What's the surprise at Semi unveiling?

[Cloxxki]

The problem with li-ion chemistry is for high C rate you generally trade off capacity. A battery that charges 3X faster, but has 1/5 the capacity is not as useful as what they are using now.

How big and heavy is the Ioniq's battery then? It's still not a huge car with 1/3 the capacity of a very costly Tesla.

The trade-off is real, but I'd like to see data that it's 5x more space/weight for 3x the charging speed.
Also, tho which extent is Tesla married with li-ion? For the Panasonic sourced cell contract (about to end), sure, they're stuck. For 2170, I've not seen a whole lot of emphasis on the exact chemistry guaranteed to be used. I've seen large lithium demand figures, but not the purchase contracts. And, Tesla does have some ambitious researchers on the payroll. I'd be more surprised if they came up with non (say an only 18Wh 2170 slow charging cells) than with something that's a proper revolution.

When the likes of Hyundai start pushing out cars with fast chemistry and longer range (Ioniq's are really economical, so might not need huge capacity), Tesla stuck on slightly higher density SLOW cells will be looking jurassic and glacial in comparison.
With high density li-ion having been pursued for a bit longer with a bit more cash than power cells as I suspect, there might also be more room for improvement in the latter.
For a long distance semi truck, I bet the slowest 2170 cells would suffice, unless instant charging were demanded by the fleet managers. Really affordable BIG batttery pack that can be swapped though...
Say, a decent Semi needs 500kWh to get around, that's just some $50K at the cell level in terms of tesla's cost. Nicely swappable packs (who doesn't have a fork lift in that industry?) could add only $150-200K to the vehicles's SALES price. If Tesla are less greedy with their margins there.
I believe a 100kWh Powerpack is rate at a glacial 50kW? 5 of those still put out 250kW. Through four Model 3 motors, that still a heck of a lot of torque. They won't go that low of course, a Tesla needs to win at the stop light. Better strap that cargo well!

 

[SlyWombat]

As mentioned in a few posts, the battery swap makes sense, but that would be integrated into the distribution warehouse, the warehouses have huge solar capabilities, so think banks of powerwalls that can be unhooked from the wall and dropped on the semi to "refuel". So end to end solar->storage->battery swap->roll to next location. There is a fair bit of distribution center to distribution center traffic and tackling that segment first would cover the power needs for that traffic.

 

[bonaire]

One of the most illuminating things Musk said about semis was that they were working with large trucking fleet operators. This leads to the obvious question:

What do fleet operators really want in an electric semi?

The cost efficiency answer includes how to get to autonomous and remove the .40+ per mile costs (and health insurance costs and others for full timers). You'd think Walmart would be all over it - as would UPS and FedEx. Many use full time salaried driving staff.

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

Cost efficiency?

I was going to reply in song:

Money money money money money money
Money money money money money money
Money money money money money money
Money money.

But you said it more succinctly.

 

[jhm]

I think the fleet operators (near term) will want

• all trucks to be autonomy ready, pending regulatory approval
• security systems on trucks
• onsite fleet charging solutions (how do you charge a hundred trucks at once with high availability?)
• integrated fleet logistics software

The first three create the need for the fourth. The logistics software is needed so that each truck is headed in the right direction or charged up and ready to go when needed. Security may need monitoring as well. Ultimately it is the logistics software that runs the whole show from a dispatch center.

Perhaps that dispatch center could include drone drivers who can take control remotely when needed for regulatory reasons, emergencies or other special circumstances. Is it possible that drone driving could be legal in some places before full autonomy is allowed?

 

[Cloxxki]

A parking lot could get integrated floor chargers. To reduce distance from receiver to transmitter, a tesla could let the receivers lower hydraulically.

A semi-truck might not get convenient 500kW charging from a single plug, but it might offer 4x 125kW to charge 4x 150kWh packs. That would charge up nicely. Really, plugging in 4 times is not such a terrible thing to do. And it could be automated.
But if CCS is rolling out 350-400kW chargers, two of those would probably suffice the most hurried fleet manager.

In rare cases, trucks swap drivers so the cargo keeps all but rolling. But they need to stop for comfort breaks anyway, if not by law. 700kW can't keep you stuck at the truck stop for too long. At destinations, you simply need a good amount of time to (un)load.

 

[jhm]

A parking lot could get integrated floor chargers. To reduce distance from receiver to transmitter, a tesla could let the receivers lower hydraulically.

