What happened to the Model X

[Merrill]

The one shown in 2013 was different than the one shown in early 2012. It had side mirrors instead of cameras and a slightly different interior, and was supposed to be closer to the final design than the original prototype. This is the white one that has been featured at various events an on TV since then. Of course, it's expected now that the production model has evolved significantly from even that design, so who knows how much of it will carry over.

I will be very disappointed if the Model X is not at NAIAS. Not only because I am looking forward to seeing it up close, but because until the beta makes a public debut it makes you question whether Tesla can meet even their revised Q3 first delivery schedule. You can't do all your testing indoors or at night, so it has to show up on the road sometime if they are really making progress on proving the design.

I agree, if they just show the S and the D I will be disappointed. The exterior of both these cars are identical and even though the D is Insane, they need the X on display.

 

[bonnie]

I'm sure Tesla has a full reveal strategy planned. Can't wait to see it all unfold.

 

[Nubo]

If they were worried about sales, I'd agree with you. But considering that they're sold out for first year of production ... doesn't seem like much of an issue.

One thing that gives me pause is that they really don't seem to be worried about sales and have talked in terms of actively discouraging Model X reservations. Do they really want to produce this car? It's hard to tell sometimes. Makes me worry about how enthusiastically they'll be supporting it.

 

[JST]

One thing that gives me pause is that they really don't seem to be worried about sales and have talked in terms of actively discouraging Model X reservations. Do they really want to produce this car? It's hard to tell sometimes. Makes me worry about how enthusiastically they'll be supporting it.

I am not worried about them supporting the car. I am sure that they will do so.

Bonnie's point is well-taken--when you have sold your first year out, you don't need to advertise. More than that, you don't *want* to advertise, because you'll likely just end up with a bunch of frustrated customers. See, eg, the P85D delivery threads.

Of course, there are some very legitimate questions about where the X is at this point in terms of development. I get that Tesla wants to stick to its reveal strategy, and that's fine...but not having a production ready car to show to the public at this point does lead me to wonder whether they are going to hit the current deadline.

 

[AlMc]

I don't see an X reveal at the NAIAS. TM has always had a reveal for the 'faithful':biggrin: before general reveal. I was hoping for a 'New Year's eve surprise' bicoastal reveal but too short a time frame now. So, it is probably Feb/March. EM had commented at one time that he wanted to test the limits of demand on the S in 2014 and could not. The S is doing so well (nice margins) that there is no need to push out the X.
IMO, that is the reason for no X reveal. Additional possibilities: Waiting for some real world testing of the AWD in the 'D' class S; waiting for Feds to allow cameras versus mirrors; maybe even a bigger battery pack.

So, no X at the NAIAS. My 'off the wall thought'. How about a prototype for the model3.....That would bring down the house.

 

[markb1]

The S is doing so well (nice margins) that there is no need to push out the X.
IMO, that is the reason for no X reveal.

I disagree. They do need to push out the X, because they say they are going to ship it next year. They need to reveal it before they start taking orders, for sure. If they don't reveal it very soon, then I have to question whether the release date has slipped yet again, and I don't think I will be the only one. Expect the investors to freak out of there is no Model X reveal at or before NAIAS.

 

[gg_got_a_tesla]

An interesting tidbit for all ye X faithful that I heard from a couple of delivery folks when picking up my S at the factory today: they both mentioned that they've seen new X protos coming off the line that look not much like the original X proto at all; the new units are fabulous-looking and will blow folks away (their words).

 

[TexasEV]

I disagree. They do need to push out the X, because they say they are going to ship it next year. They need to reveal it before they start taking orders, for sure. If they don't reveal it very soon, then I have to question whether the release date has slipped yet again, and I don't think I will be the only one. Expect the investors to freak out of there is no Model X reveal at or before NAIAS.

So let the investors freak out. Tesla needs to do what's best for it's long term goals and not worry about quarterly numbers, or week to week changes in the stock price. That's what's wrong with some publicly traded companies. It's actually a shame Tesla couldn't have stayed private like SpaceX.

Revealing at the Detroit Auto Show (which is what it is, even if it has a more grandiose title) is playing Detroit's game. Tesla doesn't need to play Detroit's game.

