We were talking about BART, which operates in 4 (soon in 5) counties throughout the larger SF Bay Area. The population of just San Francisco alone is thus only a small part of the relevant picture.
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VW Fallout: $2.0 Billion for ZEV Infrastructure Buildout
- Thread starter RubberToe
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- Energy Environment Policy
mspohr
Well-Known Member
Heresy to think that government should provide services?This type of thinking is why the state of California is in trouble financially. The public benefit costs are not sustainable ... Econ 101
California is financially healthy because it is willing to raise taxes to pay for services unlike the Feds who cut taxes and services and end up with a big deficit and pathetic services.
Good article Jeff. Interesting that the site opening has been delayed, and that CARB pulled the meeting agenda off its website.
I'm not much of a conspiracy theorist, but here goes anyway...
Put yourself in VW's shows. They are being forced to install $2,000,000,000 worth of EV charging infrastructure in the U.S. over the next 10 years. The "rules" governing the U.S. deployment versus the California deployment are handled by two different agencies. The lawsuit and eventual consent decree governing this process is the original purpose of this entire thread. The intent is to track the deployment and see how it rolls out, and how the money is spent. I haven't read the non-California part of the document as closely as the California part, but the California part requires the DCFC equipment to be non-proprietary, so no Tesla specific chargers allowed. Both Chademo and CCS are allowed.
I don't believe, though I will have to go back and read the fine print again, that there is any mandate stating that EA needs to deploy "equal numbers" of CCS and Chademo chargers. It is in VWs best interest to deploy as many CCS as they can, since their cars use that standard. As long as what they are doing is "within the letter of the law" versus say "the intent of the law", then there is no reason why they couldn't have 8 cables at each site, with only a single one being Chademo, and the rest CCS. Given all evidence to date, it could be that is exactly what they might do. The hardware suppliers they linked to on their website showed some only supporting CCS. It looks like their first two DCFC deployments strongly favor CCS. BTW, anyone notice that there are two different 800 phone numbers in the picture? One on the screen, and one on the pedestal itself!
Maybe CARB has got wind of this and is worried that the California deployments will also be CCS centric, and they want to get some clarification from EA "whats up" before the first annual review tomorrow.
I'll stick with my original line of thinking that this entire EA roll out could end up turning into a very large cluster farce. Having to support two different "standards" is not the path to success or simplicity. Just go look at those crazy DCFC's and connectors compared to a Tesla Supercharger. The Chademo connector is the most unwieldy thing ever designed, combined with a cable (the non-cooled ones) thats crazy stupid thick and heavy. There is absolutely no doubt in my mind that there will eventually not be competing Chademo and CCS standards, one is going to disappear in the U.S. When that happens, there are going to be a lot of DCFCs deployed that will get very little usage. Hopefully they can at some point in the future "switch out" the cable and whatever else is required to replace the "outdated" standard that no one is using.
Second part of the cluster farce could well be legal wrangling over how many CCS versus Chademo DCFC cables get deployed. Maybe CARB is not happy with the 8-1 ratio of DCFCs being deployed, so they send a nice letter to EA stating such. EA comes back and says "pound sand", we are complying with the letter of the decree. Any litigation that follows, should there be any, no doubt delays any DCFC rollout by perhaps years.
All the while this process unfolds, Tesla is lighting up 10 Supercharging stalls per day (3-23 through 4-24), and will continue to do so going forward. The 350kW "standard" chargers being deployed by the EA group can't even be used to that level by any car currently being manufactured. Anyone who owns a Tesla and does long distance travel knows that waiting 20 minutes to charge your car every 3 hours of driving is in no way a "deal breaker". The thinking that Tesla is going to lose business to some other manufacturer whose car can charge the same amount in 10 minutes is delusional. It stems from the idea that since you can "fill up" an ICE car in 5 minutes, people will never buy an EV unless it can also "fill up" in 5 minutes. Not the case, different paradigm completely.
RT
SageBrush
REJECT Fascism
The only reason the Tesla world cares about chadeMo is due to the current lock-out from CCS.
Irony
The sooner that is resolved, the sooner chadeMo can disappear.
Irony
The sooner that is resolved, the sooner chadeMo can disappear.
@RubberToe, does the California rule about the chargers having to be non-proprietary mean they couldn’t be specificly for VW (so their penalty didn’t actually become an advantage) or does it mean they can’t have any Tesla connectors even if the station also has CCS and CHAdeMO?
Here is the verbiage from the consent decree concerning what connectors can be provided on the DCFCs:
So the blue text above makes it pretty clear that EA can roll out CCS connectors at whatever ratio to Chademo they so choose. To answer @TexasEV : the above states that the chargers "shall" have the ability to service non-proprietary connectors. That doesn't necessarily mean that EA couldn't add a Tesla connector. But there is no way that EA will add a Tesla connector. My reading of this is that they could, but I don't see them doing that.
