Waymo

[Doggydogworld]

No kidding! What are they waiting for? But considering what a big ride-hailing market SF is, the wait might be worth it because once Waymo is allowed to do driverless at scale, 24/7, in all of SF, that will offer a big potential for profit.

Cruise's permit allows 30 cars to carry members of the public, IIRC. They won't allow Waymo to scale rapidly, either. Which is just fine by Waymo, from all appearances. I'll be shocked if they have 100 cars running at once by the end of this year.

Cruise did run 100 simultaneously, but they're more aggressive. Also, it was the middle of the night and only two cars had riders. So it was just a test, not a scalable business model.

 

[EVNow]

No kidding! What are they waiting for? But considering what a big ride-hailing market SF is, the wait might be worth it because once Waymo is allowed to do driverless at scale, 24/7, in all of SF, that will offer a big potential for profit.

LOL. How many billions will they make ?

 

[diplomat33]

LOL. How many billions will they make ?

Well, according to a Sept 2022 Bloomberg Intelligence report, Waymo may be able to generate about $5 billion in revenue by 2025. And in my opinion, a fully scaled robotaxi service in Phoenix, SF and LA could make billions in profit.

 

[EVNow]

Well, according to a Sept 2022 Bloomberg Intelligence report, Waymo may be able to generate about $5 billion in revenue by 2025. And in my opinion, a fully scaled robotaxi service in Phoenix, SF and LA could make billions in profit.

I'd definitely like to see some calculations on that !

Assuming you are talking about $1B per year - that would require about $3M profit per day. Assuming even $30 profit per trip, 100k trips per day.

How many trips does Uber do in these cities per day ? How many cars do you need to run?

And they are doing 2 trips per day now ?!

 

[diplomat33]

And they are doing 2 trips per day now ?!

Waymo is doing way more than 2 trips per day now.

 

[EVNow]

Waymo is doing way more than 2 trips per day now.

Really ? This is what you quoted in the other thread.

183 driverless trips / 90 days = 2 trips per day.

Over three months, Waymo did 183 trips as part of its driverless pilot, ferried 441 passengers, and traversed 3,057 miles.

Still waiting for your detailed analysis on how they will make billions in profit operating in 3 cities.

 

[diplomat33]

Really ? This is what you quoted in the other thread.

183 driverless trips / 90 days = 2 trips per day.

Still waiting for your detailed analysis on how they will make billions in profit operating in 3 cities.

Those trips are just for SF. It is not counting all the trips they do in Phoenix.

My analysis for how Waymo makes $1B in profit:

Annual Profit	$ 1,000,000,000.00
Profit/day	$ 2,739,726.03
Revenue/day (assuming 10% profit margin)	$ 27,397,260.27
Revenue/day/vehicle (assuming fleet of 50,000)	$ 547.95
Trips/day/vehicle (assuming average fare of $8)	68

My model assumes a fleet of 50,000 vehicles, making ~68 trips per day with an average fare of $8/trip and a 10% profit margin. That would earn Waymo $1B in profit per year.

68 trips per day per vehicle is reasonable. It would require each Waymo to drive 13 hours per day (which is doable for a driverless car), about 5 miles per trip, at an average speed of 25 mph (which is about the speed Waymos drive on city streets).

Personally, I don't think Waymo's revenue should only come from ride-hailing alone. I think Waymo should also license their tech to carmakers. The licensing could bring in a few billion dollars per year alone. But that is another debate.

 

[MP3Mike]

68 trips per day per vehicle is reasonable. It would require each Waymo to drive 13 hours per day (which is doable for a driverless car), about 5 miles per trip, at an average speed of 25 mph (which is about the speed Waymo's drive on city streets).

Wow, you expect them to get ~3.4M trips per day in just three cities? From a quick search Uber only gets ~19M trips per day worldwide.

 

[EVNow]

My analysis for how Waymo makes $1B in profit operating in 3 cities is this:

I'll reply with details when I get time. But here are some things to base your calculations on
- Total intra-city SF trips averaged 150k per day in 2017 for all ride-hailing services
- Uber drivers make about $15 to $20 per hour GROSS.

Those trips are just for SF. It is not counting all the trips they do in Phoenix.

So, why so less in SF ?

 

[diplomat33]

Wow, you expect them to get ~3.4M trips per day in just three cities? From a quick search Uber only gets ~19M trips per day worldwide.

It would require more than 3 cities. I am simply showing that a fleet of 50,000 robotaxis doing 68 trips/day/vehicle could achieve $1B in profit (with my other assumptions as caveats of course).

