Rifleman
Now owns 2 Model S's!!!
I own a little bit of ONVO. I agree that it is a big return or loose everything stock, there will not be anything in between.
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What other tech stock to consider?
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I own a little bit of ONVO. I agree that it is a big return or loose everything stock, there will not be anything in between.
stealthology
Member
I did a bit of research into ONVO, but it seemed to me like they're still at least a decade away from any major breakthrough, at least without financial assistance from the government. I'm not in the industry, and I didn't really dig very deep though..
Unrelated: I picked up 5k shares of NAVB today. I'm hearing from many different sources about their potential, including a doctor I met this past weekend who works at NIH. A decent bit of NAVB bulls on SeekingAlpha as well.
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borat99
Member
Thanks. I just looked into NAVB a bit. It's kinda like ONVO like you either win all or lose all. I guess the next major stock movement will be around their Q3 earnings call, right?
I am tempted to get in CREE and I probably will after Tesla earnings. I need to do more research but It seems like they are setting themselves up really nicely for a long term buy and hold strategy. I will not pick up a large position without a lot more research into it.
Anyone follow PLUG ? My brother follows another investment forum and they liked it so I started following news on it. They recently had a round of funding that went really well and had significant insiders buying so I picked up 1000 shares (at about .59) cents each so my investment is very small but I was curious if anyone knows this company well.
mershaw2001
I'm short the short sellers
I was considering cree, and actually held it for a dollar gain this week. However, here is my counter argument. They are selling lightbulbs that are significantly better than the competition. They sell a 6 watt, 60-watt equivalent bulb for 12.99. The best competition can do is a 13 watt 60-watt equivalent. So, almost twice as bad. However, the price is 5.99. To me, lightbulbs are commodities and differentiation is not going to send cree skyrocketing. I go to the grocery store and get a lightbulb. If there's one that will replace my current 60 watt bulb for 5.99 or 12.99, i don't really care too much about the wattage its using if it's under a certain level, let's say 15 watts. I mean, on some level, consumers care more about price than actual stats. Now, with that said, the perks of cree are its balance sheet (from my understanding they have absolutely no debt) and they are a leader.
If someone can come up with a reason to own it that trumps my commodities argument, I'd probably buy back in.
If someone can come up with a reason to own it that trumps my commodities argument, I'd probably buy back in.
The thing about Cree is you are betting on the future. Dont just look at the home buyer market, look more broadly. Governments are on a big eco "green" spending spree (well not so much anymore because economy failing, but when it recovers spending will go back to green tech) I am not looking for Cree to make most of their money in the home owners sector, and this has been pointed out on SA, its not a huge% for them the product i waiting to take off is their $99 street lamp bulb. It uses FAR less power then a conventional halogen bulb. Then add on top of that the solar street lamps now being produced (my friend's father's company Eagle 1 produces some Eagle-1) then i am looking at a double win with my solar stocks on top of that. LED and Solar have to work together because solar cant supply enough energy for the big halogen bulbs and LEDs were not bright enough to be a street lamp. Now both techs are getting better and i would not be surprised to see a big revenue coming to Cree and the solar section once the world economy recovers.
Another sector is car lighting. Not just the very popular interior lighting but car headlamps. No not the fancy DRLs around BMWs and Audi headlight, the actual part that lights up the road. Lexus, Audi and others have played with LEDs to replace HIDs and they are getting there, the cost to power output compared to HIDs is still not there yet but once it is its another revenue stream for Cree. Lexus uses 3 LEDs per headlight, making 6 per car, apply that to 85million cars a year, at $5 a dye, that is $2.55billion a year market potential. This might take longer to happen though since HIDs commonly run on 35watts which is already pretty low and they have great output for that amount of power. But if Tesla and other EVs are going to want more range, LEDs are going to have to be the sole source of lighting in those vehicles.
Being and LED nerd and electronics engineer i have used Cree MC-E dyes ($15 a dye, I used $5 above for bulk order) and produced some massively bright Fog lights for my car and a few other people i know. My fogs were running at 45watts each which is 10watts over the HIDs, but that 10watts was well worth the extra output. My "Fog" lights are so bright you cant even tell the HID headlights are on, which is why i barely even use them now. But if a guy in his garage can produce a mind boggling output fog light for $100 I am sure the auto industry is not far behind. I cant prove this but by my math my LED Fogs were producing twice the lumens that my headlights were (by the individual math of what each MC-E dye is suppose to output, i didnt have a light meter to prove my numbers)
Cree is a pure buy and hold long play, no buts about it. This last dip was just the perfect buy in opportunity and its already recovered nearly $8
Eventually when the economy recovers you will also see home owners be more willing to spend more on better bulbs, but once again i think the home owner sector is peanuts to the other sectors Cree focuses on.
Another sector is car lighting. Not just the very popular interior lighting but car headlamps. No not the fancy DRLs around BMWs and Audi headlight, the actual part that lights up the road. Lexus, Audi and others have played with LEDs to replace HIDs and they are getting there, the cost to power output compared to HIDs is still not there yet but once it is its another revenue stream for Cree. Lexus uses 3 LEDs per headlight, making 6 per car, apply that to 85million cars a year, at $5 a dye, that is $2.55billion a year market potential. This might take longer to happen though since HIDs commonly run on 35watts which is already pretty low and they have great output for that amount of power. But if Tesla and other EVs are going to want more range, LEDs are going to have to be the sole source of lighting in those vehicles.
