I think it's gonna be very small quantities.
Austin is a massive WIP and there's nowhere yet to even load transports.
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When is structural battery pack & 4680 cells coming & Why are you not waiting until then?
- Thread starter Guvnah
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Austin is a massive WIP and there's nowhere yet to even load transports.
TomServo
Active Member
I have a 2020 LR AWD Y with Performance Boost, so I’m very happy and content to wait until ALL the facts are known about the NEW AND IMPROVED Y with the 4680 batteries. But since my Y is paid for as soon as all those unknowns are answered I will trade UP.
Am prepared to wait as long as necessary.
Am prepared to wait as long as necessary.
It's not about the batteries. They're just an enabler you won't notice directly.
It's about the chassis - 400lbs lighter, stiffer, more consistent construction due to Front plus Rear Megacasts finally getting integrated with a structural pack.
You'll get similar range to current MY offerings, but the handling / braking, body panel gaps, and paint quality will be better.
Maybe, just maybe, Tesla will make some improvements to the suspension. I'm sure they're aware of the variable reviews.
There will be other tidbits too....Tesla markets cars like PC's.
I am taking delivery of a FREMONT MY LR in Bonita Springs Florida between Feb 28 and March 10- Just received the VIN. I'm so bummed because I doubt I will be getting the 4680 structural pack. I was certain that living in the southern tip of FL would guarantee a MY delivery from Austin with the 4680's in 2022. Maybe if I had ordered Blue 
Oh, well. Fit and Finish should be great coming off of a tried and true production line, according to Elon. Delaying delivery now would put me at the end of the line (August!) and potentially cause Tesla to cancel the order forcing me to reorder for thousands more. I'm at least expecting Gigacastings in front and rear. I'll compare it to my Performance MY delivered in Sept 2020 and let you know.
Oh, well. Fit and Finish should be great coming off of a tried and true production line, according to Elon. Delaying delivery now would put me at the end of the line (August!) and potentially cause Tesla to cancel the order forcing me to reorder for thousands more. I'm at least expecting Gigacastings in front and rear. I'll compare it to my Performance MY delivered in Sept 2020 and let you know.
It's 99.9% certain that you will not be getting the structural pack with 4680's. Your VIN will tell you.I am taking delivery of a FREMONT MY LR in Bonita Springs Florida between Feb 28 and March 10- Just received the VIN. I'm so bummed because I doubt I will be getting the 4680 structural pack. I was certain that living in the southern tip of FL would guarantee a MY delivery from Austin with the 4680's in 2022. Maybe if I had ordered Blue
not possible. look at photos of the chassis designed for structural pack. there is a huge hole where floor is in current chassis. completely different body.
Giga Texas ain't happening soon. It remains a massive WIP.I am taking delivery of a FREMONT MY LR in Bonita Springs Florida between Feb 28 and March 10- Just received the VIN. I'm so bummed because I doubt I will be getting the 4680 structural pack. I was certain that living in the southern tip of FL would guarantee a MY delivery from Austin with the 4680's in 2022. Maybe if I had ordered Blue
Judging by the Fremont-built MYLR I took delivery of 1/16, VIN 356xxx, the fit and finish, paint, solid construction, and general qualities of the car will please you.
I even think the suspension has improved on the demo car I drove last June before ordering.
However, Fremont has yet to implement the Front Megacast, which requires the 4680 structural battery pack, so neither of those features will be in your MY.
The stacks of front megacasts piled up on the lot at Fremont have not been touched, although there are signs the factory is prepping for the new v2.0 chassis build.
It is likely you will get the Ryzen MMC and LiOn low voltage battery, as mine did. Updated matrix headlights are a blog favorite but not US DoT legal, so don't expect that.
SageBrush
REJECT Fascism
SageBrush
REJECT Fascism
I agree with this in part.
The structural pack with 4680 cells will have reduced internal resistance. I expect faster charging.
Second, the structural pack has room for more capacity. I don't expect Tesla to give that out for free, but it very well may give us interesting consumer choices to ponder.
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It's clear the structural battery pack enables variable kWh capacities.
Faster charging is speculation at this point. It could be marginally faster - but that wouldn't stop the blogs from renewed clickbait hype.
I'm guessing 18 months before we see significant changes in range offerings, since competition isn't there and will be challenged just to get sufficient batteries in volume.
Tesla could make a coup-de-grace move and offer less and longer range options at various price points. It would be a death blow for the competition.
But such a move is unnecessary. Aside from the order backlog, Tesla has many needs for batteries with the SEMI in protoype builds and the CT coming next.
It's a fair ask but there's no info.
No one is aware of new molds being needed at Fremont... they've made 200,000+ rear castings (all used in current MY's) as well as several thousands of front castings.
And of course China has been cranking out MY's as well, some 300K last year.
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Terminator857
Active Member
Roughly 1 million cars.
SageBrush
REJECT Fascism
Everything is speculation at this point, but Tesla is on record for the internal resistance improvement, and physics will be the same a few months from now.
HERE is speculation:
I'll plant my flag at 200 EPA miles in 17.5 minutes from a V3 Supercharger.
Terminator857
Active Member
How does that compare to current?
Any speculations on the chances of:
1. Increased range?
2. Locked battery and later offering an upgrade?
What do you think Elon means when he says the Model Y structural battery pack is next level?
The battery pack is 'next level' because it's a stressed, structural component of the chassis. It's also a cleaner coolant circulation system.
It enables the use of more cast chassis components - adds the Front Megacast which saves even more weight than the rear megacast did.
Since the pack will be structural, the chassis also no longer needs a floorpan to gain rigidity. The pack provides it. More weight saved.
Range and charging times are all speculation at this point.
I don't expect more range; Tesla will just build a pack that provides a range similar to what's being delivered now. 4680 batteries are still precious.
Tesla makes more profit on the car., from keeping the margins on the batteries and saving steps in the manufacturing process.
I had my MYLR at an SC and got 195 miles added in 25 minutes. started it at 20% and left at 80%.
I don't see that as any kind of barrier for my use case, and it's the 2170 battery pack.
The 4680 is mostly to Tesla profit benefit. The buyer will have better resale value, and a better built chassis.
SageBrush
REJECT Fascism
Current is about 150 kW average for the bottom 45% of SoC. A good 5 - 7 minute savings for 200 EPA miles charged
- 1. More kWh, more range. But when that is offered I expect a different sub-model. The XLR (extra long range) . It is true that weight savings would improve range and acceleration, but for all I know Tesla will reduce the battery kWh to keep the range the same.
- 2. Very much doubt a locked battery; in fact, I doubt the XLR for a while.
- 3. Mostly space and packing. Good for manufacturing but not really important to you the consumer. Tesla has said that the form will improve driving dynamics because the center of gravity position is improved.
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SageBrush
REJECT Fascism
One comment about this I should have included:
Tesla loves incrementalism. When they make a large jump in performance, it is typically split up into a series of mini-improvements to the consumer. I think it is done this way to maximize revenue for one; and second, to not piss off too badly the people that just bought a car. Those people are unhappy anyway, but they would really be howling if e.g. the 330 mile range Tesla of today becomes the 400 mile Tesla of 24 hours later.
I can imagine the Model Y LR bumping up from 330 to 340 when 4680 cells are introduced into the structural battery, but no more than that without a price increase. This is actually why I expect a sub-model. Tesla cannot increase the prices of cars ordered but not delivered.
Terminator857
Active Member
They did with the Model X. Tesla will just cancel the order if they don't like it.
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