US Market Situation and Outlook (Rob Stark's American Megathread)

[Cattledog]

BTW Mercedes had 21,934 S-Class sales in the USA in 2015.

Tesla wins F-Segment sales race in the USA!!!

So Model S had approximately 24,000 US sales in 2015. I don't care if 17,400 was at the 'low end' of guidance for Q4, if someone had told any of us pre-launch in June 2012 that in 3 years the Model S would be the best selling luxury sedan in the US, we would all have smiled and then wondered what they had for breakfast.
Ridiculously great work by the design, engineering manufacturing, sales and service teams.

This is how you call a win a win!

 

[chickensevil]

So Model S had approximately 24,000 US sales in 2015. I don't care if 17,400 was at the 'low end' of guidance for Q4, if someone had told any of us pre-launch in June 2012 that in 3 years the Model S would be the best selling luxury sedan in the US, we would all have smiled and then wondered what they had for breakfast.
Ridiculously great work by the design, engineering manufacturing, sales and service teams.

This is how you call a win a win!

We had the F-Segment in 2013 as well. It was just lost due to the S Class refresh happening last year (the refresh years tend to be some of the larger selling years) and Tesla pushing sales outside of the US in Q2 of 2014. So it is nice to see that they have production high enough that we can get back to and exceed the 2013 numbers. The MS is a much better car today than it was in 2013 as far as some of the missing luxuries people were complaining about, so I think that has also helped Tesla maintain and continue to grow.

But generally yes, by this point the design would be considered "tired" and our sales numbers should have been plateauing and instead it has only continued to grow! They just couldn't deliver an increase Y/Y in 2014 due to supply. I still think this isn't quite the end of the demand numbers for the MS in the US, especially if they pulled ~5k of sales in December as VG is suggesting!

 

[Benz]

According to Inside EVs there were 25,700 Tesla Model S deliveries in the US in 2015, that's more than 51% of the total global Tesla Model S deliveries in 2015 (50,366).

How many of those 25,700 Tesla Model S deliveries in the US (+ Canada) in 2015 were in California alone?

About 10,000?

According to CNCDA, the total for the first three quarters stands at 7,336 (in third position, just behind the Mercedes Benz E-Class and the BMW 5-Series).

Link: http://www.cncda.org/CMS/Pubs/Cal Covering 3Q 15-CNCDA edits.pdf

 

[Troy]

Hi everybody. Because this is the main topic for USA registration numbers, I want to post an update. As you might know, in this shareholder letter on 10 Feb 2016, for the first time Tesla published USA registration numbers for 2014 and 2015. The table on that PDF looks like THIS. I found Canada estimates HERE. This enabled more accurate estimates for North America. (I mean the yearly totals for North America are more accurate but the distribution of these totals to quarters is still a guess work). We already know the Europe numbers from the wiki project and we know the global numbers because Tesla publishes these too. That means we have now reasonably accurate estimates for Asia/Pacific. Full table with footnotes and color codes can be found HERE.

	North America	Europe	Asia/Pacific	Global	YOY Quarterly Global Growth
Q3 2012	250 (1*)	100.0%	0	0.0%	0	0.0%	250 (7*)	Not available​
Q4 2012	2,400 (1*)	100.0%	0	0.0%	0	0.0%	2,400 (7*)	Not available
Q1 2013	4,832 (2*)	98.4%	79 (5*)	1.6%	0	0.0%	4,911 (8*)	Not available​
Q2 2013	5,120 (2*)	99.2%	42 (5*)	0.8%	0	0.0%	5,162 (8*)	Not available
Q3 2013	4,288 (2*)	77.8%	1,224 (6*)	22.2%	0	0.0%	5,512 (8*)	Not available
Q4 2013	4,223 (2*)	61.3%	2,669 (6*)	38.7%	0	0.0%	6,892 (7*)	Not available
Q1 2014	3,384 (2*)	52.4%	3,073 (6*)	47.6%	0	0.0%	6,457 (7*)	31.48%
Q2 2014	4,278 (3*)	56.4%	2,482 (6*)	32.7%	819 (9*)	10.8%	7,579 (7*)	46.82%
Q3 2014	4,421 (3*)	56.8%	1,583 (6*)	20.3%	1,781 (9*)	22.9%	7,785 (7*)	41.24%
Q4 2014	5,453 (3*)	55.5%	2,382 (6*)	24.2%	1,999 (9*)	20.3%	9,834 (7*)	42.69%
Q1 2015	5,402 (4*)	53.8%	3,453 (6*)	34.4%	1,190 (9*)	11.8%	10,045 (7*)	55.57%
Q2 2015	6,335 (4*)	54.9%	3,904 (6*)	33.9%	1,293 (9*)	11.2%	11,532 (7*)	52.16%
Q3 2015	6,350 (4*)	54.7%	3,517 (6*)	30.3%	1,736 (9*)	15.0%	11,603 (7*)	49.04%
Q4 2015	9,125 (4*)	52.4%	5,347 (6*)	30.7%	2,928 (9*)	16.8%	17,400 (7*)	76.94%

 

[chickensevil]

Thanks for the numbers update. I like having more solid numbers for 2014/2015.