A semi-truck might not get convenient 500kW charging from a single plug, but it might offer 4x 125kW to charge 4x 150kWh packs. That would charge up nicely. Really, plugging in 4 times is not such a terrible thing to do. And it could be automated.
But if CCS is rolling out 350-400kW chargers, two of those would probably suffice the most hurried fleet manager.

In rare cases, trucks swap drivers so the cargo keeps all but rolling. But they need to stop for comfort breaks anyway, if not by law. 700kW can't keep you stuck at the truck stop for too long. At destinations, you simply need a good amount of time to (un)load.

I've been thinking that autonomy could be exploited. Suppose you have a fleet of 100 trucks that need to be fully charged about twice per day. So suppose you have 10 500kW chargers. Up to 10 trucks can charge at once, typically for less than a full hour each. After a run, a truck takes itself to a waiting area. Subject to prioritization, when one truck is done charging, it leaves and another takes its place. One truck becomes available every 6 minutes. A buffer of prepped trucks can be maintained for high availability.

Obviously such a system would be scaled to meet the need of each particular fleet operations center. Because this is all automated and autonomous, the staffing requirements are quite minimal. The logistics information system can coordinate the whole thing. If a driver is needed, they are only needed as the truck exits the operations center. So I suspect that some jobs can be cut, even if drivers are still needed for public roads.

There may still be a place for lots of slow charging. If there are enough trucks sitting around, you could do adaptive charging, where the rate of charge depends on how cheap power is at the time. So essentially the adaptive fleet charging would provide a load service to the grid. This sort of thing trades off having lower fleet utilization for cheaper energy. Initially, I don't think this will be desirable. While electric semis are a small portion of a total fleet, it seems you'd want to maximize their utilization. But as the EV semi fleet gets larger, lower utilization becomes unavoidable. So at some point, you might want to monetize that underused capacity, and providing grid services fits the bill.

However Tesla works through these issues, it seems clear that Tesla has a lot of opportunity around building power and charging systems for fleets. Solar+storage may well be included. So they get revenue from both selling semis and installing systems. Tesla Semi and Tesla Energy.

 

[wdolson]

The concern with trucks is logistics and incoming power line sizing. If one truck pulls up and the site has 1MW of incoming power - then you can get fancy with high-C rating charging. If the site has 1MW and six trucks come in and need to get going quickly, then what? Battery Swap would be better. If trucking would rely on electricity in the utopian future, then having a truck stop with an agent who runs a truck-battery based forklift to swap out a truck's batteries in 5 minutes and they get another 600 miles, those batteries can be charged slower than if they were attached and must be charged "right now". Then again, 600 miles is a typical driver's day and so is fast charging really necessary? And then again, without a driver, you can battery swap and get the thing going again for another 600 mile run. Driving speeds will slow since average speeds per day will go way up with autonomous trucks.

I don't think it's all been thought through but in a large transition to electric transport, you really should electrify the smaller, high mileage fleet driving first (taxis, uber, long-commuters) and not those who putter around with 6000 mile a year driving cycles. Long haul trucks and some airplanes are very power-hungry and also have an ability to be hybridized. As such, focus is starting to get blurry as to the value of why would we want long-haul trucks electrified when we should be doing other things to do. You can add 1-2 mpg to today's long haul trucks through aerodynamics and load management, speed decreasing and other factors. Another 1-2mpg through hybridization with regen braking.

Look at our buying now. Instead of running to the stores as often, UPS/USPS brings us things. Electrifying the delivery trucks that have taken us off the roads would be even better. But internet buying has worked like telecommuting in getting some off the roads and cutting demand for oil/gas. However, oil/gas demand in 2016 surpassed pre-recession peak demands already - so we haven't seen a downslope just yet - demand is still at the heights. People are buying more trucks and SUVs now. India and China now want a middle-class. Population continues to grow. The 1-billion born in the last 16 years will be driving soon in many places where they can afford it but most will be driving scooters or other tiny rigs and not large sedans or SUVs. Electric scooters are quite popular in Asia now and can help cut the emissions problems from gas-powered scooters (Vietnam, Indonesia, Thailand, China, etc.)

