Unsold Model 3 sitting in lot awaiting buyers?

[ricohman]

Valid point...

But just playing devil's advocate here, but could many of the "leftover 250K reservationists" that have not yet purchased, be overseas reservations that are just now receiving cars?

Perhaps they are at the point when they can build them to order? And if you are not fussy you can buy out of current inventory?
When I custom ordered my F450 it took 6 weeks to delivery. If Tesla now has the capacity to do that it is completely acceptable to me and no different from any other brand.

 

[mattjs33]

They supposedly always did build to order. It was in the last few months they began building to spec and just matching orders to that.

The point being if 200,000 of the 450K reservations have been filled then there would supposedly be 250K reservations to still fulfill. Which seems to not be the case, if you can purchase today and pick up next week. I'm merely saying that if any significant amount of that leftover 250K does actually exist, then most of them are perhaps overseas reservationists. Or not?

There's ramifications on real US demand at play here. I don't think Tesla US sales are suddenly going to crater but it's obvious they've worked through the majority of the US reservation list. Seems to me the sales they are getting are in "real time" now, if you know how I mean.

 

[Barklikeadog]

They supposedly always did build to order. It was in the last few months they began building to spec and just matching orders to that.

The point being if 200,000 of the 450K reservations have been filled then there would supposedly be 250K reservations to still fulfill. Which seems to not be the case, if you can purchase today and pick up next week. I'm merely saying that if any significant amount of that leftover 250K does actually exist, then most of them are perhaps overseas reservationists. Or not?

There's ramifications on real US demand at play here. I don't think Tesla US sales are suddenly going to crater but it's obvious they've worked through the majority of the US reservation list. Seems to me the sales they are getting are in "real time" now, if you know how I mean.

A big part of the January layoffs were delivery specialists in the states. Those people were burning the candle at both ends to deliver 5k per week, and now they are laid off.
Question is, would you lay off that many people if you knew there were 200,000 reservation holders eagerly awaiting the $35,000 model coming out? Does it make any
sense to put yourself back into a 'delivery hell' situation in the states? It doesn't seem right. Their actions seem to say that the US deposits for $35k are substantially smaller
than assumed. Elon says that demand is fantastic, but you can order a car and get it next week. What is right and what is wrong? The plan was to be churning out 10k
per week in 18/19. There obviously isn't a 10k per week demand if they are producing 5k and have a large inventory to choose from. It's too bad they aren't private and have
to deal with this stuff, but just be honest and let shareholders know what is going on.

 

[ricohman]

A big part of the January layoffs were delivery specialists in the states. Those people were burning the candle at both ends to deliver 5k per week, and now they are laid off.
Question is, would you lay off that many people if you knew there were 200,000 reservation holders eagerly awaiting the $35,000 model coming out? Does it make any
sense to put yourself back into a 'delivery hell' situation in the states? It doesn't seem right. Their actions seem to say that the US deposits for $35k are substantially smaller
than assumed. Elon says that demand is fantastic, but you can order a car and get it next week. What is right and what is wrong? The plan was to be churning out 10k
per week in 18/19. There obviously isn't a 10k per week demand if they are producing 5k and have a large inventory to choose from. It's too bad they aren't private and have
to deal with this stuff, but just be honest and let shareholders know what is going on.

Let’s use myself as an example. It is ideal for a customer to decide on a car, pay for it and receive it in a month. My custom ordered F450 King Ranch took about 5 or 6 weeks and that is about the norm for a factory order.
If Tesla has the staff to deliver 5000-7000 a month that should be enough to keep everything running and provide profit. I’m not the 35000 dollar buyer but if Tesla can’t get to that point then the real trouble will begin as they will run out of orders.

 

[Knightshade]

They supposedly always did build to order. It was in the last few months they began building to spec and just matching orders to that.

The point being if 200,000 of the 450K reservations have been filled then there would supposedly be 250K reservations to still fulfill. Which seems to not be the case, if you can purchase today and pick up next week. I'm merely saying that if any significant amount of that leftover 250K does actually exist, then most of them are perhaps overseas reservationists. Or not?

A significant chunk are likely overseas (and those ok with LR or MR will be having demand filled now and over the next quarter or two)

Nearly all the rest both in the US and overseas would be folks waiting on the SR version.

We don't know the breakdown between those though.


