally a 300% gain in three days, worst loose my investment. We'll see.
The short leg had an IV of about 150% while the long leg has about 67% IV. Mostly delta neutral. Ideally a 300% gain in three days, worst loose my investment. We'll see.
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