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Waymo Makes History: First Fully Self Driving Car With No Driver

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Here's my litmus test. How many of you driving a Tesla would actually take your hands off the wheel for a split second when passing a pedestrian or bicyclist or when approaching a crosswalk? I hope the answer is ZERO. Waymo has been doing it for years! For those that think we're minutes away from Tesla flipping the switch on FSD, have another toke on the bong.
 
Here's my litmus test. How many of you driving a Tesla would actually take your hands off the wheel for a split second when passing a pedestrian or bicyclist or when approaching a crosswalk? I hope the answer is ZERO. Waymo has been doing it for years! For those that think we're minutes away from Tesla flipping the switch on FSD, have another toke on the bong.

Oh come on.

You can do lots of things at 25mph - especially if you're French.

Jump to 0.36

 
How did you get from demo to useless?

It's not useless at all. The video shows residents who have signed up for the system being taxied slowly around their quiet suburban neighbourhood.

According to the evidence in the video it looks stable in low levels of traffic and at modest speeds.

But it does remind me of Blue Origin's claim of reusability.

Which was another example of a big claim extrapolated from a limited demo. :D

He doesn't understand what Waymo is doing, or Tesla for that matter.

Google maps the environment in advance. Eventually the whole world will be within the geofence. Musk claims that this sort of preparation is unnecessary, far as I can understand Tesla's approach.

It seems obvious that google car will do the high detail mapping. Later an automated google car will run the area looking for changes.

Since Tesla apparently doesn't have the time or money to do this level of development they will skip it. Because AI.
 
No, not at all.

We've just learned the hard way that cool autopilot videos are insufficient evidence of a paradigm shift.

I guess I wouldn't really compare Waymo videos like that with the single Tesla video, but of course, by all means let's wait until either are on the public market to judge the progress...

That said, Waymo already is with a safety driver - people can get rides in one. That's beyond a demo. But sure, let's wait until nobody is behind the seat in a production capacity. Maybe Tesla surprises us with FSD.
 
I guess I wouldn't really compare Waymo videos like that with the single Tesla video, but of course, by all means let's wait until either are on the public market to judge the progress...

That said, Waymo already is with a safety driver - people can get rides in one. That's beyond a demo. But sure, let's wait until nobody is behind the seat in a production capacity. Maybe Tesla surprises us with FSD.

To use a medication analogy: this is like an early controlled clinical trail. It's great that it's reached the trial stage, but we don't know how effective the drug will be, how broad the application and the company isn't saying how much it's going to cost.
 
Maybe Tesla surprises us with FSD

Maybe - maybe not. Still too early to call.

The thing that Tesla does have in its favour is a group of vocal owners who are having to deal with first-hand experiences of working / wrestling with .40 / .42 / .44 etc on the roads and driving conditions which they choose, not Tesla.

I look forward to the equivalent "my Waymo tried to kill me!!!!!!!"
 
To use a medication analogy: this is like an early controlled clinical trail. It's great that it's reached the trial stage, but we don't know how effective the drug will be, how broad the application and the company isn't saying how much it's going to cost.

Yeah, but on the other end of the spectrum we have the guys with a PowerPoin... a video (Tesla). :)

IMO reasonably speaking saying Waymo and Tesla are anywhere near a similar place probably is false equivalency.
 
That's SO, SO misleading.

Waymo uses: 360 degree vision, 360 degree radar and 360 degree lidar. A redundant, 360 degree system.

It most definitely sees in more situations than Tesla does, in more directions.

I'm first off confused as to where you believe this contradicts anything I wrote. I didn't talk about visual angles *at all*.

Having 1x LIDAR isn't "redundant"; if you lose the LIDAR, your LIDAR data stream is gone, period. Waymo cannot drive without LIDAR data. The radar and visual data exist to help them contextualize the LIDAR data that they're getting. They're not designed to fall back on photogrammetry or radar ranging when LIDAR goes out.

IMO reasonably speaking saying Waymo and Tesla are anywhere near a similar place probably is false equivalency.