I expect one reason they got rid of a lot of delivery people is they were horrible at their jobs, and since it's still likely 6 months before SR shows up why keep horrible employees on staff for 6 months with little to do? Fire em, and hire people less terrible at the job later when you actually need em.

 

[ReddyLeaf]

interesting, I see the new critical articles out there about the 'demand cliff'
If there were 250,000 people still on a wait list and demand is >>> supply, how is it I can order any variation and get it next week?
Either the 35k people are reeaallly stubborn and patient, or they don't exist in the numbers that are assumed.

Well, I still have my deposit with Tesla. I I suppose that it’s time to request a refund, but why bother when interest rates are so low. had the chance to order a year ago, but decided just to defer and let it ride, as insurance if my S70D got in an accident.

 

[Barklikeadog]

Well, I still have my deposit with Tesla. I I suppose that it’s time to request a refund, but why bother when interest rates are so low. had the chance to order a year ago, but decided just to defer and let it ride, as insurance if my S70D got in an accident.

That kinda sucks to wait like this. You are by choice, others really want that 35k car. I always thought how ridiculous it was for people to camp out for a week to buy the
new Iphone... and a day later anyone could wander in off the street and buy one without hassle. Ive always had the impression that there is a long list of $35k line waiters,
but I'm changing my mind, I don't think they exist as we were led to believe. How can anyone claim 'insane demand' if you have inventory vehicles waiting for a buyer?

 

[DavidP]

I assume that a good amount of people in the US was hoping for a 35k car minus the 7.5k credit. Those people will pass their turn for a Tesla.

 

[Knightshade]

Ive always had the impression that there is a long list of $35k line waiters,
but I'm changing my mind, I don't think they exist as we were led to believe. How can anyone claim 'insane demand' if you have inventory vehicles waiting for a buyer?

Pretty easily.

It was explained on the Q4 call in fact- there's still an insane demand for the cheaper version of the car. Said demand to be filled once Tesla is able to profitably produce that version.

Pent-up back demand (in the US) for the more expensive models has largely been filled- so they're now shipping most of production overseas since NO demand has been filled over there....

With the idea that the remaining production and stuff already in inventory here will cover ongoing demand in the US while that's happening.... and that ideally by the time high-end demand is tapering down overseas they'll finally be ready to launch the SR version of the car and get a whole new wave of pent up demand to fill.

And lastly that once it's available in all versions, in all markets, ongoing demand across the model will be something on the order of 7-10k a week.

 

[Erpel]

Pretty easily.

It was explained on the Q4 call in fact- there's still an insane demand for the cheaper version of the car. Said demand to be filled once Tesla is able to profitably produce that version.

Pent-up back demand (in the US) for the more expensive models has largely been filled- so they're now shipping most of production overseas since NO demand has been filled over there....

With the idea that the remaining production and stuff already in inventory here will cover ongoing demand in the US while that's happening.... and that ideally by the time high-end demand is tapering down overseas they'll finally be ready to launch the SR version of the car and get a whole new wave of pent up demand to fill.

And lastly that once it's available in all versions, in all markets, ongoing demand across the model will be something on the order of 7-10k a week.

Well said, fully agree.

 

[gilscales]

Yes it is, unfortunately our M3 got totaled. We went to Tysons and made the request for the features and we got one.

It takes longer to do the paperwork Tesla's way, that drug out for days but we now have the car. Back when we waited years for the car the paperwork was a non factor. Buying one off the lot, that paper process gummed up the works. We weren't in a rush so it was not that big of a deal.

Stock car, off the lot. 4 miles, not a demo unit.
View attachment 375149

White on White looks Sweeeeeet!

 

[gilscales]

If you figure out how to drive an EV from Calgary to eastern Saskatchewan 900 kms with no charging stations at -40 please enlighten me.

its simple really, you just have an HD diesel pickup following you while towing this

You can even fit a Supercharger in the tongue area with it wired into the generator, easy, peasy!

 

[Barklikeadog]

Pretty easily.

It was explained on the Q4 call in fact- there's still an insane demand for the cheaper version of the car. Said demand to be filled once Tesla is able to profitably produce that version.

Pent-up back demand (in the US) for the more expensive models has largely been filled- so they're now shipping most of production overseas since NO demand has been filled over there....

