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When will we have a Basic Minimum Income?

When will we (The US) have a Basic Minimum income?

  • Never. Have you seen Elysium? Yeah... get ready.

    Votes: 76 53.9%
  • ~5 years

    Votes: 5 3.5%
  • ~10 years

    Votes: 6 4.3%
  • ~20 years

    Votes: 27 19.1%
  • ~40 years

    Votes: 17 12.1%
  • >100 years

    Votes: 10 7.1%

  • Total voters
    141
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It's about economic stimulus
Yep.

It's about getting 'water' back in the 'sump'; your pumps are cavitating... they need water... gotta fix it; you don't put ideological strings on where the water comes from. Why do people insist on ideological strings when the economy is in danger of 'cavititating'.

Consumption = Production. We need to increase our consumption as productivity rises even as employment plummets. If BMI isn't the solution then what is?
 
Robots, or automation, are not the problem: Too little worker power is
This article says robots are not the problem.
"..we should focus on policy choices that lead to things that truly threaten workers and their families like eroding labor standards, declining unionization, elevated unemployment, unbalanced globalization, and declining top tax rates."
Their argument is that since the recent capital expense growth rate doesn't match the early software boom (90s), humans aren't being replaced. Maybe this has merit, but it seems arguable that because technology costs have dropped precipitously, a slowed rate would be expected even with an expansion of automation hardware and software.

I'd be interested in seeing that chart adjusted with the cost depreciation. It would give a better sense of the extent of acquisitions in that realm. Still, I think it's difficult to distill down to how much they spend vs. labor output.

Just as a heads up, the Economic Policy Institute is funded heavily by organized labor/unions. Read in that context, their piece does seem to have a "protect the worker" slant. Not that this in itself negates their argument.
 
Their argument is that since the recent capital expense growth rate doesn't match the early software boom (90s), humans aren't being replaced. Maybe this has merit, but it seems arguable that because technology costs have dropped precipitously, a slowed rate would be expected even with an expansion of automation hardware and software.

I'd be interested in seeing that chart adjusted with the cost depreciation. It would give a better sense of the extent of acquisitions in that realm. Still, I think it's difficult to distill down to how much they spend vs. labor output.

Just as a heads up, the Economic Policy Institute is funded heavily by organized labor/unions. Read in that context, their piece does seem to have a "protect the worker" slant. Not that this in itself negates their argument.
I agree. I'm not sure I "buy" all of their argument. Lower investment in automation could be for a lot of reasons. It could be that labor is now so cheap that it is cheaper than automation.
I am aware of the EPI "bias". I get emails from them regularly. I find them interesting and sometimes I agree with them. Just thought it would be interesting to see their perspective.
This part that I quoted at the end is, I think, their real message FWIW:
"..we should focus on policy choices that lead to things that truly threaten workers and their families like eroding labor standards, declining unionization, elevated unemployment, unbalanced globalization, and declining top tax rates."
 
Robots, or automation, are not the problem: Too little worker power is
This article says robots are not the problem.
"..we should focus on policy choices that lead to things that truly threaten workers and their families like eroding labor standards, declining unionization, elevated unemployment, unbalanced globalization, and declining top tax rates."

What I find amusing about articles such as this is that they appear to operate under the assumption that there's some 'conservation of employment' law of economics. There's no such law. I totally agree that automation is good in that it's going to bring great abundance with little effort. It's also going to bring great challenges in that it's going to bring great abundance with little effort.

Automation will create more jobs... but not nearly as many as it eliminates. Automation will create more spending power but it will be concentrated in fewer hands. As Robert Reich pointed out in 'inequality for all' the problem with the wealthy isn't that they make too much... it's that they spend too little'. More and more capital will stagnate at the top and the economy will begin to lag.

"..we should focus on policy choices that lead to things that truly threaten workers and their families like eroding labor standards, declining unionization, elevated unemployment, unbalanced globalization, and declining top tax rates."

Agreed; Which a BMI would help address. This is one of those rare instances that it's actually more beneficial to treat the symptoms than the 'disease'. The global economy is so interwoven that you can't really eliminate one negative consequence without also effecting a positive one. Global trade has a lot of negative effects but overall it's very positive.

PBS just finished a series where they looked at the economically disadvantaged that voted for Trump. There's a lot of people out there that are really hurting... especially in coal country. More and more people are being left behind and it's only getting worse.
 
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Lud·dite
ˈlədˌīt/
noun
noun: Luddite; plural noun: Luddites
  1. a member of any of the bands of English workers who destroyed machinery, especially in cotton and woolen mills, that they believed was threatening their jobs (1811–16).
    • a person opposed to increased industrialization or new technology.
      "a small-minded Luddite resisting progress"
 
Lud·dite
ˈlədˌīt/
noun
noun: Luddite; plural noun: Luddites
  1. a member of any of the bands of English workers who destroyed machinery, especially in cotton and woolen mills, that they believed was threatening their jobs (1811–16).
    • a person opposed to increased industrialization or new technology.
      "a small-minded Luddite resisting progress"

Who here is opposed to increased industrialization or new technology? I haven't seen a single post claiming automation is a 'bad' thing. Only that it's inevitable and we need to be prepared for the challenges that come with progress.
 
Lud·dite

Please at least try to understand the issue before posting these sorts of unhelpful retorts.

Nobody here is advocating the destruction of machinery, or opposing new technology, or resisting progress.

