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US Market Situation and Outlook

Discussion in 'TSLA Investor Discussions' started by Benz, Feb 4, 2015.

  1. Benz

    Benz Active Member

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    There already are similar threads for China and Europe.

    The US is the primary market for Tesla Motors.

    Let's gather all the Tesla related information regarding the US market in this thread.

    For January 2015 there have been mentioned several sales/delivery numbers:

    Inside EVs: 1,100

    Link: http://insideevs.com/monthly-plug-in-sales-scorecard/

    HybridCars (January 2015 Dashboard): 1,300

    Link: http://www.hybridcars.com/january-2015-dashboard/

    Best Selling Cars Blog: 2,250

    Link: http://bestsellingcarsblog.com/2015/02/usa-january-2015-general-motors-strong-in-market-up-14/#more-49885

    The real numbers should be somewhere inbetween.

    And as time goes by, more information will be reported.

    It's very likely that the numbers reported from a particular US state will be more accurate.

    All we have to do is add them up.

    Let's do that in this thread.

    Cheers
     
  2. Benz

    Benz Active Member

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    The California New Car Dealers Association (CNCDA) publish their California Auto Outlook every quarter on their website.
    The sales figures of the Tesla Model S can be found in the Luxery and Sports segment (and also look further down the document).

    2012 Q2: 8 (June)
    2012 Q3: 109
    2012 Q4: 1,113

    2012 total: 1,230

    2013 Q1: 2,406
    2013 Q2: 2,308
    2013 Q3: 1,823
    2013 Q4: 1,793

    2013 total: 8,330

    2014 Q1: 1,533
    2014 Q2: 954
    2014 Q3: 1,239
    2014 Q4: ?

    2014 Q1+Q2+Q3: 3,726

    2012 + 2013 + 2014 (so far) = 13,286

    Maybe someone can find Tesla Model S sales numbers from other US states as well?
     
  3. RationalOptimist

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    Wild that California (pop 38m) did the same sales in 2013 as all of Europe (pop >300m) did in 2014. You could view that as disappointing by Europe. Or you could view it as untapped potential.
     
  4. chickensevil

    chickensevil Active Member

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    I think because of VA not yet allowing a Tesla "dealer" it is unclear if the registration data for VA is counting Tesla at all. If it is, it could either be under "imports - other" or "domestic - other".

    Just so we might be able to figure this one out here is their list of manufacturers:
    Imports:
    ACUR
    BMW
    FIAT
    HOND
    HYUN
    INFI
    JAGU
    KIA
    LEXU
    MAZD
    MERC
    MITS
    NISS
    OTHR
    SUBA
    TOYO
    VOLK
    VOLV


    Domestic:
    BUIC
    CADI
    CHEV
    CHRY
    DODG
    FORD
    GMC
    JEEP
    LINC
    OTHR

    Assuming Tesla falls under the Domestic - Other category then the total number for January is listed as 17. Given the above list, thankfully all the companies I can think of that would normally fall in a low volume "other" category would also be an import, so what other domestic seller is not already listed above?

    Data pulled from here:
    Statistical Reports | Virginia Automobile Dealers Association | Driving Virginia Since 1943
     
  5. Benz

    Benz Active Member

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    2014 Q4: 2,384

    2014 Q1+Q2+Q3+Q4 = 6,110

    2012 + 2013 + 2014 = 15,670

    Link: http://www.cncda.org/CMS/Pubs/Cal_Covering_4Q_14.pdf
     
  6. bonaire

    bonaire Active Member

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    #6 bonaire, Feb 20, 2015
    Last edited by a moderator: Feb 20, 2015
    If you look at the reservation Tally breakdown of either the Model S back in 2013 when TMC was tracking reservation numbers - or the Model X Tally thread now which shows the breakdowns by region - the ratio was about 4:1 or so of North America to Europe. So, California and Europe track somewhat closely. Whether it is untapped advertising to educate people more in order to place a new order or not - the balance of interest appears to be relatively constant between Model S ordering and Model X ordering when comparing the two regions. In one compare, the NA total vs. European total of Model X is as follows 4.5:1 based on 18010:3929. Not sure if it is "conclusive" but I'd say the California market and European market demand are roughly about the same.

    It seems to be getting better now versus back in 2013. It may be that Europe is "picking up" comparatively.

    Model S mid-March 2013 US Prod:EU Prod about 6:1
    19,984:3,002

    (numbers above are reservation #s and not deliveries - by which reservation numbers are indicative of demand)
     
  7. Benz

    Benz Active Member

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    Total global Tesla Model S deliveries
    2012 + 2013 + 2014 = 2,650 + 22,477 + 31, 655 = 56,782

    15,670 / 56,782 = about 27.6%

    So, about 27.6% of all global Tesla Model S deliveries in the past 3 years were delivered in California.

    What does that mean for the total number of Tesla Model S deliveries in California in 2015?
     
  8. schonelucht

    schonelucht Active Member

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    I expect model S sales in California to be lower in '15 if Tesla manages to bring Model X to its customers by the 3rd quarter. Based on prior history, California will get prioritized deliveries for the new car. With a backlog of 20k, few California-S slots will be left in the production schedule.
     