 

[ecarfan]

@gg, thanks for sharing that news! Very good to hear. I have no interest in owning an X but as a shareholder and Tesla supporter I certainly want it to be a huge success. My money is still on one of those X prototypes being at the NAIAS

An interesting tidbit for all ye X faithful that I heard from a couple of delivery folks when picking up my S at the factory today: they both mentioned that they've seen new X protos coming off the line that look not much like the original X proto at all; the new units are fabulous-looking and will blow folks away (their words).

 

[markb1]

So let the investors freak out. Tesla needs to do what's best for it's long term goals and not worry about quarterly numbers, or week to week changes in the stock price. That's what's wrong with some publicly traded companies. It's actually a shame Tesla couldn't have stayed private like SpaceX.

I think it's a legitimate problem if Tesla continues to slip their dates, though. Tesla is the one who set the expectations in the first place.

 

[AlMc]

I disagree. They do need to push out the X, because they say they are going to ship it next year. They need to reveal it before they start taking orders, for sure. If they don't reveal it very soon, then I have to question whether the release date has slipped yet again, and I don't think I will be the only one. Expect the investors to freak out of there is no Model X reveal at or before NAIAS.

If other investors do freak out I will be buying their shares. I am confident I will be driving an X in the 3rd or 4th Q of 2015 and that Founders will be getting their by the end of Q2/early Q3. I am anxious to be at the X reveal but I am not concerned if it is not at the NAIAS.

 

[Red Sage]

Assuming you're not being sarcastic (and I can't tell)...

Well, no. I was perfectly sincere. I'm usually a bit more obvious when I'm being sarcastic. ;-)

...then for me: "YES" -- it is way too much to ask to have faith and emotion over reason and evidence.

Sorry you feel this way. Really. Personally, I reserve my pessimism for the notion that traditional automobile manufacturers will be able to 'steal' the electric car market from under Tesla Motors 'anytime they want' as some say.

I just don't see any way Tesla can deliver the Model 3 two years from now with the battery factory barely started and the backlog for batteries with the Model S reservations and soon to be Model X (of which there are currently over 20k!).

Oh, there's a way for it to work. Cars aren't really that hard to build once the design is complete, quality assurance has worked out bugs, and the supply line is in place. I see the path toward Tesla Motors' success clearly.

The biggest supply issue has always been batteries. When Tesla Motors and Panasonic banged out a revised deal for 18650 battery cells earlier this year, a lot of that was handled. To fulfill the need that Tesla projected, Panasonic must build out more capacity at their Japanese plant. It was that knowledge that caused them to say, "No." to Tesla's initial request last year. Tesla had to commit toward paying Panasonic's build-out costs, along with accepting and paying for the battery cells, even if it was determined their need would be lower than projected.

But Tesla knows full well they will need every single one of them. There will be no scaling back of orders. If anything, the Model X will be so popular that this time next year Tesla will be begging Panasonic for even more batteries.

It was this agreement that led to the reconfiguration of the Fremont facility, in preparation for ramping up production of Model S.

I have long thought the Model S would be set to around 50,000 units annual production as a maximum, at Fremont. Worldwide demand for Model S can probably support more than that. But this is a flagship vehicle, not the mass market car. As long as territories are satisfied with a 3-6 month wait time, that level of production should suffice without enhancement. Still, I'm sure Elon Musk would like to see the wait dropped to no more than 3 months. I believe that will eventually lead to a factory in China manufacturing Model S.

I believe that the assembly line at Fremont is currently running at a fraction of its theoretical maximum build rate. Currently being used to produce around 1,000 Model S per week, the same line will also assemble Model X. They will be interleaved with each other while the speed of assembly is gradually increased to 2,000 per week, a 1:1 ratio between them, by the end of 2015.

I believe that is only the beginning. I really believe the Model X will be a runaway hit. It will be popular among people with growing families, Hollywood starlets, hardcore rappers, and boulevard posers. Long after any fad-like accolades may fade, the Model X will remain a mainstay of shuttle, livery, and taxi companies. And like the high-end SUVs of other marques, which outsell their sedan counterparts, the Model X will grow into a 3:1 sales advantage over the Model S in short order.

If I am correct, this means that by the time Model ≡ is released, the Model X will be on pace to move 150,000 units per year worldwide. The high visibility of the Model X will make Tesla Motors a household name. And when the public gets wind of the Model ≡ there will be an avalanche of interest. The waiting list will grow from six months, to nine, then explode to two years practically overnight.