Note that some European DCFC stations are now supporting 3 different connector types.
RT
So the blue text above makes it pretty clear that EA can roll out CCS connectors at whatever ratio to Chademo they so choose. To answer @TexasEV : the above states that the chargers "shall" have the ability to service non-proprietary connectors. That doesn't necessarily mean that EA couldn't add a Tesla connector. But there is no way that EA will add a Tesla connector. My reading of this is that they could, but I don't see them doing that.
Note that some European DCFC stations are now supporting 3 different connector types.
RT
The typical DCFC station in Europe that has 3 connectors only has 2 DC connectors and one AC connector. These are typically CCS, CHAdeMO and "Fast AC" which is 43kW AC Type-2 (63 amps). The Fast AC connection is just exposing the DC charger's AC feed with safety interlocks and passing it to the vehicle.
Brando
Active Member
IF the auto industry could just copy Tesla fantastic ad campaigns. Tesla got people to give a $1,000 deposit and wait for 1 or 2 years and they only got ~400,000 deposits. Now how much per car did that ad campaign cost Tesla?
Perhaps the consumer isn't the problem? Perhaps it is the product being offered? Just say'n.
Since nobody is making money yet on 200 mile EVs at $35k, I'm not convinced that an automaker would want to offer them for sale in large quantities. So we might not even know until a $35k 200mi EV can be produced at normal margins.
Brando
Active Member
Few people drive 500 miles in one shot. I'm suggesting =< 500 miles is a days drive. Then if we can just get electricity everywhere you can charge while you sleep. Which is what most would prefer, right? I'm thinking [I know, always dangerous] long distant charging is only a 2% - 5% problem. BUT it is a major concern for some - I was a traveling salesman once.
Miimura,
This is the article where I read about the Tesla specific connector being added:
First Tesla connector added to a public fast-charging station with CCS/CHAdeMO
I see in the Update section of the article that Tesla is on record as not having supported or authorized its use on Tesla cars.
RT
Brando
Active Member
Chevy can't with the Bolt? Boy, GM missed out. Tesla getting all the high priced sales? Tesla seems fine according to their SEC filings. I know many think only Amazon should be allowed to show no profits by reinvesting all. I think it will work out OK for Tesla. Seems even Ford can't make ICE Sedans at a reasonable margin. Ford moving onto Trucks/SUVs. Too bad Model 3 is a Sedan. Chevy Bolt isn't technically a Sedan, is it? I guess no one in Europe wanted to buy Bolts, so GM bailed and sold off to PSA. Opel, I guess is now French.
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Chevrolet's stated goal with the Bolt EV is to sell it at a profit. You can see many cost cutting measures in it's engineering. Nobody knows if they have reached their goal yet. If they had, I imagine Chevrolet would have made an announcement.
GM for all practical purposes paid PSA to rid themselves of Opel. It had been losing money for 17 consecutive years.
Under CEO Mary Barra, GM lost market share yet improved profits.
My reading of the settlement is that EA might be allowed to add Tesla connectors to their chargers but the expense of doing so could not be paid out of the settlement funds.
I agree that EA does not seem to be required to have similar numbers of CCS versus CHAdeMO connectors although I’m a little bit surprised that the ratio is as stark as 7:1 this early in the buildout.
I think this charging hardware is capable of being easily swapped from CCS to CHAdeMO so they could claim they will change the ratio later if the market demands it. Although the present 100 kW-capable CHAdeMO cables are solid rather than liquid-cooled I suspect that they can easily be swapped as well in the future. According to ChargePoint, CHAdeMO cabling and connector suppliers have not yet obtained safety certification for liquid-cooling yet.
It will be interesting to see if CARB tries to challenge EA/VW on their initial CCS to CHAdeMO ratio.
Brando
Active Member
GM has been losing market share every year since when? 1962 !
U.S. Vehicle Sales Market Share by Company, 1961-2016
1962 50.72%
2016 17.03%
GM only declared bankruptcy once (along with Chrysler?), I think. And only Ford & Tesla have not, right?
Well let us look to GM on how to make money. Great cars? not so much. Great trucks? don't ask me.
Brando
Active Member
@RubberToe
I doubt I'm the first to think of this - BUT I did think you might be one of the best to promote - or get this idea to the right places.
VW diesel cars that VW has in storage - (85,000? or is it 300,000? color me confused)
1- Have VW remove engines, exhaust system, and fuel tank and fuel pumps.
