What's going to be at the 2014 NAIAS Tesla exhibit?

[jeff_adams]

I think your definition of Tesla Time also carries over to Elon's SpaceX. Grandiose plans with short time tables only to be delayed by reality but still really freaking awesome when it does come.

Many of us have speculated that Elon KNOWS it can't be done on time, but he puts it out there and pushes his teams to "meet the deadline". If he set a truly "realistic" deadline, the team would likely ease into it and come up late.

You can't fault him for this tactic. Look how far ahead SpaceX is compared to say Bezo or Branson's endeavors.

This is why Tesla will never get caught by the big automakers in Electric Car Technology. Telsa's aggressive timelines will not be met, but their efforts will put them SO far in front that the competition will end up having to abandon plans because they will be too dated. See supercharger network as an example.

 

[Benz]

Many of us have speculated that Elon KNOWS it can't be done on time, but he puts it out there and pushes his teams to "meet the deadline". If he set a truly "realistic" deadline, the team would likely ease into it and come up late.

You can't fault him for this tactic. Look how far ahead SpaceX is compared to say Bezo or Branson's endeavors.

This is why Tesla will never get caught by the big automakers in Electric Car Technology. Telsa's aggressive timelines will not be met, but their efforts will put them SO far in front that the competition will end up having to abandon plans because they will be too dated. See supercharger network as an example.

That's right.

 

[anticitizen13.7]

Ok… so I wish Tesla had revealed something more of Model X or AWD S, but I'll happily take the surprise Q4 delivery numbers.

All you shareholders and options traders out there must have had a field day!

 

[AlMc]

Ok… so I wish Tesla had revealed something more of Model X or AWD S, but I'll happily take the surprise Q4 delivery numbers.

All you shareholders and options traders out there must have had a field day!

A very good green day!

 

[brianman]

Use the pi factor when scaling contractor estimates to reality:

Real time = Contractor estimated time * pi

Kind a roundabout way of saying they have bad estimates.

 

[InTheShadows]

Use the pi factor when scaling contractor estimates to reality:

Real time = Contractor estimated time * pi

You need to find a contractor that will give you a fixed contract price with no hidden costs.

X dollars for ABC product. When contracts are drawn up like that the job gets done right the first time and quickly so the contractor can move on to the next job.

 

[Discoducky]

You need to find a contractor that will give you a fixed contract price with no hidden costs.

X dollars for ABC product. When contracts are drawn up like that the job gets done right the first time and quickly so the contractor can move on to the next job.

Bonnie has dogs though :scared:

 

[Doug_G]

Kind a roundabout way of saying they have bad estimates.

Funnily enough, that's pretty much how I estimate hardware and software projects. I guesstimate how long it would take for me to do it if everything went well, then multiply by 3. (Typically... I usually adjust the fudge factor depending on who is going to do the work, and also if we have to use new tools.)

 

[ckessel]

Many of us have speculated that Elon KNOWS it can't be done on time, but he puts it out there and pushes his teams to "meet the deadline". If he set a truly "realistic" deadline, the team would likely ease into it and come up late.

You can't fault him for this tactic. Look how far ahead SpaceX is compared to say Bezo or Branson's endeavors.

I could completely fault him if that was his tactic. This management tactic of knowledge workers has been completely and thoroughly discredited. Peopleware calls it Spanish Theory Management and there are studies noting arbitrary deadlines are one of the worst possible ways to "motivate" and are, in fact, counter productive.

I, for the record, don't think that's his tactic. I think he's just crazy driven and doesn't realize the rest of the world can't operate at his level all the time.

 

[InTheShadows]

I could completely fault him if that was his tactic. This management tactic of knowledge workers has been completely and thoroughly discredited. Peopleware calls it Spanish Theory Management and there are studies noting arbitrary deadlines are one of the worst possible ways to "motivate" and are, in fact, counter productive.

I, for the record, don't think that's his tactic. I think he's just crazy driven and doesn't realize the rest of the world can't operate at his level all the time.

Are you saying he has a reality distortion field?