Luckily, the Gigafactory will have come online early. Battery packs for Model ≡ will begin production ahead of the cars, and stockpiled. That will allow tens of thousands to be delivered within the first six months. The ramp up will be the fastest Tesla Motors has ever managed, and will thoroughly amaze automotive pundits the world over.

And I'll be first in line to get mine.

 

[killer_model_s]

Well, no. I was perfectly sincere. I'm usually a bit more obvious when I'm being sarcastic. ;-)


Sorry you feel this way. Really. Personally, I reserve my pessimism for the notion that traditional automobile manufacturers will be able to 'steal' the electric car market from under Tesla Motors 'anytime they want' as some say.


Oh, there's a way for it to work. Cars aren't really that hard to build once the design is complete, quality assurance has worked out bugs, and the supply line is in place. I see the path toward Tesla Motors' success clearly.

The biggest supply issue has always been batteries. When Tesla Motors and Panasonic banged out a revised deal for 18650 battery cells earlier this year, a lot of that was handled. To fulfill the need that Tesla projected, Panasonic must build out more capacity at their Japanese plant. It was that knowledge that caused them to say, "No." to Tesla's initial request last year. Tesla had to commit toward paying Panasonic's build-out costs, along with accepting and paying for the battery cells, even if it was determined their need would be lower than projected.

But Tesla knows full well they will need every single one of them. There will be no scaling back of orders. If anything, the Model X will be so popular that this time next year Tesla will be begging Panasonic for even more batteries.

It was this agreement that led to the reconfiguration of the Fremont facility, in preparation for ramping up production of Model S.

I have long thought the Model S would be set to around 50,000 units annual production as a maximum, at Fremont. Worldwide demand for Model S can probably support more than that. But this is a flagship vehicle, not the mass market car. As long as territories are satisfied with a 3-6 month wait time, that level of production should suffice without enhancement. Still, I'm sure Elon Musk would like to see the wait dropped to no more than 3 months. I believe that will eventually lead to a factory in China manufacturing Model S.

I believe that the assembly line at Fremont is currently running at a fraction of its theoretical maximum build rate. Currently being used to produce around 1,000 Model S per week, the same line will also assemble Model X. They will be interleaved with each other while the speed of assembly is gradually increased to 2,000 per week, a 1:1 ratio between them, by the end of 2015.

I believe that is only the beginning. I really believe the Model X will be a runaway hit. It will be popular among people with growing families, Hollywood starlets, hardcore rappers, and boulevard posers. Long after any fad-like accolades may fade, the Model X will remain a mainstay of shuttle, livery, and taxi companies. And like the high-end SUVs of other marques, which outsell their sedan counterparts, the Model X will grow into a 3:1 sales advantage over the Model S in short order.

If I am correct, this means that by the time Model ≡ is released, the Model X will be on pace to move 150,000 units per year worldwide. The high visibility of the Model X will make Tesla Motors a household name. And when the public gets wind of the Model ≡ there will be an avalanche of interest. The waiting list will grow from six months, to nine, then explode to two years practically overnight.

Luckily, the Gigafactory will have come online early. Battery packs for Model ≡ will begin production ahead of the cars, and stockpiled. That will allow tens of thousands to be delivered within the first six months. The ramp up will be the fastest Tesla Motors has ever managed, and will thoroughly amaze automotive pundits the world over.

And I'll be first in line to get mine.

It's now abundantly clear (particularly in context of the P85D range issues) that the reason the Model X is continuously delayed is due to its inability to generate sufficient range with a 85kwh battery. It's not Falcon Wing Doors that are holding back any reveal of the Model X - it's the fact that any reveal would also have to answer any questions of range. Heavier setup, dual motors, increased drag, etc etc all significantly bring down the range and it's questionable whether a Model X would have enough range to make it from SC to SC with a 85kwh setup.

I'm afraid that unless Tesla can come out with new battery technology (i.e. same weight battery with higher energy output), they will not reveal the Model X anytime soon. I would wager that any Model X reveal will come along with an announcement of a higher kWh battery at the same time.

 

[AnxietyRanger]

It's now abundantly clear (particularly in context of the P85D range issues) that the reason the Model X is continuously delayed is due to its inability to generate sufficient range with a 85kwh battery. It's not Falcon Wing Doors that are holding back any reveal of the Model X - it's the fact that any reveal would also have to answer any questions of range. Heavier setup, dual motors, increased drag, etc etc all significantly bring down the range and it's questionable whether a Model X would have enough range to make it from SC to SC with a 85kwh setup.