The fundamental issue is how to economically organize a society where automation and AI render a significant % of jobs obsolete while concurrently not producing enough replacement jobs.
 
So much of this discussion is beyond my comprehension. It is way too abstract. However, I do have some tangential questions that have not been addressed here; perhaps they have been considered in the materials that I have not viewed.

My first question has to do with any increase in population because of the lack of work and other activity in people's lives. There are anecdotes (perhaps even research too; I do not know) that when a large segment of the workforce is unemployed due to seasonal constraints, that the birth rate explodes thirty-nine to fifty weeks later until these individuals return to work. Then it tapers down. Would having a permanent Basic Income result in a population explosion in 30-40 years that will need even more funds to disburse, and so on?

My second question has to do with evolution. We evolved with advanced brains to survive in a hunting and gathering mode. Lifespans were relatively short (compared with today.) I am sure early Man did not have problems with obesity, high blood pressure and other issues that plague us today. Some species like coyotes have adapted to man's presence. They can survive equally well in the wilderness or in urban settings. Other species have declined or become extinct because they could not adapt to changing climates, urbanization or Man. Yet others have evolved with variations or mutations that enabled the species to continue on, but slightly different from its ancestors. What is in store for Man in 2,000+ years if most of us have no need to work, exercise our brains and our bodies, and actually have some purpose to our lives?
 
So much of this discussion is beyond my comprehension. It is way too abstract. However, I do have some tangential questions that have not been addressed here; perhaps they have been considered in the materials that I have not viewed.

My first question has to do with any increase in population because of the lack of work and other activity in people's lives. There are anecdotes (perhaps even research too; I do not know) that when a large segment of the workforce is unemployed due to seasonal constraints, that the birth rate explodes thirty-nine to fifty weeks later until these individuals return to work. Then it tapers down. Would having a permanent Basic Income result in a population explosion in 30-40 years that will need even more funds to disburse, and so on?

My second question has to do with evolution. We evolved with advanced brains to survive in a hunting and gathering mode. Lifespans were relatively short (compared with today.) I am sure early Man did not have problems with obesity, high blood pressure and other issues that plague us today. Some species like coyotes have adapted to man's presence. They can survive equally well in the wilderness or in urban settings. Other species have declined or become extinct because they could not adapt to changing climates, urbanization or Man. Yet others have evolved with variations or mutations that enabled the species to continue on, but slightly different from its ancestors. What is in store for Man in 2,000+ years if most of us have no need to work, exercise our brains and our bodies, and actually have some purpose to our lives?
Veblen has some thoughts on this (Wikipedia)
In The Theory of the Leisure Class, Veblen writes critically of conspicuous consumption and its function in social-class consumerism and social stratification.[37] Reflecting historically, he traces said economic behaviors back to the beginnings of the division of labor, or during tribal times. Upon the start of a division of labor, high status individuals within the community practiced hunting and war, notably less labor-intensive and less economically productive work. Low status individuals, on the other hand, practiced activities recognized as more economically productive and more labor-intensive, such as farming and cooking.[41] High status individuals, as Veblen explains, could instead afford to live their lives leisurely (hence their title as the leisure class), engaging in symbolic economic participation, rather than practical economic participation. These individuals could engage in conspicuous leisure for extended periods of time, simply following pursuits that evoked a higher social-status. Rather than participating in conspicuous consumption, the leisure class lived lives of conspicuous leisure as a marker of high status.[42] The leisure class protected and reproduced their social status and control within the tribe through, for example, their participation in war-time activities, which while they were rarely needed, still rendered their lower social class counterparts dependent upon them.[43] During modern industrial times, Veblen described the leisure class as those exempt from industrial labor. Instead, he explains, the leisure class participated in intellectual or artistic endeavors to display their freedom from the economic need to participate in economically productive manual labor. In essence, not having to perform labor-intensive activities did not mark higher social status, but rather, higher social status meant that one would not have to perform such duties.[44]

Perhaps we can have a new liesure class?
 
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My first question has to do with any increase in population because of the lack of work and other activity in people's lives. There are anecdotes (perhaps even research too; I do not know) that when a large segment of the workforce is unemployed due to seasonal constraints, that the birth rate explodes thirty-nine to fifty weeks later until these individuals return to work. Then it tapers down. Would having a permanent Basic Income result in a population explosion in 30-40 years that will need even more funds to disburse, and so on?

Birthrate is inversely proportional to education level. Not free time. It varies from person to person but the active portion of baby making isn't very time intensive... ;)

For example... the Netherlands has a 32 hour work week but a birth rate of 10.3/1000. The average american works much more but in the US the birth rate is 13.4/1000.

You also don't see birthrates rise with wealth... they fall.
 
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As Robert Reich pointed out in 'inequality for all' the problem with the wealthy isn't that they make too much... it's that they spend too little'. More and more capital will stagnate at the top and the economy will begin to lag.
Correct. Billionaire (and Tesla owner) Nick Hanauer explains it in his TED Talk, Rich People Don't Create Jobs
 
This is actually somewhat on topic. Since automation and technology allows wealth concentration at the top with less and less employment (see: Facebook, Uber, AirBnB, etc.), billionaires are less and less of job creators than ever before. And the truth is, whether or not they were job creators is really up to interpretation. Today, I think the data strongly supports that they're not. The money is better in the hands of consumers, so long as we're living in a consumer economy.

$1000 in my hands goes into my savings. $1000 in the hands of someone with less means goes back into the economy. That's not the whole story, but it's a huge part of it.
 
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