Nor are they working on the same problem. Waymo is working on a "can you do it at all" problem, while Tesla is working on a "can you do it in a way that's practical and affordable for everyday vehicles" problem. Waymo's problem is much simpler.
 
Having 1x LIDAR isn't "redundan

That's why Waymo has five Lidars using three different Lidar categories. One on top and redundant Lidars on the edges, plus 360 radar, plus 360 vision.

What does Tesla do when one side or rear camera is blocked? It is blind in urban driving for any meaningful distance with simply one camera out...

Waymo has redundant sensors in all directions using several technologies that see 360 degrees in complete darkness, through objects and in many kinds of weather.

I was disagreeing with your apparent suggestion that because Waymo uses also Lidar, it would somehow see worse than Tesla's vision. I sincerely doubt that...

Don't be fooled by Waymo geofencing or limiting weather. That's just them validating the system and starting safely and conservatively. Their suite itself is well able to handle a lot... And the big thing: quite probably their software also is already able to handle a lot more than they intend to start using at first.
 
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Google maps the environment in advance. Eventually the whole world will be within the geofence. Musk claims that this sort of preparation is unnecessary, far as I can understand Tesla's approach.

It seems obvious that google car will do the high detail mapping. Later an automated google car will run the area looking for changes.

Google pretty much has every street in the US mapped I would think. Most of the major cities in the world as well. Amazing accomplishment IMHO. Just look at any street on Google maps at street level.
 
Waymo cannot drive without LIDAR data. The radar and visual data exist to help them contextualize the LIDAR data that they're getting. They're not designed to fall back on photogrammetry or radar ranging when LIDAR goes out.

No one knows the inner workings of Waymo's Self Driving Software.
What we do know from various presentation and articles is that all data from their various sensor configuration play huge roles.

The Radar/Vision doesn't exist to contextualize the Lidar data. They have independent functions.

Radar exist to see and continuously track approaching vehicles, pedestrians and cyclists from all directions in increment weather. These radars can see "underneath and around vehicles, tracking moving objects usually hidden from the human eye.”

Cameras exist to detect and classify objects. Especially objects that's defined by their color such as "traffic lights, construction zones, school buses, and the flashing lights of emergency vehicles." These high resolution cameras allow Waymo to "detect small objects like construction cones far away even when we’re cruising down a road at high speed. And with a wide dynamic range we can see in a dark parking lot, or out in the blazing sun — or any condition in between."

Lidar exists to see and continuously track "shapes in three dimensions, detect stationary objects, and measure distance precisely."

Both the Camera and Lidar system runs two separate and individual Neural Network Models.

One NN is for Object Detection and Classification using images.
The other is for Object Detection and Classification using 3D cloud points.


You can find the relevant clip at 10 minutes 20 seconds

TLDR: The Waymo system is a complete complimentary system.
 
Don't be fooled by Waymo geofencing or limiting weather. That's just them validating the system and starting safely and conservatively. Their suite itself is well able to handle a lot...

Okay, what have you done with the real AnxietyRanger? Or rather, his critical thinking?

Again a .42 report:

Still, solid performance and annoying leftward-bias, but also experience from a couple of cars that exited the lane in front of my on a freeway. Even though the IC showed lanes as blue and the lead car as white, it started following the leaving lead car in both of these cases.

Now, it didn't go far, just merely maybe 10% of the lane towards the right before returning to its bias on the leftward side of the lane. But it was very noticeable for 1-2 seconds what was happening. Not too bad, not enough to disengage or force me to take manual control, but it was very noticeable and happened twice with different lead cars. This was a divided motorway.

Anyone else had this?
 
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Musk's "2X as good as human driver" probably can't even be sold as level 3 in the U.S.

Hey! I resemble that remark!


shifu.jpg

"There is now a Level Zero"
 
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Okay, what have you done with the real AnxietyRanger? Or rather, his critical thinking?

Look, I'm all for saying we don't know Waymo's full capabilities until we see them in action, but at the same time the reality is we've seen a lot more of Waymo self-driving that we've seen Tesla. At some point putting a bit more odds in Waymo's corner makes some sense to me... (As far as seeing who gets there first.)

We shall see.