 

[diplomat33]

So, why so less in SF ?

Because they don't have their CPUC permit yet. Plus, they are validating some parts of SF. Not all parts of SF are public driverless rides.

 

[EVNow]

It would require more than 3 cities. I am simply showing that a fleet of 50,000 robotaxis doing 68 trips/day/vehicle could achieve $1B in profit (with my other assumptions as caveats of course).

LOL. Just above you said ...

and in my opinion, a fully scaled robotaxi service in Phoenix, SF and LA could make billions in profit.

Anyway, so basically you are saying if they do insane number of trips per day with 50,000 robotaxis they don't have - and operate in countless cities they can't - they will make good profit

 

[diplomat33]

I'll reply with details when I get time. But here are some things to base your calculations on
- Total intra-city SF trips averaged 150k per day in 2017 for all ride-hailing services
- Uber drivers make about $15 to $20 per hour GROSS.

I don't think we can simply use Uber numbers. Driverless cars will likely have very different profit margins and ride structure than an Uber. You don't have a human driver to pay but you do have remote assistance overhead, the tech adds cost to the car, but the driverless cars can drive more than an Uber driver etc...

 

[diplomat33]

Anyway, so basically you are saying if they do insane number of trips per day with 50,000 robotaxis they don't have - and operate in countless cities they can't - they will make good profit

I am just showing a possible scenario. If you don't think the scenario is realistic, fine. And no, Waymo does not have 50,000 robotaxis yet, or operating at scale in countless cities. If they did, they would already be making a profit! The whole point of everything Waymo is doing now is to try to get to scale as quickly as possible.

But I like said above, I personally believe that Waymo should license their tech in addition to robotaxis since I personally don't think robotaxis alone will achieve billions/year in a reasonable timeframe.

 

[diplomat33]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1628414827168407552

 

[Doggydogworld]

I'd definitely like to see some calculations on that !

You missed Elon's detailed financial model on Autonomy Day?

I read elsewhere Waymo got their CPUC permit near the end of the reporting period, so the 183 trips was actually something like 20/day.

Waymo said the 20k Jags they "ordered" could do a million trips per day. That's 50/day per car. Other statements imply they actually do about 50 trips per day TOTAL in Chandler. That was with 5-10 cars running simultaneously (rider support comment + observation) out of an "active fleet" of 25-30 (JJRicks vehicle tracking), so utilization was only a tiny fraction of their goal. That's why they re-directed to San Francisco.

Uber+Lyft did 170k rides/day entirely inside San Francisco before the pandemic. Add rides that start or end outside the city itself and it's probably 250k. Include the entire Bay Area and I'd guess 500k. So it's possible Bay Area + LA metro + Phoenix metro could approach 1m rides/day.

They're a long way from scaling up to entire metro areas, though. They have to handle highways and weather, they have to figure out how to attract enough riders to get utilization up and they need to get back office costs way down. Other than that they're ready to go, ha.

 

[EVNow]

I am just showing a possible scenario. If you don't think the scenario is realistic, fine.

Actually you agree it’s not realistic. You first said they can make billions running in 3 cities.

 

[diplomat33]

Actually you agree it’s not realistic. You first said they can make billions running in 3 cities.

And I am rolling back that comment because I realize now it was not realistic.

 

[jabloomf1230]

And I am rolling back that comment because I realize now it was not realistic.

I don't think that either yours or Elon's projections are realistic. What's the impetus for me to take an robotaxi over an Uber? Novelty value? Speed? Safety? Lower cost? I don't see the costs being competitive for years, possibly a decade or more.

I'm left with novelty value as the impetus for early adopters.

 

[diplomat33]

I don't either yours or Elon's projections are realistic. What's the impetus for me to take an robotaxi over an Uber? Novelty value? Speed? Safety? Lower cost? I don't see the costs being competitive for years, possibly a decade or more.

I'm left with novelty value as the impetus for early adopters.

Sure a case can be made that robotaxis are a "novelty" right now. But every tech was a novelty at first but eventually the tech becomes common place. There was a time when the iPhone was a novelty and now everyone has one or a similar smart phone. The same will happen with robotaxis. Costs will come down, safety will increase, convenience will increase, and over time, robotaxis will eventually replace traditional human driven ride-hailing. Eventually, every car will be driverless. Just because it has not happened yet, does not mean it won't. People need to have a more future perspective and not be so fixed on how things are today. Tech changes very fast.