What other tech stock to consider?

[Causalien]

I have a question for those of you who know ORB. Orbital Science Corp.

How is it making money every quarters? I'd expect a company like this who hasn't received any major contract yet to be bleeding money up until the recent success. I also looked at their cash flow from operations and compared that with operating income. There's a large gap in between those. Any explanations?

 

[sleepyhead]

More word on NAVB today. marky p, the ceo, apparently gave a stellar presentation though, being on the west coast, i woke up too late to watch it live and am now waiting for it to archive. The stock is up 5% so far, reversing the slide, and here are the highlights of the presentation, courtesy of DDbuyer;
Get ready for RIGS. The draft clinical protocol is ready to present to FDA, and they have ID’d partners for the clinical trial

Lymphoseek – Engine for new products, leveraging into new indications
Seeing very nice adoption curves, with repeat orders, etc. First quarter efforts were focused on “seeding the market”.

2100 of the 5000 hospitals in the US do lymphatic mapping procedures. Cardinal is initially focusing on the top 600.

Manocept – Hmmmm. Better to be lucky than good? They may have stumbled onto something big here. The macrophage targeting properties allows Tilmanocept to bind to and identify inflammation, and any disease which stimulates macrophage response.

Tilmanocept could have potential to diagnose other types of cancers, as well as many diseases including auto-immune diseases, which are the most difficult to diagnose. I believe we will soon see the Manocept line listed as a separate product in the pipeline chart



Cash on hand = $54.4 million

Thanks for the update. When do you expect this company to start growing revenues and EPS with these products? It sounds like they are doing well and expanding distribution. In which quarter will these good results show up for a potential ER blowout?

 

[mershaw2001]

Hi Sleepyhead,
Sorry to disappoint, I don't have a tremendous amount of insight into their revenue. The line: Seeing very nice adoption curves, with repeat orders, etc. First quarter efforts were focused on “seeding the market”. 2100 of the 5000 hospitals in the US do lymphatic mapping procedures. Cardinal is initially focusing on the top 600.

is reassuring. They came in at 186,000 for the first quarter whereas estimates were predicting close to 320,000 on average in revenues. My take is that if they were giving away the sauce (lymphoseek) for free and they stop doing that on october 4 as it transitions to being passthrough billed, we'll see the big bump in revenue then. I don't have an estimate as to what good revenues would be, I would just be giving you the consensus. My opinion is
1) best technology out there
2) it's the first quarter of sales
3) there's a lot of fear that they will not be selling the product.

And I guess that I have faith that if the product distinguishes itself over the current gold standard, then it will be adopted. I can say that after reading the primary journal articles, I felt that Lymphoseek was a compellingly better product than the current blue dye. It identified more nodes, more accurately, and lasts in the body hours longer so its easier to visualize, and with a ~97% accuracy which was higher than the current blue dye. If I was a physician trying to map sentinel lymph nodes, I'd feel compelled to use it prior to doing surgery. The cost is only 300 dollars, and if I'm going to take out 20 lymph nodes from a patient I want to be taking out the correct ones.
So I don't want to pump it too much, but I'm obviously quite enthusiastic about it.

 

[bonnie]

Is Lymphoseek cleared by FDA yet? It sounds like it is not. If not, they can distribute under an FDA-approved clinical trial plan & even charge nominally to recover costs, but not so much as to make a profit. I don't see it cleared yet, but I could be looking in the wrong place.

 

[mershaw2001]

Lymphoseek was FDA approved in march.
FDA approves Lymphoseek to help locate lymph nodes in patients with certain cancers

The shares were at 4.00 prior to the approval. Upon approval, they dropped precipitously to 2.80 and short float increased from 18 million to 24 million in that 2 week span.

 

[bonnie]

Thanks for the info. I didn't see it in the database.

 

[Mario Kadastik]

Well I took a gambit on the NAVB with 10 contracts of Jan '15 at strike $2 for $1.15. Those seemed the best balanced with regard to time value and cost. Makes up now ca 3.5% of my portfolio (I know it's a small portfolio still).

 

[Thumper]

What are the thoughts on Fire Eye (FEYE)? It had the IPO last week. The insiders bought at $20 and doubled the first day. I had intended to buy after the IPO but wonder if it is now too high. Closed today at $41.11. Is it still a good buy?

 

[mershaw2001]

I was hoping to pick up more shares of NAVB at 2.57 yesterday but it never went down below 2.60, and then it popped today and I missed my chance. I think your approach to picking up 2015 2-strike or 3-strike is the way to go.

I'm listening to the conference call right now, they are talking about a really cool discovery, serendipitously their Lymphoseek that finds lymph nodes based on CD206-expressing macrophages (macs) to identify sentinel lymph nodes. They found that in Karposi Sarcoma, Rheumatoid arthritis, and tuberculosis (which infects macrophages primarily) that they can track macrophages using this in a novel manner. This will allow them to apply the technology to other situations than cancer.

That's quite fortuitous, "better to be lucky than smart".

 

[TsRocket]

Cramer said FEYE was a GO.

 

[borat99]

It looks like Navidea next earnings call is on November 4th. That's right around Tesla's Q3 earnings. These are already giving me heartaches. I knew I had to work in a jail today so I put in an order to sell TSLA calls at market open at market price. Worst. Decision. Ever! Oh well, there is always next week.

 

[mershaw2001]

It looks like Navidea next earnings call is on November 4th. That's right around Tesla's Q3 earnings. These are already giving me heartaches. I knew I had to work in a jail today so I put in an order to sell TSLA calls at market open at market price. Worst. Decision. Ever! Oh well, there is always next week.

whenever I have a day like that I just think: if I'm not out of the game I can still turn this around. As long as you can play another round tomorrow and you aren't cashed out things can look up.

 

[ggr]

It looks like Navidea next earnings call is on November 4th. That's right around Tesla's Q3 earnings. These are already giving me heartaches. I knew I had to work in a jail today so I put in an order to sell TSLA calls at market open at market price. Worst. Decision. Ever! Oh well, there is always next week.

Never, ever, use market orders for options.

 

[borat99]

Never, ever, use market orders for options.

Thanks. I learned my lesson. Luckily didn't lose too much and my long position kinda made up for the loss with that jump on Friday.

 

[fjm9898]

For my people with Cree, good news. Cree got upgraded to $80 PT. Stock gaped up 6% this morning.

6:32AM Cree upgraded to Buy from Hold at Canaccord Genuity; tgt raised to $80 from $65

 

[fjm9898]

Cree continues to run off the upgrade. up 10% now.

 

[mershaw2001]

Yeah, thanks for the advice. I didn't go all in, but picked up a little bit of CREE when you made the argument for it.

 

[Royal TS(LA)]

This development is silly :frown:.

 

[fjm9898]

almost 16% in total today for Cree. There must of been alot of pent up buying waiting for the stock after it took the huge fall after the Q2 report. I guess this upgrade is what the stock needed to show people its time to buy back into them. So much so we are starting to flirt with their pre Q2 levels. 52week before earnings was $76 and we are almost there. Like i said i wouldnt be shocked to see Cree at $100 in two years time.

 

[DaveT]

Twitter (TWTR) just publicly released their S-1 filing. Highly recommend reading through it whether you decide to invest in it or not.

http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1418091/000119312513390321/d564001ds1.htm