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Waymo

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How much does Uber get?

I don't think we know that. We have to wait for the details of the business deal to be made public. But I imagine that Uber will get a % on each Waymo ride.

It is really a win-win for both companies IMO. Uber failed to develop their own autonomous driving. So Waymo brings their proven autonomous driving tech. By partnering with Waymo, Uber will be able to add autonomous ride-hailing to their revenue. In exchange, Waymo gets access to a proven nationwide ride-hailing app that will help them scale their business model.
 
I feel like this is newsworthy. Waymo is partnering with Uber. Later this year, Phoenix residents will be able to summon a Waymo ride from the Uber app. I feel like this will be a big step in Waymo scaling their ride-hailing since it will mean they can tap into all the existing Uber customers.


Yes an no. I think it's more a sign of their limitations. If they were really in a position to scale they wouldn't need Uber.
Similar to Tesla v The Rest with charging. Tesla could go it alone because they had the scaling ambition to do it.

However, I do think it's a good move as long as they are limited as it will boost ridership until they can scale.
 
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I don't think we know that. We have to wait for the details of the business deal to be made public. But I imagine that Uber will get a % on each Waymo ride.

It is really a win-win for both companies IMO. Uber failed to develop their own autonomous driving. So Waymo brings their proven autonomous driving tech. By partnering with Waymo, Uber will be able to add autonomous ride-hailing to their revenue. In exchange, Waymo gets access to a proven nationwide ride-hailing app that will help them scale their business model.

Uber will get some more rides, but there are really only two good outcomes for Uber:
(1) Autonomy doesn't happen
(2) An autonomous taxi company buys them out.
 
This quote from Waymo's Head of PR, in the Tech Crunch article, is interesting:

The collaboration with Uber gives Waymo’s self-driving technology a second path to commercialization. As Katherine Barna, head of PR at Waymo, told TechCrunch, Waymo is “building a Driver, not a vehicle.” That “driver-as-a-service” model is similarly how Waymo intends to commercialize autonomous trucks, and it means that the company can lease out its AV technology, rather than being the owner-operator of that technology.

I think the driver-as-a-service model could work really well for Waymo. They could generate extra revenue without all the operating costs of running a large fleet.
 
This quote from Waymo's Head of PR, in the Tech Crunch article, is interesting:

I think the driver-as-a-service model could work really well for Waymo. They could generate extra revenue without all the operating costs of running a large fleet.
Looks like an admission that they can't drum up more sales on their own.

Interestingly - a long time back (whe Elon first started talking about AVs) - Uber said they will buy all the Teslas if self-driving works. Elon said something like, we can run the service ourselves ;)

Now - Uber has a chance. They can buy the Waymo cars ;)

 
Looks like an admission that they can't drum up more sales on their own.
Yep. Their entire business model was "build it and they will come". They have no entrepreneurs, no sense of how to win a market and build a business.

Now - Uber has a chance. They can buy the Waymo cars ;)
Even better, they let Waymo buy the cars and manage the fleet. Uber just provides the app and collects their fee.

I think the driver-as-a-service model could work really well for Waymo. They could generate extra revenue without all the operating costs of running a large fleet.
This deal moves Waymo in the opposite direction. Uber is the asset-light service provider here. Waymo is behind the scenes, doing all the heavy lifting.

Anyone who thinks Waymo is on the verge of adding highways and scaling rapidly needs to smell the coffee. This is a go-slow deal.

Waymo One is a technical marvel, but not a viable business because most trips either start or end outside their small service area or require highway travel. Normal humans will not download a separate app for 5-10% of their trips. Waymo had two choices:

1. Become viable -- buy 10k Jaguars, add highways and expand to cover all of Phoenix metro. Take Uber/Lyft on head-to-head.
2. Stay small and grow cautiously

It's very expensive and risky to go big. They chose the safe and slow route. They always will -- it's who they are.
 
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1. Become viable -- buy 10k Jaguars, add highways and expand to cover all of Phoenix metro. Take Uber/Lyft on head-to-head.
...

IIRC, the purpose built Zeekr deliveries were expected to begin late this year.

As for how many Waymo deploys, I imagine that is entirely up to Cruise/GM as their expansion path (Origin deliveries also start end of 2023) is likely much more capital efficient. Waymo, however, cannot afford to fall behind in either fleet size or service area.

In short, Waymo will be responding quickly (months, not years) to moves GM makes. Customer-share and visibility of vehicles on the street will be more important than profits.
 
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