If Tesla/Musk want to "save the world" it may want to consider making high-volume, long range electric scooters and even lawn equipment. Emissions from both are a sizable issue. Compete with Mean Green Machines (or buy them). Partner/buy China-based electric scooter companies and make millions of them and setup a charging network. America has the money to buy X/S/3 models but the population is growing fast elsewhere and needs attention. China's electric car industry is blossoming well and their sales count is surpassing all the others - seems to me they are the ones saving the world (but not in our neighborhood).

Aircraft are big consumers of fossil fuels, especially airliners. However electrifying aircraft is the toughest problem for electrifying transportation. Aircraft are the most sensitive form of transportation to the energy density of the fuel and the only fuel more energy dense than refined petroleum is nuclear power. With aircraft nuclear power was actually considered in the 1950s, but the two biggest drawbacks: accidents would be a serious crisis and the weight of the plant necessary to get the energy out made them a no go.

Right now the best batter solutions available are about 1/33 the energy density of refined petroleum and batteries have the added disadvantage of not changing weight as you use their energy like petroleum has. One thing that makes aircraft work economically is the fact they get lighter and more efficient as the flight goes on.

There are several people working on electric aircraft, but they will likely be short ranged experimental hobbies until battery technology advances quite a bit.

Focusing on small engines might make your neighborhood more quiet, but it will do little for overall petroleum usage. In 2016, the oil use in the US broke down like this (in million barrels per day, a barrel is 42 gallons)
Transportation - 13.88
Industrial - 4.61
Commercial - 0.48
Residential - 0.56

That residential covers most of the lawn mowers and commercial covers a lot of things like chain saws. There are a fair number of them, but their overall consumption is tiny. This is a good site for statistics on usage:
Monthly Energy Review - Energy Information Administration
https://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/monthly/index.php#petroleum
You have to look at a lot of reports to find everything you might want to know, but the data is all there.

There are a lot of start ups aiming at electrifying commercial vehicles. BYD is making electric taxis, there are several companies aiming at the delivery and semi market, but Tesla may have looked at what was proposed and thought the semi market is where the startups are most likely to fail so they aimed for that market next instead of the short haul truck market. The short haul truck market is more feasible from the existing technology, which may be why Tesla is bypassing it for now.

Cost efficiency?

Agreed. Fleet operators of all kinds look at the bottom line. If the total cost of ownership is less, they are likely to go for it.

 

[bonaire]

A full airliner offers about 90 passenger miles per gallon of fuel. Not bad.

 

[wdolson]

How big and heavy is the Ioniq's battery then? It's still not a huge car with 1/3 the capacity of a very costly Tesla.

The trade-off is real, but I'd like to see data that it's 5x more space/weight for 3x the charging speed.
Also, tho which extent is Tesla married with li-ion? For the Panasonic sourced cell contract (about to end), sure, they're stuck. For 2170, I've not seen a whole lot of emphasis on the exact chemistry guaranteed to be used. I've seen large lithium demand figures, but not the purchase contracts. And, Tesla does have some ambitious researchers on the payroll. I'd be more surprised if they came up with non (say an only 18Wh 2170 slow charging cells) than with something that's a proper revolution.

When the likes of Hyundai start pushing out cars with fast chemistry and longer range (Ioniq's are really economical, so might not need huge capacity), Tesla stuck on slightly higher density SLOW cells will be looking jurassic and glacial in comparison.
With high density li-ion having been pursued for a bit longer with a bit more cash than power cells as I suspect, there might also be more room for improvement in the latter.
For a long distance semi truck, I bet the slowest 2170 cells would suffice, unless instant charging were demanded by the fleet managers. Really affordable BIG batttery pack that can be swapped though...
Say, a decent Semi needs 500kWh to get around, that's just some $50K at the cell level in terms of tesla's cost. Nicely swappable packs (who doesn't have a fork lift in that industry?) could add only $150-200K to the vehicles's SALES price. If Tesla are less greedy with their margins there.
I believe a 100kWh Powerpack is rate at a glacial 50kW? 5 of those still put out 250kW. Through four Model 3 motors, that still a heck of a lot of torque. They won't go that low of course, a Tesla needs to win at the stop light. Better strap that cargo well!

Li-ion is not one chemistry, it's an entire class of battery types. NiMH is pretty much one chemistry, but the only thing Li-ion batteries have in common is they use ions of lithium for one of the electrodes. Each chemistry varies in what is used for the other electrode as well as the electrolyte in the middle. The Ioniq uses a polymer for the electrolyte instead of a liquid electrolyte like standard li-ion batteries. This makes the cells lighter and they can claim Wh/Kg densities similar to Tesla, but if measuring Wh/L, the best I can determine the Ioniq is around 700 Wh/L and the cells in the Tesla 90D were already 750 Wh/L. There are rumors the 2170 cells could be up in the 900s Wh/L.