 

[chickensevil]

First off full interview I think. Poor quality, but here it is:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yQJkJzFr02g

Ok… so I wish Tesla had revealed something more of Model X or AWD S, but I'll happily take the surprise Q4 delivery numbers.

All you shareholders and options traders out there must have had a field day!

Not going to lie, I figured this would happen. Not to this extent, but that it would happen. The stock had been deflated from all the bad press about the "recall" which was really an update and a replacement of a retail 45$ price part being shipped to customers (this likely cost them under 500k). So because I knew it was low, and there would be SOMETHING good pushed today (or at least perceived as good by the less informed of us). that I would watch the stock to hit it's absolute lowest point and then pull the trigger on more shares. I am really happy because I ended up getting the stock at 138. I was super nervous to be dumping as much as I did on this kind of gamble, and now only wish I had done more. haha!

Given the high short percentage, the HUGE run up (even after hours it has been going higher - meaning the CNBC interview was perceived as continued positive news), this might shape up to mimic the run up from last year. Guaranteed, if we get more good news building up to the Q4 earnings, look out, This could get messy.

 

[cwerdna]

Yhe stock had been deflated from all the bad press about the "recall" which was really an update and a replacement of a retail 45$ price part being shipped to customers (this likely cost them under 500k)

"Recall"? Why the quotes? It is an actual recall. See http://www-odi.nhtsa.dot.gov/owners/SearchResults?searchType=ID&targetCategory=R&searchCriteria.nhtsa_ids=14V006000.

There have been recalls for stickers (!): http://www-odi.nhtsa.dot.gov/owners/SearchResults?searchType=ID&targetCategory=R&searchCriteria.nhtsa_ids=12V102000&refurl=rss and Chevy recalling 2013-14 Camaro models over airbag stickers that dont - Autoblog.

The issue isn't so much about cost, it's about perceptions and FUD amongst those who know little/nothing about EVs and those w/knee jerk irrational reactions and cancel/don't buy a Tesla.

 

[mrdoubleb]

"Recall"? Why the quotes? It is an actual recall. See http://www-odi.nhtsa.dot.gov/owners...Category=R&searchCriteria.nhtsa_ids=14V006000.

There have been recalls for stickers (!): http://www-odi.nhtsa.dot.gov/owners...searchCriteria.nhtsa_ids=12V102000&refurl=rss and Chevy recalling 2013-14 Camaro models over airbag stickers that dont - Autoblog.

The issue isn't so much about cost, it's about perceptions and FUD amongst those who know little/nothing about EVs and those w/knee jerk irrational reactions and cancel/don't buy a Tesla.

Hate to try and convince a native speaker of English, but doesn't the term "recall" imply recalling, i.e. ordering back products to the factory/service center to fix a manufacturing or design error? Not that doing that for a sticker isn't stupid, but at least there you could argue they need to do a "physical fix" on the vehicle.

With the model S, they did an OTA software update and mail you a new adapter. No need to take your car to the shop. Also, they are not asking anyone to return/destroy the old adapter as those are safe. There was no manufacturing or design error, they are just adding an extra feature (thermal fuse) that they are not even required to have by law or regulation.

 

[Discoducky]

Yep, it sounds like we are just getting a free 14-50, nothing 'actually' recalled. I think a fair term would be 'remedied' since the free adapter will be the one used and I can't imagine losing it or leaving it as it is clipped to the cable.

 

[cwerdna]

Hate to try and convince a native speaker of English, but doesn't the term "recall" imply recalling, i.e. ordering back products to the factory/service center to fix a manufacturing or design error? Not that doing that for a sticker isn't stupid, but at least there you could argue they need to do a "physical fix" on the vehicle.

With the model S, they did an OTA software update and mail you a new adapter. No need to take your car to the shop. Also, they are not asking anyone to return/destroy the old adapter as those are safe. There was no manufacturing or design error, they are just adding an extra feature (thermal fuse) that they are not even required to have by law or regulation.

