What Does the Sudden slow-down of the Supercharger Build Out Mean to the M3?

[Buddyroe]

I recall in March 2016 that Musk said Tesla would double the number of Superchargers by the end of 2017.

"By the end of next year, we will double the number of Superchargers and quadruple the number of Destination Chargers," Musk said at the Model 3 unveiling event on March 31.

Tesla's SuperCharging Network is Expanding Rapidly

However, when I checked the number of superchargers on March 31st (on supercharge.info - tho not official, VERY accurate), there were 607 supercharger stations worldwide. That would mean Tesla plans to have approximately 1200 open before the end of this year. But, as of today, there are only 843 - and of those, only 46 were opened in 2017. Only 18 were opened in the U.S.

Also, consider this. In the same article linked above (which was published on Sept 9, 2016), it reasoned by referencing the 2015 10-K and the number of SChrg stations at the time, that Tesla planned to have 884 superchargers by the end of 2016. Now, we are almost 4 months beyond 2016 and still are not at that number. In fact, based on the number that have opened so far this year, we will not hit the "end of 2016" number until the end of August. And to reach the "double" figure that Musk stated (~1200) would require another 2.5 years.

"So how's Tesla holding up on this expansion, so far? Today, Tesla has 4,311 Superchargers, located at 698 locations. While this isn't a bad start, it could be argued that the company is running behind. The most striking evidence that this is the case is that Tesla said in its 2015 10-K that it planned to "energize about 300 new Supercharger locations" in 2016. Tesla ended 2015 with 584 Supercharger locations; this would mean Tesla intended to end 2016 with nearly 884 locations."

I guess my question is - did Tesla decide that the number of SuperChargers they THOUGHT would be required for the M3 was too high and revised their plan - or will we not see ramped up production of the M3 until much later than we are all expecting?

The only other alternative to the 2 above is that Tesla plans to really increase the number of superchargers before the end of the year. But, it would require having 80 to 100 stations being build simultaneously through the rest of the year. I don't think I can recall ever seeing more than 25 to 30 being built world-wide at the same time. The number of known supercharger permit applications doesn't give any indication that the build-out is about to ramp-up (though, counting known permits it's not a perfect indicator, it has been pretty useful in the past to predict future construction).

Anyone have any thoughts on this? Does this have any bearing on the M3 release? Will we see the M3 rolled out like the X? Produce a handful in July for Tesla fans/friends and then no production for several months? And current owners. Are you worried about the West coast stations becoming more crowded than they already are?

 

[Az_Rael]

Musk might have meant supercharger stalls, not stations. They have been adding stalls to some crowded stations here in CA. New stations going in often have more stalls than the ones they used to put in as well.

So you might want to look at total stall counts if those numbers are anywhere.

 

[Buddyroe]

Musk might have meant supercharger stalls, not stations. They have been adding stalls to some crowded stations here in CA. New stations going in often have more stalls than the ones they used to put in as well.

So you might want to look at total stall counts if those numbers are anywhere.

I did look at it from that perspective also, but my post was already long and I didn't want to make it even longer. It's a good point and I did check, but it was hardly any different. Additionally, this is the last comment Musk made after the comment about doubling the number of superchargers:

"You will be able to go virtually anywhere."

So, the complete quote was:

"By the end of next year, we will double the number of Superchargers and quadruple the number of Destination Chargers. You will be able to go virtually anywhere."

Being able to go anywhere is about having stations in enough locations to provide for travel anywhere. Had he meant more stalls in existing stations, I would think his last statement would have been something like, "You will be able to access a supercharger with little to no wait."

 

[Derek Kessler]

While I'd like to be wrong, you shouldn't put any stock into Elon Musk's promises around timelines of any sort.

 

[jelloslug]

What slowdown?

 

[BluestarE3]

Plus, I don't think one should draw any direct correlation between Supercharger expansion and Model 3 production ramp-up.

 

[Haxster]

Being able to go anywhere is about having stations in enough locations to provide for travel anywhere. Had he meant more stalls in existing stations, I would think his last statement would have been something like, "You will be able to access a supercharger with little to no wait."

Yes, the "little to no wait" part. It's bad enough that a charge takes more planning and way more time than a gas fill-up, but having to wait 20-40 minutes just to get into a stall on a road trip is not good. And with a lot more Teslas hitting the streets, even less good.

 

[Buddyroe]

Plus, I don't think one should draw any direct correlation between Supercharger expansion and Model 3 production ramp-up.

Even if Musk elaborated on the charging network expansion during the M3 reveal? Obviously, he placed a direct correlation on the 2.

I guess you don't read all the complaints from West coast owners about having long waits for a stall - or the slow charging times due to so many cars charging at the same time. I'm sure owners are cringing thinking about tripling the number of cars at the existing charging stations over the next year. It will be a nightmare.

EDIT: Wow! Before I could even type my response, Haxster had already made my point.

 

[Buddyroe]

What slowdown?

Either you didn't read the post or you don't follow the supercharger build out closely (or both). Nonetheless, I will provide this for you:

In the last 4 months of 2016, Tesla opened 104 stations. Year to date 2017, Tesla has opened 46 stations. Sound like a slowdown to you? And at a time when they are supposing to be building MORE (ie, ramping UP the build-out).

