In 2009, just when solar installers were starting to grow in number, the teams would continue to write up ROI spreadsheets to indicate 2-3% annual electric rate increases "for 20 years to come". I got two Solar PV install quotes in 2010 after attending a couple renewable energy fairs. "it was looking good" with the price of SREC auctions (NJ up to $650/SREC - ca-ching!) and people were scrambling to install. Friend of mine installed a 20 KW array. $110,000 install price overall (included structural roofing enhancement for the weight added). Cut down dozens of trees. Thought he could put his kids through college with the SRECs.
And then you can see the annual elec prices in your chart drop to low single digits and even below lately.
What happened? Peaker plant demand dropped. Conversion of coal to NG happened. Hydraulic Fracking. NG prices dropped. Demand fell due to shipping more and more functioning factories overseas. The Great Recession caused a power demand curve turn in the USA that has not fully recovered. Only this past few weeks has gasoline demand reached back to 2007 levels (and just surpassed) in the USA.
As we add more renewables, the need for demand-response lessens except for very hot, cloudy days. Power firms will rarely need to pay the $100-300 peak MWh prices that the spot hourly pricing causes to occur during hot summer days. Due to the advent of renewable support on the grid. This keeps overall power prices flatter and less increase per year. However, we do see power prices in CA going up annually even with other states falling. CA PoCos will need to feed some of their costs for supporting new renewable legislation back to ratepayers. In addition, hydro plants have lowered their value due to the flagging water in the systems. Some dams have gone dry. Hoover Dam may also go dry in terms of power production unless the new tube they are installing is done to create further low-water flows. West Coast - nice weather out there - but too nice to support all the demand put on the ecosystem by the people.
One thing the power companies should do but need to stay agnostic is - increase electricity demand overnight. Can they advocate for EV purchases while still telling people to conserve electricity? Can they increase demand while the CPP looms to cause new carbon taxation schemes to come online to perhaps increase prices to ratepayers? Lots to come in the electric generation world. Grab the popcorn.