  9. chickensevil

    chickensevil Active Member

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    It depends on if they are sacrificing the S delivery schedule to accommodate the X or if it is added on top. Based on the shareholder letter of 800 MX a week by the end of the year, it almost sounds like they are going to take the MS to 1200 and then go flat from there for the rest of the year. So it will give the appearance of "peaked" demand... but I don't necessarily think that will be the *real* peak. (note that is a run rate of about 60k a year of MS).
     
  10. Benz

    Benz Active Member

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    There are currently 27 live Supercharger stations in California. And in Q1 2017 this total will have increased to about 50. I think that this will be certainly helpful to increase sales numbers of the Tesla Model S in California in 2015 and beyond.
     
  11. Ingenieur

    Ingenieur Member

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    Any thoughts on March US Sales?
    Can we beat Dec 2014?
    If EU is 4000 for Q1, NA at 6000 and Rest at 1000, thats beat of 1500 cars
     
  12. Ingenieur

    Ingenieur Member

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    What are you talking about regarding last sentence?


    As for 100 PT, this is where i see the stock long to mid term, im willing to play the upside if there is a beat on deliveries.
    Sorry that i actually post information on this forum you wont find nowhere else, especially regarding Chinese market, i wrote about scalpers being responsible for bulk of orders back in October and attacked by permabulls like you.



    The way i see things play out: Big beat on deliveries announced by Mid April, stock goes to 220, then loss 200+ Mio -> down, see why i ask?
     
  13. daniel Ox9EFD

    daniel Ox9EFD Member

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    1) Great idea for a thread. This was certainly missing.

    2) Optimists/pessimists/profession+"-ists": please lets get back on topic.

    3) Besides looking at InsideEVs numbers, is there any way to bound the uncertainty on NA numbers?
    If it is 1100, 1150 for Jan, Feb, it doesn't look like a beat. But the estimate were all over the place. One way to solve this would be to take a weighted average, with weights by prior accuracy. But being too lazy for that, perhaps someone has a good estimate, preferably based on registration numbers?
     
  14. daniel Ox9EFD

    daniel Ox9EFD Member

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    Some estimates:
    InsideEVs estimates (http://insideevs.com/monthly-plug-in-sales-scorecard/):
    Jan: 1100
    Feb: 1150
    hybridcars estimates (http://www.hybridcars.com/february-2015-dashboard/):
    Jan: 1300
    Feb: 1400
    Average:
    Jan: 1200
    Feb: 1275

    Ratio of March sales to average Jan+Feb in 2014: ~1.2
    Using same ratio for this year:
    Mar: 1485

    This gives an estimate for total US for Q1: 3960

    Assuming US is around 50% of world production, expecting total deliveries in Q1: ~8000.

    For a beat they need an extra strong US in March or extra strong Europe.
     
  15. RobStark

    RobStark Active Member

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    Perfect storm may be coming where Model S is number one BEV sold in America!
    2015-sales-chart-apr-vfinal3-750x525.png
     
  16. SR22pilot

    SR22pilot Member

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    Georgia has removed its $5K subsidy for electrics and added a $200/yr tax. While this may hurt Tesla a little I think it will crater the Leaf. Leafs are everywhere around the northern Atlanta metro area. Nissan says Georgia is responsible for a third of all US Leaf sales. That means this change is very significant.
     
  17. svp

    svp Member

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  18. Gerasimental

    Gerasimental Member

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    This number, as well as that posted by Rob are just estimates made by the respective websites that publish them, since Tesla doesn't release monthly sales information.
    What I find odd is that they disagree so wildly about Q1 numbers, with InsideEVs having 4700, vs 6082 (=8287-2205) for focus2move.

    However, it seems from the EU thread that April EU numbers are 800+X, well below the 1200 required to achieve the same numbers as Q1 without an end of quarter push.
    I expect therefore that we will see a heavier focus on US deliveries this quarter. That way Q2 has good margins despite the €/$ situation while Q3 will see far more deliveries to the EU, being a mixture of those at the old (lower) and new (higher) price, slightly softening the blow from very low margins on EU cars ordered before last week.
     
  19. svp

    svp Member

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    Gerasimental, yes, just estimates. Another number here - 1650 - EV Sales: USA April 2015
    Regarding end of quarter push, we'll start seeing how that changes monthly numbers distribution when May and June numbers come out.
    He may have just referred to the last few days frenzy. Hard for me to see Norway deliveries for example at just 700 this quarter (230 in April * 3).
     
  20. bonaire

    bonaire Active Member

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    It is because GA gave the rebate to people doing 2-year Leases on Leafs. Making the car basically free for a year. GA should have considered purchase-only and something like $4000 per sale. Doing a quick 2-year lease will cause a glut of them on the used lots fairly soon. I see the next-gen Leaf having 150 mile or more range and that is what may help them sell at the same level as today. The 80-mile range limit was good for hard-core BEV enthusiasts but they need the triple-digits and more for real folks to buy them.
     

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