I'm extremely confused on how much TMC has dropped. I bought in for the long play, but come on.....hahaha.
In my news feed on the stocks I own there are stories from one of those law firms that tries to build class action lawsuits against companies for lying to stockholders. I saw it back in May and June with Array which makes equipment for commercial solar arrays. Their earnings call in May was lower than expected because the steel shortage was hurting them. The lawyers were trying to build a case that management hadn't disclosed their problems sourcing steel and that was the basis for a class action. The cases went nowhere and the stock went back up. I bought more near the bottom and I have a decent profit now.
I forget what the lawyers are claiming about TMC, but it looks even weaker than the case against Array. The short interest was very high with TMC for a while, but it's been dropping. I expect that when the class action doesn't work TMC will recover. I have an order in for another buy if it goes down a bit more. I figure if it gets stuck at $5 I'll be in the black.
TMC is a long term play. It's going to take a while before they're producing ore. They just started outfitting the mining ship a month or so back. Once they get the kinks worked out it should be incredibly cheap ore to mine. They just have to get it off the seabed and then they have one of the richest ores to process on the planet. Those orbs are almost pure marketable metals.
They have a proof of concept that worked, but there are always teething problems when something like this gets scaled up. I expect it will be at least a year before production numbers are good. Probably more like 2. At that point it could easily go up into the $20-$50 range and stay there.
I would never invest in that thing but I wouldn't bet against it either. Trump became POS because Obama insulted him during some speech he gave. If Trump can achieve the highest office, motivated by a vendetta, what can he do against Facebook and Twitter? This could be interesting.
It's one thing to play political games in a volatile political climate against a very unliked opponent (Hillary Clinton), but it's another thing to beat out another company in their core business when they are the established leader without a "killer app". The best anybody can realistically hope for in that climate is to carve out a niche.
Tesla was able to get a definite nose under the tent flap by making technologically superior cars. They may be one of the world's largest car makers someday, but right now they produce tiny volumes compared to the leaders. They still aren't in the top 20.
Facebook did push out MySpace, but they did it by being a flexible competitor in a market that was not yet defined at a time when MySpace had been bought by NewsCorp was was being run like an old, media outlet rather than a tech platform. Facebook was there when the leader stumbled and they had the ability to keep users engaged.
Facebook's empire is far from fossilized. I personally think Facebook is a terrible place and avoid it as much as possible, but I do have an account because there are people and groups who I can only find there. For those who don't want to be on Facebook they have other social media platforms too.
Pushing Facebook out at this point is going to be virtually impossible unless somebody thinks of something new that becomes the new killer app. And a politicized platform is not going to get anywhere near the numbers needed to challenge Facebook. To start with a little more than 1/2 the US population won't go anywhere near any Trump project and that number goes up in most other countries.
With the screw ups they've already had in just the first few days, it's obvious that the crew running the site are not exactly elite. Any site with any controversy around it needs the best security available and even then hackers will get through. Companies like Facebook, Twitter, Yahoo, etc. do have the best security available and they have all had some kind of hack.
A highly political social media website associated with one of the most controversial political figures on the planet is going to be drawing in every hacker who isn't solidly in their camp to, at minimum, get bragging rights and probably get any data they can while they're there.
I once knew a guy who had been a Silicon Valley security expert. Last I heard from him he had semi-retired and was doing security consulting after marrying a Canadian and moving there. He was a professional paranoid. It takes a degree of paranoia to be a top security guy in that business. I'm sure Trump's company doesn't have them, good ones are very expensive and he never pays top dollar for anything.
I expect his social media platform will be plagued with technical problems, if it ever gets up and running. Between probably incompetent admins running it and a huge number of hackers gunning for them, they don't stand a chance.
He also thinks he can take on Disney+ and Netflix? The streaming market is over crowded now. I expect several well backed streaming platforms are going to merge in the near future. If they don't outright merge, they will form partnerships to have one login provide content from several sources. AT&T is spinning off Warner and merging with Discovery right now to try and compete. A loan streaming platform might be able to compete if it had some exclusive content people wanted, but it would have to be very high demand content and anything Trump has to offer probably isn't.
The US has become extremely politicized, but the actual people who care is really fairly small. The US has something like 330 million people, but the political news channels get less than 5 million viewers a day (left and right). I was looking at a site that looked at media bias and the bulk of online news consumers read the most politically neutral sites. The number of views the more partisan news sites get is a tiny fraction (less than 10%) of the traffic the neutral sites get. There is a lot of noise about political news, but the consumer base is small and any new source is going to just be pirating audience from another similar source.
I don't expect this company to go anywhere. But as a short term meme stock, there is money to be made with the right timing. Meme stocks take a different mind set than long range stocks. To make money in meme stocks, you need to read the mood of the herd and time your moves right. It's more like playing poker than stock analysis.