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When in 2020 to get a Model S... Check my thinking
- Thread starter FutureShock
- Start date
Can't speak to overseas markets (which may be different), but for the US, now that I'm thinking back to the Model 3 and what happened with delivery times there last quarter, it seems to work like this:
Delivery wait times will nearly always add up to your car being delivered in the last 1-3 weeks of the quarter you order in.
Only real exception is if you order too late in the quarter to make an end-of-quarter delivery (i.e. you order in the last week or two of the quarter), in which case you get it next quarter, and possibly well into next quarter.
So in other words, the current 8-11 weeks delivery time will steadily collapse down to less and less time as we get closer to quarter-end. Probably 6 weeks from quarter-end, it'll be 4-6 weeks, and 4 weeks from quarter-end it'll be 3-4 weeks, etc. etc.
Would be nice if Tesla would just come out and say, "Yeah, for Q1 orders, you're getting it mid-to-late March pretty much no matter when you order in the quarter. B!tch."
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I'm pretty sure these wait times will get less considering the very important new factor of the factory in China being online now. It will be interesting to see how that changes the delivery timelines for the next quarter.Can't speak to overseas markets (which may be different), but for the US, now that I'm thinking back to the Model 3 and what happened with delivery times there last quarter, it seems to work like this:
Delivery wait times will nearly always add up to your car being delivered in the last 1-3 weeks of the quarter you order in.
Only real exception is if you order too late in the quarter to make an end-of-quarter delivery (i.e. you order in the last week or two of the quarter), in which case you get it next quarter, and possibly well into next quarter.
So in other words, the current 8-11 weeks delivery time will steadily collapse down to less and less time as we get closer to quarter-end. Probably 6 weeks from quarter-end, it'll be 4-6 weeks, and 4 weeks from quarter-end it'll be 3-4 weeks, etc. etc.
Would be nice if Tesla would just come out and say, "Yeah, for Q1 orders, you're getting it mid-to-late March pretty much no matter when you order in the quarter. B!tch."
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Tesla’s new China factory only makes cars for China though. Shouldn’t impact the U.S.
I was in a similar predicament debating whether to end my Bolt lease a little early or just wait it out until September 2020 when the lease ends. I knew I’d be in the market for an S although I kind of liked the nimbleness of the 3. I made the mistake of test driving a Performance S last November and over the next few weeks it became too hard to resist not having that car. Two weeks ago in January I test drove a Model 3 Performance just to be doubly sure that an S Performance is what I wanted. The 3 Performance was pretty slick but I think the power would grow on me and I’d regret not having gotten the significant extra power from the Performance S. Other little things also sealed the deal like having the second traditional display, extra cargo room, Sirius XM, Homelink, and free supercharging. Like I said, I could not wait until my lease was over so 2 weeks ago I ordered a white Performance S with 21’s and FSD. If the timelines are right then it looks like this will be the longest 8-11 weeks of my life.
It definitely will. Production from the US factory was for all markets including China. Now the production from the US factory will only have to address the US and Europe, so that's a huge difference not having to makes cars for China.
Uncle Paul
Well-Known Member
On the other hand, it seems like the demand for Model 3 has gone through the roof. Hard to pin down a delivery date.
MichaelP90DL
Active Member
Not as huge as you might think... China was only a bit over 10% of Tesla’s sales in 2019.
Then add that the Model Y is said to be going into production sooner than anticipated (Q2), and the Fremont factory is likely to remain as jammed-up as ever.
Which I guess is a GOOD thing, after all. Would suck if they were only doing say Bolt or e-Tron sales numbers.
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Congrats on your Model S Performance purchase, I'm sure you're gonna love it.
I test-drove one, and... I dunno, maybe I'm a wimp or something, but the 0-60 in 2.4 seconds was more than I needed (or wanted).
I was more than a-okay with the Base S's 0-60 in a 'slow' 3.7 seconds. But then, I don't even like big rollercoasters.
Indeed. It's sort of become a cliche among auto reviewers... it's like they think they sound smart if they call the Model S 'dated'. Wtf?tonybelding said:
The S looks like what it's always looked like, a well-executed rip-off of Aston Martin styling. And thank goodness for that, as Aston Martin makes the most beautiful large sedans in the world, IMO.
Beauty is classic, it does not become dated, no matter what some silly online auto reviewer brays. And once you've nailed it, any change is likely to be for the worse, not better (which is why you often get long-time great-looking cars 'getting hit with the ugly stick' for no good reason, but rather change for the sake of change).
My only beef with the S exterior/form-factor is, "Car's a little large, bro." But the perfect size sedan in my mind is only a smidge smaller... so, no deal-breaker there.
Do wish 20" silver turbine wheels were an option though (perfect blend of practicality and looks). I think they were at one time?
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The battery pack and cooling solution is getting old. New model S cannot charge fast. This is my biggest problem if I was going to get another S.
Also charging rate gets nerfed quickly after X charging miles. Right now the 3 has the newest stuff despite having that one screen that seems tacked on and the cheap looking interior and small rear hatch
Also charging rate gets nerfed quickly after X charging miles. Right now the 3 has the newest stuff despite having that one screen that seems tacked on and the cheap looking interior and small rear hatch
tonybelding
Active Member
I live in Texas, so we have a somewhat different perspective on car size here.
JPoldo
Member
I agree the S battery pack is getting old. My ms comes off-lease in Q3 and I definitely want a new one. Plaid performance doesn't interest me as much as a V3 fast charging system as in m3. Charging to 80% in 12 minutes has great value. FOMO is a big concern. Maybe Tesla allows extending lease 3 months. What is best guess on new battery pack launch?
Check out the Electrek news site... there was an article about that just yesterday.
Apparently someone hacked the latest Tesla software or firmware update and found out some things.
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Might be Q2 for all i know. It could be a standard range battery reintroduced for that matter.
Let's hope they introduce model 3 style cooling and the new battery tech. In that case they will dump prices on inventory ravens I suspect. I'm any case you should wait and NOT buy now.
Ordered a MS LR on 1/14/20 and told 4-7 weeks.
just got a call this week that it’s 1-5 weeks out, BY end of Feb but most likely sooner.
selling my 2016 MX 75D to replace it with this MS LR bc I need the extra range.
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