Another factor in battery cell choice is the lifetime of the cells. The chemistry Tesla chose has a reasonably long life and with careful management, they are able to stretch that even further. The Ioniq is too new to know how their cells are going to stand up over time. In any case the all electric model only has range on par with other cars from VW, BMW, etc. I think it's around 125 miles range. OK for a commuter car, but not up to road trips.

 

[Cloxxki]

Li-ion is not one chemistry, it's an entire class of battery types. NiMH is pretty much one chemistry, but the only thing Li-ion batteries have in common is they use ions of lithium for one of the electrodes. Each chemistry varies in what is used for the other electrode as well as the electrolyte in the middle. The Ioniq uses a polymer for the electrolyte instead of a liquid electrolyte like standard li-ion batteries. This makes the cells lighter and they can claim Wh/Kg densities similar to Tesla, but if measuring Wh/L, the best I can determine the Ioniq is around 700 Wh/L and the cells in the Tesla 90D were already 750 Wh/L. There are rumors the 2170 cells could be up in the 900s Wh/L.

Another factor in battery cell choice is the lifetime of the cells. The chemistry Tesla chose has a reasonably long life and with careful management, they are able to stretch that even further. The Ioniq is too new to know how their cells are going to stand up over time. In any case the all electric model only has range on par with other cars from VW, BMW, etc. I think it's around 125 miles range. OK for a commuter car, but not up to road trips.

So, really if you were to make an Ioniq-like cell to fit nicely in an S/X pack, and you'd use the approximate 5mm headspace available when using 18650's, you'd fit a 100kWh pack. And it would charge at somewhere between 200 and 250kW. that's DOUBLE what the most costly Teslas achieve. I'd say that shows how Tesla is leaving something on the table, at least in terms of what driver care about: charge time on road trips.
If somehow Tesla were to incorperate a chemistry similar in performance to the Ioniq's in their new 2170 cylinder, density should not suffer too bad, 100kWh or more would still fit S and X and charge times would roughly HALVE.

I'd say Hyundai has Tesla check. They can unveil some luxury sedan or SUV with those Ioniq batteries abny time now, ready to reap the benefits of the CCS chargers being paid for by VW.

 

[gavine]

A full airliner offers about 90 passenger miles per gallon of fuel. Not bad.

So do cars with 3 or 4 people in them.

 

[Snapdragon III]

To me, is seemed like he was implying the surprise would have a visual component. As he said you should really try and be there for the unveil. I don't feel like a new charger would be something he would think people needed to see in person. I would be perfectly happy reading about that the next day in the paper.
I think the most likely will be that they have a working pickup prototype for the following reasons. Last we heard, it was supposed to be released a couple months after the semi anyways. It would be great publicity to publicly tie media attention of the truck and semi together to build an aura of toughness around the truck. I suspect that they will claim best in class towing capacity for both.

I don't think there is any chance of this one, but it is my fantasy... The event is held at a large open venue, and about 20 minutes after the event is supposed to start JB comes on stage and apologizes that Elon is running late, and they are going to go ahead and bring out the semi, and Elon will give the Keynote later when he gets there. The truck will drive in to view with a huge section of Boring company tunnel boring machine on the trailer on the back. As JB tells the crowd about the amazing tech, the driver will get out and unhook the trailer. JB will introduce Mike Ryan (Look him up on youtube) and he will jump in the truck and do an insane drifting demo of the truck with the traction control turned off. Right as the drift demo is wrapping up, the lights switch off, and a spotlight shines up in the sky. Down comes and vertical landing business jet prototype that has "Tesla-Space x, Joint venture 100% electric" on the side of it. The jet taxi's silently up in front of the crowd. The door opens and Elon takes one step to the edge, Microphone in hand. He clears his throat, thinks better of it, drops the mike, closes the door, and the plane flies off!

 

[RubberToe]

To me, is seemed like he was implying the surprise would have a visual component. As he said you should really try and be there for the unveil. I don't feel like a new charger would be something he would think people needed to see in person. I would be perfectly happy reading about that the next day in the paper.
I think the most likely will be that they have a working pickup prototype for the following reasons. Last we heard, it was supposed to be released a couple months after the semi anyways. It would be great publicity to publicly tie media attention of the truck and semi together to build an aura of toughness around the truck. I suspect that they will claim best in class towing capacity for both.