With the idea that the remaining production and stuff already in inventory here will cover ongoing demand in the US while that's happening.... and that ideally by the time high-end demand is tapering down overseas they'll finally be ready to launch the SR version of the car and get a whole new wave of pent up demand to fill.

And lastly that once it's available in all versions, in all markets, ongoing demand across the model will be something on the order of 7-10k a week.

When they have 450k reservations, they brag that they have 450k reservations. How many more reservations do you have?a nice fat number will please wall street and energize the stock price. Answer: we don't want to divulge that.. demand is insane. When Apple sold 70m devices in a quarter they proudly said so. Suddenly they say they are no longer reporting unit sales numbers. All anyone wants is a number. 50k? 150k? 200k? 100k? Its just weird that with insane demand I can go and order a 42,900 model 3(doing it now) and get a delivery in February. Essentially in the next 3 days.

 

[PhantomX]

Pretty easily.

It was explained on the Q4 call in fact- there's still an insane demand for the cheaper version of the car. Said demand to be filled once Tesla is able to profitably produce that version.

Pent-up back demand (in the US) for the more expensive models has largely been filled- so they're now shipping most of production overseas since NO demand has been filled over there....

With the idea that the remaining production and stuff already in inventory here will cover ongoing demand in the US while that's happening.... and that ideally by the time high-end demand is tapering down overseas they'll finally be ready to launch the SR version of the car and get a whole new wave of pent up demand to fill.

And lastly that once it's available in all versions, in all markets, ongoing demand across the model will be something on the order of 7-10k a week.

Question though is, how many people of those expecting the SR wanted it with the full Federal tax credit? It's very likely that SR arrives when there is no tax credit at all, so would these people waiting for SR ready to pay the $35k instead of $27.5k (not counting state and local incentives)?

BTW, just to echo other, I am told by the local sales office that they have plenty of selections for me to choose from whenever I am ready.

 

[gilscales]

As someone else here on this thread already posted, what about the out of country reservations? how many of the 450k do we think are not in the U.S.?

Also, I had 2 reservations as I thought for sure we would want 2 of them, just decided later that we could get by with one to save money, I just have to use my work truck now on rare occasions when my wife has the car and I have to run an errand so our model 3 replaced 2 cars for us!.

 

[Barklikeadog]

Question though is, how many people of those expecting the SR wanted it with the full Federal tax credit? It's very likely that SR arrives when there is no tax credit at all, so would these people waiting for SR ready to pay the $35k instead of $27.5k (not counting state and local incentives)?

BTW, just to echo other, I am told by the local sales office that they have plenty of selections for me to choose from whenever I am ready.

i drive past the devon service center quite often... always have a lot full of customer cars, model s, model x, few model 3s... in the last 4 months they are bursting at the seams.
they are jam packed with model 3s. cars are double parked, parked in grass, parked in neighboring gravel lot... I used to see this and think... wow they have a lot of cars
to deliver. pretty obvious now that this is inventory sitting on the lot. does a tesla get lot rot?

 

[Barklikeadog]

As someone else here on this thread already posted, what about the out of country reservations? how many of the 450k do we think are not in the U.S.?

Also, I had 2 reservations as I thought for sure we would want 2 of them, just decided later that we could get by with one to save money, I just have to use my work truck now on rare occasions when my wife has the car and I have to run an errand so our model 3 replaced 2 cars for us!.

would it be so difficult to say at their quarterly report: we have approx 100k orders to fill overseas and another 100k in the states, we believe are waiting for the 35k model.
then say demand is insane. I can't stand when any public company refuses to reveal such things to the owners of their company.

 

[Sunshine State]

I have been saying for a long time the reservation numbers were exaggerated or at least not solid commitments because a huge number of reservations would have been for the $35k version with the intention of getting $7500 back. That huge number of people waiting for the mythical $27,500 Tesla 3 have now disappeared and a great many have moved on to other options. Obviously there was pent-up demand for a cheaper Tesla in the US, that pent up demand has long since be fulfilled. It’s now down to regular demand which is more than exceeded by current production levels, proof in point that you can get cars immediately from inventory, at reduced prices plus inventory discounts. Tesla has begun shipping overseas to meet the European pent up demand which will eventually be fulfilled. Tesla continues to say there is incredible demand to help fuel sales. We have received four calls to come in and test drive a 3, that doesn’t happen if there is incredible demand. Tesla has been reaping the benefits with the 3 of the perfect storm of the strongest auto industry and economy in Teslas history. America loves SUV’s so they better get on the ball and build the Y as soon as they can or they are going to be sitting on too much inventory after European 3 demand is fulfilled.