2- Get these "VW shells" to the electric conversion market
- sell them cheap for DIY - can't let ICE engines be re-installed
(let VW get some ZEV if VW wanted it - only for registered electric cars)
- get them to schools/colleges/universities for conversion projects for students.
- get them to conversion companies such as EVwest (they could offer a kit for conversion as they do now for other models)
Sorry if an old idea.
side note: I did send similar note to the below and got an Email reply - no idea IF this was a good place to send such an idea. Hopefully, others have long ago been promoting such an idea.
Board Meeting Comments Log
thanks for reading and good luck
I doubt I'm the first to think of this - BUT I did think you might be one of the best to promote - or get this idea to the right places.
VW diesel cars that VW has in storage - (85,000? or is it 300,000? color me confused)
1- Have VW remove engines, exhaust system, and fuel tank and fuel pumps.
2- Get these "VW shells" to the electric conversion market
- sell them cheap for DIY - can't let ICE engines be re-installed
(let VW get some ZEV if VW wanted it - only for registered electric cars)
- get them to schools/colleges/universities for conversion projects for students.
- get them to conversion companies such as EVwest (they could offer a kit for conversion as they do now for other models)
Sorry if an old idea.
side note: I did send similar note to the below and got an Email reply - no idea IF this was a good place to send such an idea. Hopefully, others have long ago been promoting such an idea.
Board Meeting Comments Log
thanks for reading and good luck
I'm decidedly not a fashionista. I buy vehicles for applications, not to impress.
- The Bolt is the best EV I've driven for under $50,000.
- The Volt is one of a kind. Nobody has matched it's technology yet, so what can you say? Fun, well behaved, green, not a crappy ecobox bone in it's body. If the Prius was this good, Toyota would not have to give them away at loss.
- The Spark EV (RIP) was a tight, fun little car, and suprisingly quick. Top rated in the under $35k class.
- The modern Corvette is the best sportscar at any of it's price points assuming you buy the 'sports car' variants, not the bleach blonde divorcee or old guy with toupee variants. You don't have to 'know' somebody or have media exposure to own one. Just a desire to wear out tires and spend a lot of time grinning.
- The Camaro is the car that only a gearhead can love. 427ci 505HP, radio/AC delete? Yeah. Spool-valve F1 shocks and carbon ceramic brakes? Of course. 650HP blown mouse motor? Of course. The track versions only come in 'MANual' transmission hardtop versions. The beauty of the Corvette and Camaros is they can make even a hobbyist look like a track star. They are exceptionally forgiving and balanced, yet capable of taking on pretty much anything.
- The 1935-2018 Suburban and it's 5 variants are the most copied vehicle in history and new copies come out each year trying to get closer and closer to what the SUVurban has always been. Up to 9 passengers, 23 mpg, and $50k with heavy towing ability.
- And the Silverado. 355HP Hybrid? Yeah. 420HP Corvette power? Yeah. 445HP/910ftlb CR high tech diesel? Of course.
Truth is no other brand matches those unless you want spend far, far more just to achieve parity. Superiority is much harder.
And GM makes profits and issues dividends in the process.
Yes, that station maker has literally hacked apart a Tesla CHAdeMO adapter and installed it inside the charger enclosure. The only improvement for the end user is that Tesla drivers don't have to bring their own adapter to get the 43kW charging rate. Without the adapter, a Tesla vehicle must use the Fast AC connection which will only charge at 11kW, 16kW, or 22kW depending on the on-board charger configuration in the car.
Brando
Active Member
And they do it all while losing market share EVERY year since 1962 and going bankrupt only once.
Marvelous company. How Toyota and VW managed to out produce GM and not go broke is a miracle.
Perhaps Tesla will just be another miracle. Always 2nd to GM.
As of January 2017, the Prius is sold in over 90 countries and regions.[11] Worldwide cumulative sales of the Prius passed the 1 million mark in May 2008,[129] exceeded 2 million units in September 2010,[7] and reached the 3 million milestone in June 2013.[8] As of January 2017, global sales of the Prius family totaled almost 6.115 million units representing 61% of the 10 million hybrids delivered by Toyota Motor Company (TMC) worldwide, including the Lexus brand.[11] Sales of the Prius family are led by the Prius liftback with 3.985 million units, followed by the Aqua/Prius c with 1.38 million, the Prius +/v/α with, 614.7 thousand and the Prius Plug-in Hybrid with 79.3 thousand units.[11
Toyota Prius - Wikipedia
Since 1997 and now on the 5th generation near 4 million and you really think they don't make money on them??
OK, you think GM the best. I'm thinking Tesla trying to become the best. And Tesla is doing it.
Obviously I'm not going to change your opinion and I haven't read anything to change mine.
Good night, and good luck.
I am Saabing on... thank you GM for putting an end to a fine 2L Hatchback.
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