I don't think there is any chance of this one, but it is my fantasy... The event is held at a large open venue, and about 20 minutes after the event is supposed to start JB comes on stage and apologizes that Elon is running late, and they are going to go ahead and bring out the semi, and Elon will give the Keynote later when he gets there. The truck will drive in to view with a huge section of Boring company tunnel boring machine on the trailer on the back. As JB tells the crowd about the amazing tech, the driver will get out and unhook the trailer. JB will introduce Mike Ryan (Look him up on youtube) and he will jump in the truck and do an insane drifting demo of the truck with the traction control turned off. Right as the drift demo is wrapping up, the lights switch off, and a spotlight shines up in the sky. Down comes and vertical landing business jet prototype that has "Tesla-Space x, Joint venture 100% electric" on the side of it. The jet taxi's silently up in front of the crowd. The door opens and Elon takes one step to the edge, Microphone in hand. He clears his throat, thinks better of it, drops the mike, closes the door, and the plane flies off!

Bro,
Elon is not going to be happy that you leaked out the entire game plan! Loose lips sink ships...

RT

 

[gavine]

I hope the September surprise is that they will finally be putting solar and PowerPacks at ALL Supercharger stations.

Elon tweeted today that all Superchargers are being converted to solar + battery and that over time, almost all will be disconnected from electricity grid. SWEET!

 

[mrdoubleb]

One of the most illuminating things Musk said about semis was that they were working with large trucking fleet operators. This leads to the obvious question:

What do fleet operators really want in an electric semi?

Trucks without drivers that pull into a battery swap station and pull out, fully charged (well... swapped) 5 minutes later and can be on the road like that 23 hours a day (net).

I also agree battery swap would be optimal for balancing the strain on the grid as well. They could have stacks of packs loading in the background, for hours at lower speeds, and any truck coming in would get one that`s fully charged.

Some have mentioned the PV on top of the trailer... this may work for "boxed" trailers, eg. ones that transport frozen goods, where the PV could contribute to the freezer`s power draw to minimize range impact. But for trailers carrying shipping containers this wouldn`t work.

As for September, I voted high powered SC as well. And mot the 350kw type, because, that`s, you know, "child`s play".

 

[gavine]

I also agree battery swap would be optimal for balancing the strain on the grid as well. They could have stacks of packs loading in the background, for hours at lower speeds, and any truck coming in would get one that`s fully charged.

Sounds futuristic, but definitely attainable. Think about it, when batteries get dirt cheap, having banks upon banks of battery packs is not big deal. Right now it sounds expensive, but not for long.

 

[WarpedOne]

1 MWh pack swapped in 5 minutes equals 12 MW sustained charging (no tapper etc).
350kW is indeed child-play in comparison.

 

[mrdoubleb]

Trucks without drivers that pull into a battery swap station and pull out, fully charged (well... swapped) 5 minutes later and can be on the road like that 23 hours a day (net).

I also agree battery swap would be optimal for balancing the strain on the grid as well. They could have stacks of packs loading in the background, for hours at lower speeds, and any truck coming in would get one that`s fully charged.

Some have mentioned the PV on top of the trailer... this may work for "boxed" trailers, eg. ones that transport frozen goods, where the PV could contribute to the freezer`s power draw to minimize range impact. But for trailers carrying shipping containers this wouldn`t work.

As for September, I voted high powered SC as well. And mot the 350kw type, because, that`s, you know, "child`s play".

Sounds futuristic, but definitely attainable. Think about it, when batteries get dirt cheap, having banks upon banks of battery packs is not big deal. Right now it sounds expensive, but not for long.

Wow... mother tongue interference was big on this one, apologies. I said "they could have stacks of packs loading in the background", what I meant of course was "They could have stacks of packs charging in the background". In Hungarian we use the same word for both..

 

[wdolson]

Elon tweeted today that all Superchargers are being converted to solar + battery and that over time, almost all will be disconnected from electricity grid. SWEET!

A lot of the parking lots where superchargers are installed are going to get covered parking. Getting enough power close by for some heavily used superchargers is going to be tough. Some California locations probably use over 1 MWh a day on average.