 

[Knightshade]

When they have 450k reservations, they brag that they have 450k reservations. How many more reservations do you have?a nice fat number will please wall street and energize the stock price.

It won't though, because the SR isn't ready yet.

They stopped reporting reservation #s end of Q2.

At the time they still had ~420k reservations.

The remaining net Model 3 reservations count at the end of Q2 still stood at roughly 420,000 even though we have now delivered 28,386 Model 3 vehicles to date.

Now we know they delivered 145,846 total for 2018- so 117,460 delivered after that 420k number- some weren't reservations though since they stopped taking those in Q3 and let you directly order.... but let's say 3/4 of them were- that's 88,095 reservations filled... leaving 331,905 reservations in the system.

Now- back to your claim that it'd be "good" for them to keep reporting this number... and why that's not the case-

So first we need some idea how many were North America vs rest of the world... historically Tesla sales are about 50/50 US vs everywhere else, so lacking a better number, let's use that.... so 210k were US reservations, and 210k were ROW (rest of world).

So end of 2018 US reservations were down to 121,905.

AND it's probably safe to conclude most of those are waiting on the SR version since they otherwise had the chance to order with the larger credit for existing models, right? (I imagine a few of em are people holding out for air suspension on a more expensive version but that'd be a small minority)


So that number isn't going to move- pretty much at all- until SR is out.

Reporting that looks bad for Tesla as it highlights how the SR has been delayed.

That doesn't mean nobody in NA wants a model 3 anymore- they are still selling the things, just not in "flood of pent up demand" numbers since the more expensive models had that demand filled- remaining pent up demand here can't be met until SR is on sale.

Elon brought this up on the call- though how he said it was super awkward- basically telling us demand is insanely high but the car is too expensive for those insanely high demand customers. SR, in theory, will address that.

Its just weird that with insane demand I can go and order a 42,900 model 3(doing it now) and get a delivery in February. Essentially in the next 3 days.

Why in the world is that weird? That's by design

As explained- the 5k/week for the US only run rate filled all backlog demand for the non-SR version of the car by sometime in Q4.... at which point they kept the run rate going to create inventory... so that they would have plenty on hand to sell as production switched over the Europe and China.

The fact US dealers have "months" of inventory is the point

This way they don't run out of cars while most new production isn't available in the US.

That lets Tesla now address the higher-priced Model 3 demand overseas with most factory production for the months it'll take to fill those orders.

Once the ROW backlog on higher priced models is taken care of what comes next will depend on if SR is ready or not.

If it is, expect another demand flood/delivery rush to try and get the last 6 months of US federal tax credits in the US...and then after that a repeat of what you see right now- with ROW SR demand being met early next year while US production mostly goes overseas to fill it.

That gets us to mid 2020- at which point Tesla is projecting 10k/week Model 3 production and that the entire world will absorb that much production.... and keep in mind probably half that 10k is specifically going to China where demand is still ramping considerably for EVs.... (3k is made IN china exclusively for china- the cheaper versions of the car- the higher speced chinese ones will still be made in Freemont)

Question though is, how many people of those expecting the SR wanted it with the full Federal tax credit?

Wanted? all of em. Who doesn't WANT free money?

The more important question is who will cancel their order if they don't get it.


No doubt some will. Price sensitive folks who reserved in 2016 hoping to get a 27.5k model 3, if they're in the same financial position in 2019, might not buy one.

On the other hand the folks who can't quite afford a 40-something thousand one CAN afford a 35k one (or less in states still doing incentives) those will still order.

SR moves the Model 3 from being thousands above the "average" new car selling price in the US to being a little below the average new car selling price.

That certainly changes the # of people who will buy one doesn't it?

 

[StealthP3D]

Its just weird that with insane demand I can go and order a 42,900 model 3(doing it now) and get a delivery in February.

That's not weird, it's normal. Even during periods of high demand for new cars the big automakers have hundreds of thousands of unsold cars sitting on dealership lots around the country. The only difference is the manufacturer no longer owns them, the dealers do (or their finance companies). Tesla STILL can't keep up with demand.