No design error? That's debatable given there have been reports of melted adapters (besides Tesla receiving some of them) and a fire in a garage while a Model S is charging and precautions now taken (via the 2 steps already mentioned). You can look up the associated documents on NHTSA's site for more details.

Heck, I'll give you another crazy recall that doesn't involve a "physical fix" to the vehicle: Honda prints phone sex number in 1.2 million car manuals | Leftlane News - Car News For Enthusiasts.

Report Receipt Date: JUL 26, 2006
NHTSA Campaign Number: 06V270000
Component(s): EQUIPMENT
All Products Associated with this Recall expand
Details close
9 Associated Documents close
Manufacturer: HONDA (AMERICAN HONDA MOTOR CO.)
SUMMARY:
ON CERTAIN PASSENGER VEHICLES AND MOTORCYCLES, THE OWNER'S MANUALS CONTAIN INCORRECT CONTACT INFORMATION FOR THE NATIONAL HIGHWAY TRAFFIC SAFETY ADMINISTRATION'S (NHTSA) VEHICLE SAFETY HOTLINE.
CONSEQUENCE:
THE LANGUAGE IN THE OWNER'S MANUALS IS NOT IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE CURRENT MANDATORY REQUIREMENTS.
REMEDY:
HONDA WILL SEND A POSTCARD TO DEALERS AND OWNERS WITH THE CORRECT NHTSA VEHICLE SAFETY HOTLINE INFORMATION AND WITH INSTRUCTIONS TO INSERT THE CARD INTO THE "REPORTING SAFETY DEFECTS" SECTION OF THE OWNER'S MANUAL. THE RECALL BEGAN ON AUGUST 2, 2006. OWNERS MAY CONTACT HONDA AT 1-800-999-1009, ACURA AT 1-800-382-2238 OR HONDA MOTORCYCLES AT 1-866-784-1870.
NOTES:
CUSTOMERS MAY ALSO CONTACT THE NATIONAL HIGHWAY TRAFFIC SAFETY ADMINISTRATION'S VEHICLE SAFETY HOTLINE AT 1-888-327-4236 (TTY 1-800-424-9153), OR GO TO Home | Safercar -- National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA).

 

[ElSupreme]

Funnily enough, that's pretty much how I estimate hardware and software projects. I guesstimate how long it would take for me to do it if everything went well, then multiply by 3. (Typically... I usually adjust the fudge factor depending on who is going to do the work, and also if we have to use new tools.)

I use 2 if I am doing any of the work, or 4 if I am handing it off to others.

Got to account for TMC time somehow.

 

[AnOutsider]

Tesla spin aside, id have to agree its a recall. If it were easy to do, id bet they'd want the old adapters back. Heck, at my first service they took my (partially melted and corroded) adapter and gave me a new one.

The word invokes some negative thoughts/emotions and I can see why Tesla would want to avoid it, but as far as what is actually happening, it's technically a recall IMO.

 

[SebastianR]

Tesla spin aside, id have to agree its a recall. If it were easy to do, id bet they'd want the old adapters back. Heck, at my first service they took my (partially melted and corroded) adapter and gave me a new one.

The word invokes some negative thoughts/emotions and I can see why Tesla would want to avoid it, but as far as what is actually happening, it's technically a recall IMO.

In that way, we should probably call everything that touches cars a "recall"? Or where is the line between "enhanced/expanded product" (e.g. changing the GPS to find/navigate to Superchargers), "improved product" (e.g. fixing vampire drain via software) and "fixed product" (e.g. changing air suspension after the accidents?

I guess I'm a traditional guy: I think the seat belt thing was a classic recall. I think anything that can be fixed via software is an update. And I think we need to accept that owning a Tesla is much more like owning a computer: yes you can buy it, but if you don't keep the software current, you are exposed to all kinds of risks.

 

[justaddsun]

I've never had a recall shipped to my house. I would assume a recall would need to be installed by the service center to ensure it is done properly. If it were that urgent or likely to cause danger, then why leave it up to the owner to install? Semantics, but this is not a recall.

 

[Benz]

Over the air is not a recall, it's an update. And there actually will always be updates, and that is a good thing.