Being and LED nerd and electronics engineer i have used Cree MC-E dyes ($15 a dye, I used $5 above for bulk order) and produced some massively bright Fog lights for my car and a few other people i know. My fogs were running at 45watts each which is 10watts over the HIDs, but that 10watts was well worth the extra output. My "Fog" lights are so bright you cant even tell the HID headlights are on, which is why i barely even use them now. But if a guy in his garage can produce a mind boggling output fog light for $100 I am sure the auto industry is not far behind. I cant prove this but by my math my LED Fogs were producing twice the lumens that my headlights were (by the individual math of what each MC-E dye is suppose to output, i didnt have a light meter to prove my numbers)
Cree is a pure buy and hold long play, no buts about it. This last dip was just the perfect buy in opportunity and its already recovered nearly $8
Eventually when the economy recovers you will also see home owners be more willing to spend more on better bulbs, but once again i think the home owner sector is peanuts to the other sectors Cree focuses on.
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Rifleman
Now owns 2 Model S's!!!
Earlier this month I took a moderate position in sapphire-glass maker GT Advanced Technologies - symbol GTAT. It's been climbing out of a deep hole (is one of the most heavily shorted names out there - sound familiar? 
), and in the past few days has been roaring as one of the market's best performers, being one of the purported beneficiaries of both the new iPhone as well as other phone, etc., display screen users.
), and in the past few days has been roaring as one of the market's best performers, being one of the purported beneficiaries of both the new iPhone as well as other phone, etc., display screen users.
New Iphone tear down reveals the new motion chip is made by NXP Semiconductor. (I bought some at $37.9)
A7 Processor Manufactured by Samsung, M7 is Standalone Processor From NXP - Mac Rumors
Apples M7 Motion Sensing Coprocessor Is The Wizard Behind The Curtain For The iPhone 5s | TechCrunch
NXPI: Summary for NXP Semiconductors N.V.- Yahoo! Finance
A7 Processor Manufactured by Samsung, M7 is Standalone Processor From NXP - Mac Rumors
Apples M7 Motion Sensing Coprocessor Is The Wizard Behind The Curtain For The iPhone 5s | TechCrunch
NXPI: Summary for NXP Semiconductors N.V.- Yahoo! Finance
Here's what I know about Universal Display (OLED). This short seller Manuel P. Asensio has been going hard at it, and scared the market into a ~9% drop in one day a few weeks ago (it recovered ~4% the next day). A lot of the value of the stock is bound up in its patents for OLEDs and the legal status of the patents (in Europe and elsewhere) are under constant litigation. It has a huge contract with Samsung, who uses Universal Display's OLED technology for the Galaxy IV smartphone, some tablet, and a high-end TV. If the OLEDs TVs become popular on a mass scale, then OLED is worth a lot (because it also sells material for OLEDs) but if it doesn't play out right, or OLED can't hold its patents, then not so good.
Chickenlittle
Banned
Not my favorite stock although I did make money riding volatility at one point. Got in around 20 missed opportunity at 60 but smart enough to exit at 45. Reasons I would not consider a but
1. Almost exclusively one customer , samsung. Lg does use but has never negotiated long term contract
2. Despite not having blue down yet they engaged in stock buy back to boost share price which as usual failed to do anything. When a growth company cannot figure out what to do with money and only way they can think to boost value is stock buy back, watch out. Imagine tesla doing that now
3. Raised secondary offering without a clue what to spend money on. They ultimately used the funds to buy back stock and to buy Fuji patent portfolio that years later hasn't yielded any commercially viable product
4. Inept management had their "clock" cleaned by samsung. They negotiated deal not based on number of phones/tablets like they were previously paid but a buy early fee and cost of materials. Then samsung starts using someone else's red an produces twice the phones with half the material
5. Other product tv is not ready for prime time. Still costs 15000 for a set with in my opinion minimal improvement from led
6. Lighting years off. Doesn't use standard fixtures and will be more expensive to change fixtures unlike led lighting even if bulbs cost the same
7. I believe it was about a year ago they missed horribly on earnings, supposedly a surprise to all but price action in incredibly down with large volume for a week. News obviously out and rather than pre announce to level field they screed many (thank god I was out by then)
go in at your own peril
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Sorry meant to type samsung with biannual fee and material cost
Good analysis. I just think the value of the stock is wrapped up in the IP, and how secure that is is questionable.
I am very interested in the upcoming twitter ipo. Rumors are they want to go public before thanksgiving. Good article in the most recent fortune magazine on the co-founder and chairman, Jack Dorsey. He also co-founded a second company, square, a mobile payment company, which could also go public within the next several months. Another one I am interested in is Dropbox, if they ever decide to go public.
I grabbed a handful of FEYE shares and am planning to pick up more sometime in the next week or two. (Investing is fun but hard as a college student! :tongue
The FEYE CEO (David DeWalt) told Reuters he is focused on growth over profitability so it might end up being a good stock to buy and hold.I don't have any plans for Twitter stock but we'll see as it gets closer.
Give me a break FEYE had $80 million in revenue in 2012 and is now valued at $3.8 billion? Is this some kind of joke?
I am starting to think that this stock market is going to end in a huge bubble once again. We are not quite there yet, but it will be a fun ride on the way up; then it's a question of who can get out in time.
I am starting to think that this stock market is going to end in a huge bubble once again. We are not quite there yet, but it will be a fun ride on the way up; then it's a question of who can get out in time.
borat99
Member
I'm filling out a form with TD Ameritrade to get in on the Twitter IPO. Not sure if they will prove the application though.
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