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What will happen to current owners once Tesla drops the price of new Y's?

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I admire the relentless optimism, but jumping on this proposed EV tax credit is premature and wouldn't mean price cuts aren't coming even if it went through in its current form with no changes (spoiler: it won't)

Benefits of these tax credits and the other items rolled into the bill would be skewed largely in the favor of the competition. GM needs more credits, Toyota needs more credits, and the legacy OEMs would be getting funds to support retooling their current facilities to produce EVs and that would give them more flexibility in pricing aggressively.

There will be price and income limits on these credits, and I have a feeling they would end up being more conservative than the numbers currently touted ($80k limit for SUVs, $55k limit for cars, $150k individual income limit and $300k household).


Beyond that we need to wonder about dynamics around the consumer reaction and when these credits would come into effect. For example if the credits don't come into effect until the start of next year, people will be holding off on buying and could exacerbate effects of the interest rate hikes in the interim
While the bill is not final and passed I’m not sure why you believe this is going to skew towards favor of the competition… the bill in its current form will exclude many manufacturers either by the price cap requirements or the (40-50%) manufactured in U.S. requirements.

Tesla will have the ability to meet both requirements for Model Y’s, and at least the SR Model 3. And while it’s true that some configurations of the M3 and obviously the Model S/X will be above the price cap to qualify, currently none of Tesla’s models qualify so adding any that do is a bonus for Tesla. There will be other manufacturers like Rivian who have offerings that are currently qualifying under the <200k vehicles made requirement that won’t qualify going forward with the price cap on EV SUV’s being 80k.

Sure they could change the language to restrict tighter on price caps and income limits and phase more Tesla’s out, but they apparently have Manchin on board and he’s typically the one that would cry about such things. They don’t really need to tighten it further, but even if they do it will just hurt Tesla’s competition even further since more of the competition that was qualifying will no longer qualify - and like I said, Tesla’s weren’t qualifying right now anyways, and they aren’t having any issues selling, anything added to incentivize buyers in terms of federal tax break for them is just a bonus.
 
At the rate Tesla is building cars, everyone will be owning one in the future. If people stop buying, what happens to the excess capacity? Serious question. We have people screaming to get more cars out of the factory doors.... but there will be a point of market saturation for a certain car segment. Tesla wants to electrify the world, but there are only so many people in the world that can afford +$60k cars. Stock holders want to flood the market because they want TSLA to be worth its valuation. What TSLA is worth right now reflects the future value. In the future people think Tesla will be the #1 automaker. But that can't happen until lower cost cars come about.

Since tesla cars have high profit margins -- the most of any car manufactures, will Tesla simply lower the price of existing cars when they have taken over the high end car market to sell to the lower end market (which they can because of the high profit margins), or will they make a "cheaper" car which will cost tesla more money to design and build because new machines will have to be bought or reconfigured. In other words, would a "cheaper car" be really more "cheaper to build"? Every car needs a certain amount of metal... certain amount of batteries, etc.. After a while, building and designing a "cheaper" car wouldn't be worth it because the cost to make the "cheaper" car would be about the same cost to make a model 3 or Y.

Just my 2 cents. Basically, I feel Tesla will have to lower their prices. There just isn't enough people that are willing to fork over $60k for a car and the stock market demands Tesla make the most cars of any other car companies. TSLA valuations are high as compared to other car makers. Tesla cannot be a niche car manufacturer like Mercedes or BMW.
That is ridiculous logic and shows an innate misunderstanfing of how market logistics and demand paradigms work hand in hand. Toyota and Honda have sold more Camry's and Accords than any other cars in the world, does that mean that the prices have dropped every year? Quite the contrary, as these cars don't remain static. Improvements will be made, new models released, new drivers unlocked, new regions explored, etc.
 
