TSLA Trading Strategies

[neroden]

Thank you guys, so liquidity is the only downside. Since I already hold Tesla shares I have the money tied up regardless, so its effectively a freeroll. Thanks again everyone!

There's actually another downside if you hold your stock in an *after-tax* account -- you pay taxes on the accumulated appreciation of your TSLA this year, and reset your holding period to short-term. This is one reason many people wouldn't replace their stock with this "synthetic long" -- many people hold stock outright. But in a tax-deferred account there's no real downside to making the change. I suppose there is one important one: you have to remember to check just before the options expire and make sure you exercise or sell the call if you need to do so.

You also have to have an account authorized for options trading of course.

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I'm actually quite conservative so I've been selling out-of-the-money puts for the last two years (tying up a lot of liquidity, but that's not an issue for me); I've made a lot of money on TSLA while the stock was basically flat. When it dropped to $150 my puts should have been exercised (and I would sure have been happy to buy), but whoever was holding the other side of the puts wasn't on the ball so they weren't exercised. C'est la vie.

 

[neroden]

I've been a straight buy/sell investor with stocks for many years. But, I'd like to learn a bit more about all of these other types mentioned in this thread all the time (i.e. puts, calls, LEAPS, etc.). Can anyone recommend any websites that help clarify these topics and good strategies on when/how to use them?
Thanks in advance!

This is my favorite place to look up what the *words mean*. There's a lot of jargon and this explains all of it.
Options Trading Explained - Free Online Guide to Trading Options

 

[uselesslogin]

So I bought some 4/8 calls with $250 strikes when we were at $235 on Friday. I sold them at the open today. Now I have an order in to buy a smaller number of 4/15 calls with $260 strikes. I think they will execute around $244 or $243 if we get pushed down that far. It is only with the 'house' money I just made on the first trade. We shall see. This is just gambling with smaller amounts of money I can easily lose.

 

[dakh]

Some misses but mostly hits for me recently: sold the other half of my Apr8 220's at a pop today in the morning for a fat 280% gain. I got them when reveal date was known and my thinking was exactly that -- I wanted to have an option to keep for a little after reveal but also was willing to cash in before if price action is good. So sold half when it hit 100% gain, thinking to sell right after reveal at whatever price it's gonna be. After the first reservation number tweet I decided to keep the other half longer since I thought new shorts won't dare to pile up into the momentum and there will be a pop based on short covering from the news. Also I picked up some 200 Apr 15'th on Friday after reveal betting on the short covering action and pretty cheap time value. Sold half of that this week thinking we'll get a slight pop after new deposit number is out. Looks like that was the only wrong move in the whole game.

I guess it's easy to feel like a trading hero when the stock just keeps going up regardless of what you do huh?

 

[Electrifying]

For those who trade options, the past week feels like 2013 when daily swings of 7% on 10+ million shares are dizzyingly common. What do you think the best strategy is if this pattern continues? I have both near the money short term calls and puts (mostly calls April 22 , May and June) and long term call spreads (September) .

 

[neroden]

I sold loads of deep-out-of-the-money June puts immediately before the reveal. Normally I just leave my puts until expiration, but the put price crashed so fast after the reveal that I decided to take profits and roll them out to later dates.

 

[emupilot]

For those who trade options, the past week feels like 2013 when daily swings of 7% on 10+ million shares are dizzyingly common. What do you think the best strategy is if this pattern continues? I have both near the money short term calls and puts (mostly calls April 22 , May and June) and long term call spreads (September) .

I have had good success playing the bigger swings by accumulating medium to long term calls on the way down and selling when it gets back up again. I'm up 50% with my TSLA portfolio since last June 1st (when TSLA was also at roughly 250). I sold a little earlier this week at 265 and will buy some if it gets down to 240. The earliest expiration for my calls is January 2017, so if it tanks again (like it did starting January 1st) I can ride it out. This is for a tax-deferred account - I probably would not attempt this with a taxable account.

 

[jeewee3000]

Placed a little bet that the stock will jump next week. Expecting either good news from TSLA/Elon or just a positive response to the Vice HBO special on energy after market close tonight.

 

[austinEV]

Placed a little bet that the stock will jump next week. Expecting either good news from TSLA/Elon or just a positive response to the Vice HBO special on energy after market close tonight.