I'm afraid that unless Tesla can come out with new battery technology (i.e. same weight battery with higher energy output), they will not reveal the Model X anytime soon. I would wager that any Model X reveal will come along with an announcement of a higher kWh battery at the same time.

Range and related materials etc. work is probably a part of the issue, likely not the full issue. Even falcon wings can play into that, as judging by the photos making those lighter (and thus the car lighter) seems to have been one of the things Tesla has busied themselves with. I doubt there is any showstoppers there, just more work to get all the pieces finalized than Tesla had anticipated. It is also perfectly possible thing like the rear-seat convenience features and falcon wing reliability are amongst the reasons for delays. Model X is expected to have plenty of new stuff, like the new steering wheel etc etc, any combination of these things may be behind the delay. There is hardly evidence to conclude that a particular one thing is the sole reason.

If there were show-stopper range issues with the dual-motor approach, I doubt we would have seen the 85/P85D yet. Perhaps they will indeed skip the 60 kWh option and some range questions probably are still open (or have been very recently), as evidenced by Elon Musk's disappearing tweets, but to go from that to "they will not reveal the Model X anytime soon" seems excessive. I doubt there will be any additional delays to the Model X launch, I would expect it to fall in line with the previous investor letter info.

 

[bonnie]

It's now abundantly clear (particularly in context of the P85D range issues) that the reason the Model X is continuously delayed is due to its inability to generate sufficient range with a 85kwh battery. It's not Falcon Wing Doors that are holding back any reveal of the Model X - it's the fact that any reveal would also have to answer any questions of range. Heavier setup, dual motors, increased drag, etc etc all significantly bring down the range and it's questionable whether a Model X would have enough range to make it from SC to SC with a 85kwh setup.

No, it's not 'abundantly clear'. To you perhaps, but c'mon ... that's speculation. And it's more than fine to speculate, but I disagree with your certainty. Unless you have some inside info?

On the other hand, since you are offering to wager & you did state it wouldn't be revealed 'anytime soon' - what's the bet?

 

[ecarfan]

It's now abundantly clear (particularly in context of the P85D range issues) that the reason the Model X is continuously delayed is due to its inability to generate sufficient range with a 85kwh battery.

Reading these forums for the past 15 months I continue to be surprised at the remarkable number of posts in various topics where people claim to have extraordinary insight and knowledge about the inner workings of Tesla that then lead them to reach conclusions with such high levels of certainty.

 

[killer_model_s]

No, it's not 'abundantly clear'. To you perhaps, but c'mon ... that's speculation. And it's more than fine to speculate, but I disagree with your certainty. Unless you have some inside info?

On the other hand, since you are offering to wager & you did state it wouldn't be revealed 'anytime soon' - what's the bet?

Yes, sorry for the implied certainty. It's abundantly clear to me, based on initial experiences that P85D owners have, that range is what's holding back Model X. I would speculate that ~20% reduction in rated range due to dual motors, size, weight, drag, etc. bringing the EPA rating to at or below 200 miles is a marketing nightmare for Tesla. Imagine the disappointment of X res holders. If I am right however, I cannot imagine a Model X reveal without a simultaneous reveal of a bigger (i.e. more energy output) battery.

 

[bonnie]

But ... no bet? Sooo disappointed.

 

[killer_model_s]

Reading these forums for the past 15 months I continue to be surprised at the remarkable number of posts in various topics where people claim to have extraordinary insight and knowledge about the inner workings of Tesla that then lead them to reach conclusions with such high levels of certainty.

I have absolutely no insider knowledge of Tesla's inner workings whatsoever, but sometimes the facts are right in front of our eyes and we can chose to draw our conclusions or ignore them altogether.

My question then becomes: Do you believe Tesla can possibly engineer the Model X to have similar range in a dual motor setup as the Model S P85D? If not, do you believe Tesla would reveal a Model X with less than 200 miles of rated range (again, pure speculation on what the range of the Model X would be)? My speculation is that the answer to both of those questions is an emphatic NO.

- - - Updated - - -

But ... no bet? Sooo disappointed.

You're likely to be more disappointed if I am right.

 

[bluenation]

i, too, thought the delay was purely a business decision

then the p85d range issue came up....now im going "hmmm..."