Feels like Elon is setting the stage for price cuts with these fresh tweets


And then the real question…
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That is ridiculous logic and shows an innate misunderstanfing of how market logistics and demand paradigms work hand in hand. Toyota and Honda have sold more Camry's and Accords than any other cars in the world, does that mean that the prices have dropped every year? Quite the contrary, as these cars don't remain static. Improvements will be made, new models released, new drivers unlocked, new regions explored, etc.

Toyota and Honda sells cars that on average are 1/2 to 1/3 as expensive than tesla with lower profit margins.

Compared to Honda and Toyota, the profit margins per a tesla car is insane. Also, as cars become easier to build so actual cost to buy a car is lower.

For example, I used to own a 2000 bmw 330i. It was $45k new. An equivalent car today would be $25k. Obviously, it would not have the same brand name plating. It would be either a honda or an accord. But today, a 2022 honda or accord would have the same technology (side air bags, anti-lock brakes, esc, etc) and even more (blind side warning, AEB, better infotainment, etc) than my old bmw while at the same time being cheaper.

Tesla is acting like niche car makers right now (bmw, merc, etc..). Granted bmw hasn't "lowered their" prices, but instead added more features -- so in a way, I do agree with your assessment that car manufactures do add features to keep car cost at the optima cost for their market segment. But bmw is not trying to electrify the world and "save the world by having everyone drive electric". Tesla is, but it can't do that by catering only to rich people.
 
And then the real question… View attachment 834183
When looking at the questions asked in the thread and which you'd think he would respond to, that seems like a really odd choice and an even odder response. Elon's latest statements were that he could see prices coming down if inflation comes down, so why would tweets now about inflation lowering lead to higher prices?

Why not respond to something like this

 
Inflation slowing down does not mean that prices will come down; It just means prices are increasing at a slower rate. I don't see Tesla lowering their prices in the near future.
This is very true. We need deflation for prices to come down and it would be significant to change the inflation the world has seen for the past 12 months. Prices of Teslas or any cars never significantly come down unless they are not selling well. The model Y was the best selling EV car in the UK this June. I can’t see prices coming down. I’m expecting every few months to see £1-2k rises still.
 
Inflation slowing down does not mean that prices will come down; It just means prices are increasing at a slower rate. I don't see Tesla lowering their prices in the near future.

If prices don't come down and demand lessens because of the recession, Tesla will sell less cars. Just look at the used inventory. 1 year old ago, I remember there were 0 cars available... Nadda... Zipp.... look at it now.


Oh well, whatever. I'm just going to get some popcorn and watch the world devolve. Lets see if Tesla increases prices. If the recession is going to be as bad as people say it is, not sure that's a good plan. But than what do I know?

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The priority of central banks around the world right now is making things not sell as well, that's almost the entire purpose of the interest rates hikes: balancing demand with the limited supply.

Tesla's older models have a long history of price fluctuations and it's all tracked, so I'm not sure why we're arguing things that can be empirically disproven. The Y is too new to see the trend, but the S, 3, and X had all seen big price decreases in the past



In terms of new cheaper models, they might be able to software lock and push out cheaper variants but Tesla has zero apparent plans to create any new models. The Roadster, Semi, and Cybertruck are already way behind schedule and who knows how many resources are being consumed by Optimus.

I don't even know what they would take out of current models to create less expensive versions, these vehicles are already so stripped down and simplistic. But I'm also not sure why people are against price decreases when they are a massive benefit to the consumer, especially people who are priced out of current EVs. We need an inventory glut and we need lower prices.



The reality is that many people who bought vehicles in the last 2 years will have overpaid, we all knew the risks when buying vehicles at the top of a very heated market. Tesla's price increases should hopefully end up being just the direct sales manufacturer version of temporary dealership markups. I paid MSRP ($90k) for a used vehicle that would have been significantly cheaper if it were selling in 2019, but that's the way the cookie crumbles.

Lets not even get into paying more through shrinkflation as many vehicles built since the start of the pandemic have had features/capabilities/components stripped out by manufacturers working to continue delivering cars in the midst of the supply chain issues.
 
