Waymo

[jabloomf1230]

Sure a case can be made that robotaxis are a "novelty" right now. But every tech was a novelty at first but eventually the tech becomes common place. There was a time when the iPhone was a novelty and now everyone has one or a similar smart phone. The same will happen with robotaxis. Costs will come down, safety will increase, convenience will increase, and over time, robotaxis will eventually replace traditional human driven ride-hailing. Eventually, every car will be driverless. Just because it has not happened yet, does not mean it won't. People need to have a more future perspective and not be so fixed on how things are today. Tech changes very fast.

I have no disagreement with anything that you wrote. But the timing is the real issue for me. There were already portable cell phones when the iPhone was announced. The iPhone was just a better product. It was smaller, had a better display without a bunch of buttons and it incorporated features from the iPod media player. The equivalent robotaxi product would be a Tesla. Unfortunately, the FSD experiment hasn't gone as smoothly as Waymo's approach has. Both Google and Tesla are approaching the robotaxi technology from diametrically opposed endpoints. Waymo has developed a viable, limited geography option that is expensive. Tesla has developed an brute force option that the consumer can buy, that works anywhere in NA. Unfortunately, it isn't reliable.

Both approaches to developing robotaxis will probably succeed given enough time, assuming that each company stays the course. Technology does proceed quickly, but history is also littered with the carcasses of Blackberries, Laserdisc players, Betamax VCRs and 3D TVs.

 

[diplomat33]

I have no disagreement with anything that you wrote. But the timing is the real issue for me. There were already portable cell phones when the iPhone was announced. The iPhone was just a better product. It was smaller, had a better display without a bunch of buttons and it incorporated features from the iPod media player. The equivalent robotaxi product would be a Tesla. Unfortunately, the FSD experiment hasn't gone as smoothly as Waymo's approach has. Both Google and Tesla are approaching the robotaxi technology from diametrically opposed endpoints. Waymo has developed a viable, limited geography option that is expensive. Tesla has developed an brute force option that the consumer can buy, that works anywhere in NA. Unfortunately, it isn't reliable.

Both approaches to developing robotaxis will probably succeed given enough time, assuming that each company stays the course. Technology does proceed quickly, but history is also littered with the carcasses of Blackberries, Laserdisc players, Betamax VCRs and 3D TVs.

Yes there are techs that don't get past the novelty stage or don't last very long because either they don't provide additional value or better/cheaper tech replaces them. So, it is possible the current robotaxis like Waymo or Cruise will "fail" but are replaced with something better. Maybe someone finds a way to combine the Tesla and Waymo approaches into a better driverless car. In that case, that better driverless car could replace both Waymo and Tesla's FSD. We do eventually see better tech replace older tech, like DVDs replaced laser discs or the iPhone replaced the Blackberry. In fact, with how tech changes, it is very likely that the current Waymo robotaxis will be seen as primitive compared to the robotaxis in say 20 years from now.

But I think the real question is do we see enough potential value in driverless cars that pushing forward and solving the challenges is worth it. Personally, I would say yes. Driverless cars have the potential in making driving safer, providing transportation and independence to people who cannot drive like the elderly and the disabled, and giving people back time that they waste when driving. So they have great potential. So I think we should continue to develop the tech because once we do solve the issues, they can provide great value.

 

[diplomat33]

Waymo engineer explains how the Waymo Driver handles different intersection scenarios.

 

[diplomat33]

Big update from Waymo:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1629173926621499392

 

[Dewg]

Big update from Waymo:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1629173926621499392

Has there been any studies of public reaction to Waymo and Cruise (and Zoox) in those cities? Are the public excited, ambivalent, annoyed, or hating the expansion of AVs?

 

[diplomat33]

Has there been any studies of public reaction to Waymo and Cruise (and Zoox) in those cities? Are the public excited, ambivalent, annoyed, or hating the expansion of AVs?

I don't know about formal studies. I know Waymo does surveys but those are probably biased. I think the public reaction is probably all over the map (no pun intended). I think there is a vocal minority who is very excited (people who have taken rides in a Waymo or Cruise), a vocal minority who are annoyed or angry (people who are opposed to AVs in general) and the vast majority who are ambivalent because they have never even heard of Waymo or Cruise or have seen one pass by but don't really care or need to ride in a robotaxi.

 

[Bladerskb]

What happened to Lidar doesn't work in the Rain?

 

[diplomat33]

Those clips that Dolgov shared were very interesting. We see the Waymo handling rain but also backing up and turning around on its own when the road was blocked, handling detours and parallel parking. These are issues that come up that human drivers deal with but that robotaxis have struggled with in the past. I think these improvements will help reduce remote assistance interventions. This will really help with scaling.