Yeah me too, just a little trading stab to close by next Friday.

 

[BornToFly]

Above or below 280-290 range after Q1 earnings? Based on my own Model X delay, and that of many others on the forum, I think production has slowed below 750/week to improve quality. I think that will come out in the call and hurt the stock temporarily. Potential upside could come from Model 3 capital raise announcement, new factory planning, or moving up Model 3 deliveries by 3-6 months. Personally I'm writing calls with the thought that we won't hit 290 in the next two weeks, and that positive announcements will come later....

 

[AlMc]

@rdalcanto: You will make $, IMO by writing those $290 calls. I am constructing two strangles, one May and one June for a big move either way post Q1ER/CC.

I think the poor financials that I expect in Q1 ER may be priced in already as the market already can do some math on the slight miss on deliveries. What I don't know is what will be revealed on the CC. IF, production has slowed in Q2 for the X, and now *rumored* with the S due to some retooling and this results in some lowered guidance for Q2, I expect a dip. $220 (nom way we see ATH)

While I have NO way of knowing there is the potential for a positive *surprise*
First, the financials will be greatly affected in a positive way if Wheeler has cost contained by limiting Supercharger and Service Center expansion....and decides to sell ZEV credits.
Second, if the CC indicates that they have raised a ton of money to meet the demand for the 3 with a quicker ramp or larger production capability of both batteries and cars....then explosion to the upside. Couple that with any indication of a European or Asian partnership..bam. ( your 280-290 numbers may be possible)

but who knows....and hence my 'strangles'.

I do have some calls for this coming week. Beijing auto show..delivers of X to first Chinese customers...

 

[ggr]

Based on the battery price discussion in the short term thread, and the fact that yahoo finance has no articles mentioning it, I just bought a couple of weekly calls $262.50 for $1.26. As is my practice with these kinds of trades, I have already queued a sell order for half of them at $2.52, which will zero out my cost if that triggers. We will see if the news hits the market, and if it moves the price positively.

 

[Johan]

Based on my reading of those same news, and the lack of market/media recognition, and the slight dip early in the day I got $260 weeklies and June $300 calls. Seeing we're up now $6 since then the weeklies are up 40% already and the June calls 15%. Now you may say my feeling will be clouded from being invested with this short-term thesis already, but volume is still low and the NASDAQ is flat. I think this might take off a bit later today or tomorrow. Stops are set to lock profits in place, of course. Did anyone else place trades with short-term outlook based on this morning's news?

 

[AlMc]

Johan....I added 20 April 29 260s....a little later than you so up less than yours 25%...but there is tomorrow

Of course tomorrow could bring an Apple/Yellen induced downturn...,

We shall see

 

[Jonathan Hewitt]

I added some calls based on the Tesla Energy website update with new pricing last week. I think I will use this current increase in price today to get out of them if they get above water again...If that didn't gain any attention I don't know if this news from today will either (at least this week).

 

[MitchJi]

My current strategy is to hold my J18 $161 leaps and when I think a rise is imminent increase my leverage by rolling them to something like $240's.

I'm planning to either keep my September $230's and $240's for a while or sell them right before the ER-CC and roll them immediately after to J17's. The plan would be that the IV decline would be enough more than any SP increase to pay for most of the difference.

 

[hoang51]

Of course tomorrow could bring an Apple/Yellen induced downturn...,

We shall see

Apple taking a 5% discount...
Apple falls after it misses on profit and revenue; plans to raise dividend
1 for 1 now. Now Yellen's turn.

 

[Johan]

Apple taking a 5% discount...
Apple falls after it misses on profit and revenue; plans to raise dividend
1 for 1 now. Now Yellen's turn.

Well for a "contrarian" view that could mean money flowing out of AAPL looking for better growth elsewhere. Hello TSLA.

 

[emupilot]

I'm neutral to bearish on the quarterly report next week. I've sold some Jan 2017 calls to buy shares and sold a couple short-term covered calls to take advantage of the drop in IV after the report. I still have some Jan 2017s so I am still long-term bullish but I am being very cautious in the short-term.

 

[hoang51]

Well for a "contrarian" view that could mean money flowing out of AAPL looking for better growth elsewhere. Hello TSLA.

True, only if the stock market only consists of AAPL and TSLA.