Wow, that US demand... We pulled ahead of the old numbers from Q2 2013 in Q4 2014 and it hasn't really settled since. I expect Q1 2016 to to look similar to Q1 2015 where we are relatively flat and then should see solid numbers all year long. This should be Tesla's best NA year yet! I don't know if ~9k a quarter is sustainable but if it is, or if it can go even higher this is going to get quite fun to watch!

 

[RobStark]

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Wheres Tesla Worth? - Tesla Motors (NASDAQ:TSLA) | Seeking Alpha

 

[RobStark]

Large Luxury Car
March
2016
▴ March
2015 %
Change 2016
YTD 2015
YTD %
Change
Mercedes-Benz S-Class
1332
2098 -36.5% 4167 5096 -18.2%
BMW 7-Series
850
732 16.1% 2313 1941 19.2%
Lexus LS
469
676 -30.6% 1240 1848 -32.9%
Jaguar XJ
441
434 1.6% 1089 952 14.4%
Audi A8
422
461 -8.5% 985 1067 -7.7%
BMW 6-Series *
389
2434 -84.0% 839 4182 -79.9%
Porsche Panamera
334
433 -22.9% 963 1312 -26.6%
---
---
--- --- --- --- ---
Total
4237
7268 -41.7% 11,596 16,398 -29.3%

Large Luxury Car Sales In America - March 2016 YTD - GOOD CAR BAD CAR

 

[Benz]

California Q1 2016:

Luxury and Sports:

Tesla Model S
2552

Mercedes Benz E-Class
2445

BMW 5-Series
2068

Lexus GS
1143

Mercedes Benz S-Class
1068

Source: CNCDA

Link: http://www.cncda.org/CMS/Pubs/CA Auto Outlook 1Q 2016.pdf

 

[schonelucht]

There is something weird going on with the California report. When looking at the totals across all models, the FY report specifies 10743 while the 3Q report specifies 7336 tru September. So that leaves 3407 for October tru December yet the deliveries for the 4th quarter are reported on the same line as being only 3130. That's a difference of nearly 300! Seems quite a lot. What am I missing? If there are a lot of late registrations not included in the split by model number then that could mean California model S deliveries in Q1 actually increased y-o-y instead of declining from 2623 to 2552.

The report also allows to figure out the number of model X's sold : 20 in the last quarter of 2015 and 385 in the first quarter of this year. It's puzzling how this is less than 1/6th of the total US deliveries while California accounts for over 1/3th of the US model S's. You'd expect Tesla to especially have delivered the X to Californian customers first, yet that does not seem to have happened. Or is the X simply less popular in California compared to other states?

 

[Benz]

There is something weird going on with the California report. When looking at the totals across all models, the FY report specifies 10743 while the 3Q report specifies 7336 tru September. So that leaves 3407 for October tru December yet the deliveries for the 4th quarter are reported on the same line as being only 3130. That's a difference of nearly 300! Seems quite a lot. What am I missing? If there are a lot of late registrations not included in the split by model number then that could mean California model S deliveries in Q1 actually increased y-o-y instead of declining from 2623 to 2552.

The report also allows to figure out the number of model X's sold : 20 in the last quarter of 2015 and 385 in the first quarter of this year. It's puzzling how this is less than 1/6th of the total US deliveries while California accounts for over 1/3th of the US model S's. You'd expect Tesla to especially have delivered the X to Californian customers first, yet that does not seem to have happened. Or is the X simply less popular in California compared to other states?

I think that the 2015 Q4 delivery total of 3130 must be an error.

 

[RobStark]

Plug-Ins Take Nearly 4% Of The Subcompact Sales In The U.S.

 

[RobStark]

 

[bonaire]

I have posted "for years" that the plug in market will grow "slow and steady". Looks like that. On inside EVs, I upgraded my annual growth for 2016 from 8% growth to 12% growth year over year for the entire market after the June/July numbers came out. That is for all plug-in varieties. Bolt will not make much of an impact until 2017. Ford is doing surprising well and consistently but I don't believe hangs as tough through the end of the year. MS/MX 60 will help and could push that to 15% growth if paired up with continued strong Volt sales. Leaf not expected to do much.