 

[Doggydogworld]

Waymo engineer explains how the Waymo Driver handles different intersection scenarios.

"Let's Back Up" had me expecting three point turns.

What's the impetus for me to take an robotaxi over an Uber? Novelty value? Speed? Safety? Lower cost?

Cost and safety. Also many women aren't that comfortable hopping in a car with a random stranger. Or letting their kids use Uber/Lyft.

I don't see the costs being competitive for years, possibly a decade or more.

Competitive with Uber? Why would that be hard at scale?

 

[Supcom]

I don't know about formal studies. I know Waymo does surveys but those are probably biased. I think the public reaction is probably all over the map (no pun intended). I think there is a vocal minority who is very excited (people who have taken rides in a Waymo or Cruise), a vocal minority who are annoyed or angry (people who are opposed to AVs in general) and the vast majority who are ambivalent because they have never even heard of Waymo or Cruise or have seen one pass by but don't really care or need to ride in a robotaxi.

I would hazard a guess that the average person would be quite apprehensive about riding in a driverless automobile, and will be until the technology is well established. That's nothing against Waymo or Cruise, just human nature.

 

[EVNow]

What happened to Lidar doesn't work in the Rain?

What happenned to FSD doesn't work in rain ...

 

[EVNow]

Big update from Waymo:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1629173926621499392

Notice something interesting about these maps ? LOL ...

TNCs Today (2017)

This report provides the first comprehensive estimates of Uber and Lyft activity in the city.

www.sfcta.org

 

[diplomat33]

Notice something interesting about these maps ? LOL ...

View attachment 910846 View attachment 910847

TNCs Today (2017)

This report provides the first comprehensive estimates of Uber and Lyft activity in the city.

www.sfcta.org

This is not new. We all know Waymo is not doing the dense Uber parts YET. The operative word is "yet". They will do it. Those parts are more dense and more difficult driving. Waymo is starting with the easy parts first and then will do the harder parts later. Waymo will absolutely do the dense Uber parts, just a bit later.

 

[Daniel in SD]

Notice something interesting about these maps ? LOL ...

I bet Tesla Robotaxi will be deployed first in less challenging areas.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

I bet Tesla Robotaxi will be deployed first in less challenging areas.

I think my neighborhood is a good candidate and I am looking forward to starting the revenue stream. It is easier than the Waymo areas I think. No horses or flip phones for me!

 

[Daniel in SD]

I think my neighborhood is a good candidate and I am looking forward to starting the revenue stream. It is easier than the Waymo areas I think. No horses or flip phones for me!

I’m not paying to sit in the back of a legacy Model 3. Hopefully the Tesla Network will let me select a HW4 Model Y.

 

[enemji]

Waymo and Tesla FSD. They are like iOS and Android. One was stable from the start, the other was feature rich from the start. Now both are very similar in terms of features as well as stability.

 

[diplomat33]

Waymo and Tesla FSD. They are like iOS and Android. One was stable from the start, the other was feature rich from the start. Now both are very similar in terms of features as well as stability.

No they are not. Waymo Driver is much more rich in features, reliable and stable than FSD Beta. If they were so similar than Tesla FSD Beta would be able to do driverless and it can't. You cannot send a Tesla out with no driver around SF and have it pick up and drop off riders all day. You can with a Waymo. Tesla FSD still requires a human driver to supervise and intervene often because it is not stable or reliable enough for driverless. Tesla FSD is 5-10 years behind Waymo.

 

[Bladerskb]

What happenned to FSD doesn't work in rain ...

I see a driver...i'm not sure what you are getting at here?

Notice something interesting about these maps ? LOL ...

View attachment 910846 View attachment 910847

TNCs Today (2017)

This report provides the first comprehensive estimates of Uber and Lyft activity in the city.

www.sfcta.org

The map is showing both public and employee access. Employees (plus guests) have driverless 24/7 access to all of SF.
Its the light blue area on the map. So your point is void.

Plus we are maybe 2 months out before the public also has access to all of SF. This is an embarrassing grasp at straws.
Tesla on the other hand is driverless no where... a true LOL

 

[Bladerskb]

Waymo and Tesla FSD. They are like iOS and Android. One was stable from the start, the other was feature rich from the start. Now both are very similar in terms of features as well as stability.

Lol Tesla FSD still can't do half the things that Waymo cars can do in-addition to being driverless.
And they are not even close to being "as stable". If that were the case, Tesla would have deployed robot-taxi already and made billions..