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If prices don't come down and demand lessens because of the recession, Tesla will sell less cars. Just look at the used inventory. 1 year old ago, I remember there were 0 cars available... Nadda... Zipp.... look at it now.


Oh well, whatever. I'm just going to get some popcorn and watch the world devolve. Lets see if Tesla increases prices. If the recession is going to be as bad as people say it is, not sure that's a good plan. But than what do I know?

View attachment 834306
There are multiple signs a recession is already in progress yet people are still buying expensive cars. The average car payment in the US has hit $712/month. I think with this demand Tesla has no need to decrease prices as they're selling everything they're making.
 
The priority of central banks around the world right now is making things not sell as well, that's almost the entire purpose of the interest rates hikes: balancing demand with the limited supply.

Tesla's older models have a long history of price fluctuations and it's all tracked, so I'm not sure why we're arguing things that can be empirically disproven. The Y is too new to see the trend, but the S, 3, and X had all seen big price decreases in the past



In terms of new cheaper models, they might be able to software lock and push out cheaper variants but Tesla has zero apparent plans to create any new models. The Roadster, Semi, and Cybertruck are already way behind schedule and who knows how many resources are being consumed by Optimus.

I don't even know what they would take out of current models to create less expensive versions, these vehicles are already so stripped down and simplistic. But I'm also not sure why people are against price decreases when they are a massive benefit to the consumer, especially people who are priced out of current EVs. We need an inventory glut and we need lower prices.
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Actually, I was thinking this is exactly what Tesla can do. They can...

- Remove Autopilot as a standard feature and make it a $4K option. This alone would drop the base price below $55K and even allow for a color option
- Remove heated seats and make is a $500 option
- Dumb down the audio system and make the sub and extra speakers a $500 option

I actually hate this scheme. BMW recently proposed a monthly rate for heated seats. But this way they could offer a much lower base model and buyers who were already going to buy with these features in mind can just go on the app and pay for them after they own the car. So I'd hold my nose and do this if I could get a M3LR with the $7,500 rebate. I have a M3 RWD on order for delivery in Oct/Nov. I'd not sure if this car qualifies for some or all of the rebate, but regardless I'd have to push the delivery out into next year.

I hope the language gets tweaked a little to ease these restrictions. For now I'm just seeing how this all plays out. I was thinking my car would get pushed to next year anyway, but if people will miss out on a $7,500 rebate if they take delivery in 2022 I can see a lot of orders getting cancelled and I may move up in the queue.
 
We - so far- buy cars and drive until we throw it out or its value is at its minimum. My 1996 MB E-320 has been serving me well, still very enjoyable and reliable every time I drive it, probably the best I6 engine that MB builds. MYLR will be my last car , Period 🤣
I'm similar to you. I buy cars and keep them for 15+ years. By the time I sell them, they are worth pretty much nothing, so resale value doesn't mean much to me. That being said, in 2022, due to the crazy car market I sold our old cars (for more money than they are worth, frankly - but if CarMax wanted to give me stupid money, I won't argue) and bought a 2022 Y (paid $53k before TTL, ordered in Sept of 2021) and a 2022 Toyota Sienna - another super high demand car but due to a personal relationship was able to buy a new one for MSRP.

I only bought the Y because I felt that Tesla's tech and powertrain/battery tech is mature enough that it seems mostly reliable.
 
I paid $71K for my PMY back in Aug, but got $60K on my 2020 Y trade in, $8K more than I paid for it. So what are trade in values today?

I have similar story. Got a '21 MYLR for $53k, was able to sell it for $63k and turn around to get a '22 MYLR at $55k.

Yes, in theory, I just took a drop in the resale value of my 22 MYLR... but I don't care, I have no need to sell it if I don't want to, and my net-outlay on the thing is in the $40k's after the sequence of 2 cars.