Remember too that 2015 was a down year overall from 2014. So, slow and steady she goes. No hockey stick on the horizon yet.

 

[SBenson]

I have posted "for years" that the plug in market will grow "slow and steady". Looks like that. On inside EVs, I upgraded my annual growth for 2016 from 8% growth to 12% growth year over year for the entire market after the June/July numbers came out. That is for all plug-in varieties. Bolt will not make much of an impact until 2017. Ford is doing surprising well and consistently but I don't believe hangs as tough through the end of the year. MS/MX 60 will help and could push that to 15% growth if paired up with continued strong Volt sales. Leaf not expected to do much.

Remember too that 2015 was a down year overall from 2014. So, slow and steady she goes. No hockey stick on the horizon yet.

Spot on. We will have to wait for Model 3 for a hockey stick.

 

[bonaire]

Spot on. We will have to wait for Model 3 for a hockey stick.

I vote for "acceleration" but given the existing market of say 135,000 in the USA for 2016, consider 2017 being in the 200,000 total "take rate" and then 300,000 for 2018. Remember that Tesla's "500,000 Build Plan" is not "per-year". It is to build their 500,000'the car by some time in the year 2018.

And so, Tesla's total sales this year is about 70k, 120k+ in 2017 and 200k+ in 2018 (worse case late 2018). it's looking like 2018 may be "double" 2016. But we'll have to wait and see. Gas prices and other exciting factors are in play. Back in 2013 or so, I predicted 30% annual growth for the industry the next couple years. 2015 actually was less than 2014, so that prediction was "way high". This year, I am looking at 12% right now for the plug-in market growth (YoY entire USA market for 2016/2015).

I just did a nice road trip to the south. Saw zero plug-in cars after commuting 5 days to a work site and including a visit to a NASA site (one where SpaceX is doing testing on such things like their Raptor mars engine).

 

[Mario Kadastik]

I think you are mistaken bonaire. Teslas plan is to produce 500k cars in 2018, that's what the whole GF acceleration has been about. It'll be 100-150k MS/MX and 350-400k M3. The plan is to get M3 ramped in 2017 to a pace that can produce 350k M3 in 2018. Elon has said as much when he talked about bringing the M3 and GF plans of 2020 closer to 2018.

 

[Troy]

Remember that Tesla's "500,000 Build Plan" is not "per-year". It is to build their 500,000'the car by some time in the year 2018.

I think it might be 500,000 units per year because in THIS shareholder letter Tesla mentions a 5 fold increase. If production rate is 100K per year at the end of 2016, 5 fold would be 500K/year at the end of 2018. That's how I read it.

Advancing Build Plan
We are on track to achieve volume Model 3 production and deliveries in late 2017. Of course, in order to meet that timeframe, we will be holding both ourselves and our suppliers accountable to be ready for volume production in advance of that timing.

Additionally, given the demand for Model 3, we have decided to advance our 500,000 total unit build plan (combined for Model S, Model X, and Model 3) to 2018, two years earlier than previously planned. Increasing production five fold over the next two years will be challenging and will likely require some additional capital, but this is our goal and we will be working hard to achieve it.

 

[bonaire]

I think it might be 500,000 units per year because in THIS shareholder letter Tesla mentions a 5 fold increase. If production rate is 100K per year at the end of 2016, 5 fold would be 500K/year at the end of 2018. That's how I read it.

At the time it was written, the build rate was possibly 1700/wk. Five fold is 8500/wk. That is perhaps 425000 per year but it all depends on when the lines were written. Also, five-fold can be construed two ways. "Five times the current" and "Five times more on top of the current". Usually they talk about "build rate exiting a specific time". Maybe they mean to be able to reach a peak production rate nearing 10,000 per week but cannot guarantee that deliveries and demand match that number. But I presume that they want to be "able to" build at that rate. I don't believe that the lines that can put together can reach 10,000 per week production rate by 2018 - but I suspect that they want to try to get there. They are barely at 2000/week now, so it takes time, labor, factory retooling, supplier logistics and far more than just wanting to hit a number. Train and truck and ship logistics are key.

I have not yet seen a clear indication from Tesla that they mean "500,000" per year. They use somewhat obscure sentence structure. Perhaps not to be held to a specific guidance indication. This is why we have the bickering between the longs and shorts - because we have not seen exactness in these areas.

 

[Troy]

@bonaire,

In THIS video at 14:24 Elon says half a million cars per year. To me it is clear that they will make 500,000 S+X+3 in 2018. The Gigafactory was originally designed to support 500,000 cars by 2020. Then they moved that to 2018.

 

[RobStark]

500k SEX per year by 2018