No disrespect, but I have to wonder if people just post on their "feelings" or what they "think" is reality, instead of actually checking the facts.

 

[BluestarE3]

Even if Musk elaborated on the charging network expansion during the M3 reveal? Obviously, he placed a direct correlation on the 2.

I guess you don't read all the complaints from West coast owners about having long waits for a stall - or the slow charging times due to so many cars charging at the same time. I'm sure owners are cringing thinking about tripling the number of cars at the existing charging stations over the next year. It will be a nightmare.

EDIT: Wow! Before I could even type my response, Haxster had already made my point.

I'll be charging at home when I get my Model 3, so I'm not counting on having a Supercharger nearby to refuel. I suspect a fair number of other Model 3 reservation holders will be doing the same most of the time.

 

[Buddyroe]

I'll be charging at home when I get my Model 3, so I'm not counting on having a Supercharger nearby to refuel. I suspect a fair number of other Model 3 reservation holders will be doing the same most of the time.

SuperChargers are not intended for local driving, they are for when you travel. Charging at home is how EVERYONE should charge, IF they are able to. Nonetheless, that has no bearing on superchargers and their need. You can bet there will be TONS of people traveling in their M3 - which will require more charging station stalls, and more locations.

EDIT: Note the verbiage that Haxster, a current owner, said in his post - "but having to wait 20-40 minutes just to get into a stall on a road trip is not good". You're going to have a hard time charging at home if you are 200 miles or more away.

 

[Sonny Daze]

What slowdown?

In the US, 83 news stations Q2 through Q4 last year; 14 new stations in Q1 2017.

 

[JHuberman]

Either you didn't read the post or you don't follow the supercharger build out closely (or both). Nonetheless, I will provide this for you:

In the last 4 months of 2016, Tesla opened 104 stations. Year to date 2017, Tesla has opened 46 stations. Sound like a slowdown to you? And at a time when they are supposing to be building MORE (ie, ramping UP the build-out).

No disrespect, but I have to wonder if people just post on their "feelings" or what they "think" is reality, instead of actually checking the facts.

I'm not sure what you mean by "slow down". If you look at the rate of expansion quarter by quarter over the last 2 years has the rate of expansion actually slowed down in the last 2 quarters? Or is it just that it doesn't look like the target will be reached?

 

[David99]

This subject gets discussed frequently here and it shows that people really think it's an important issue. I have done many long road trips in my Tesla. More than 60k miles just on road trips alone using only Superchargers. I know how important the network is and honestly it is scary to envision the M3 flooding the market without the Supercharger network being built out accordingly.

Yes in some remote regions there is already plenty of Supercharger capacity to handle the M3 rush. Many of the Superchargers in remote areas I visited (over 60 total) are always empty. But those locations that are serving the busiest areas are already at capacity today.

This isn't a issue of locals charging there, it's just an issue of numbers. For example the drive from LA to Phoenix. I have been doing this trip since the day I got my Tesla 3 years ago. There was virtually no one else. Here and there maybe one other car. Today, all stations are always busy. Tesla has just been selling cars like crazy and they have not been increasing the Superchargers in the same way.

 

[jelloslug]

In the US, 83 news stations Q2 through Q4 last year; 14 new stations in Q1 2017.

There are currently 22 under permit or construction in the US right now and those are just the locations that people know about.

 

[jelloslug]

Either you didn't read the post or you don't follow the supercharger build out closely (or both). Nonetheless, I will provide this for you:

In the last 4 months of 2016, Tesla opened 104 stations. Year to date 2017, Tesla has opened 46 stations. Sound like a slowdown to you? And at a time when they are supposing to be building MORE (ie, ramping UP the build-out).

No disrespect, but I have to wonder if people just post on their "feelings" or what they "think" is reality, instead of actually checking the facts.

If you follow supercharger buildouts at all you would know that 1st quarter is always slow.

 

[JonathanDandrea]

It would make sense to slow build out V2 chargers if the 350kw+ V3 chargers were close to being ready. For every stall you could halve the charge time you would effectively be adding an additional stall. Much more efficient way to add capacity to the network. Just a theory

 

[stopcrazypp]

Either you didn't read the post or you don't follow the supercharger build out closely (or both). Nonetheless, I will provide this for you:

In the last 4 months of 2016, Tesla opened 104 stations. Year to date 2017, Tesla has opened 46 stations. Sound like a slowdown to you? And at a time when they are supposing to be building MORE (ie, ramping UP the build-out).

No disrespect, but I have to wonder if people just post on their "feelings" or what they "think" is reality, instead of actually checking the facts.

This reminds me of seasonal factors. It usually does not make sense to look at quarters subsequently but rather separated by 1 year to control for seasonal factors. For example, Q1 2016 vs Q1 2017. Recently it had been raining a lot in California.

 

[jelloslug]

This reminds me of seasonal factors. It usually does not make sense to look at quarters subsequently but rather separated by 1 year to control for seasonal factors. For example, Q1 2016 vs Q1 2017. Recently it had been raining a lot in California.

In the US it was 11 for Q1 in 2016 vs 14 for Q1 in 2017.

 

[stopcrazypp]

In the US it was 11 for Q1 in 2016 vs 14 for Q1 in 2017.

Thanks for the data. That doesn't look like a slowdown to me.